COMMENT: Marty; I do not know how you have accomplished creating your model with such extreme accuracy regarding numbers and time, but I do believe you have proven your point. To have a number in gold at 1044 and it stops at 1045 and then for the rally it stopped 30 cents from your weekly bullish reversal and on time, I can see why they conspired to keep you in prison to get the code and when they couldn’t get that, they tried to kill you. I believe most analysts plagiarize you because nobody wants to admit what you have accomplished. They all want to rob you but never give you credit for showing a new way forward.

Well done

BH

REPLY: Well from a market investment standpoint, yes this has impressed me as well. I am astonished at how precise markets are so this was never a theory I pursued to prove, it was something that smacked me in the face saying hey stupid; look at this! Yet there is something more than just this degree of accuracy emerging from the model. Milton Friedman made me see what I was doing was important beyond simply trading. The model is proving markets are not random every day and the implication of that means government is INCAPABLE of manipulating society. This is why I argue against these gold promoters that explaining being wrong is because of bank manipulation. They are condemning us to the same thinking process of Karl Marx from which we cannot escape assuming there is always some higher power controlling our destiny. That higher power is the collective behavior of all combined and that can neither be manipulated by government and central banks, or rich capitalists. To explain the economy going to hell in a hand-basket, they they claim the “rich” are doing this so they can get it all.  These claims are terribly wrong and absurd. If only some group possessed all wealth, what good would it be if there is no place to spend it? We are collapsing because nobody can prevent it. This is our destiny because people do try to manipulate the system for self-interest like buying politicians, but they undermine the very foundation upon which they rely.

Laissez-faire economics was correct. Larry Summers admitted he could not forecast because the economy is far too complex. That means you cannot manipulate society and it is best NOT TO INTERFERE. If you cannot forecast what it will do, then it is impossible to also predict the result of your attempted manipulation; in his case negative interest rates. Today it is Goldman Sachs buying government, centuries before it was Rothschilds. and before that it was the Medici. All corporations dies just like individuals. Just because John D. Rockefeller had talent to build an empire, it does not follow that his heir possess the same talent. It is extremely rare to ever find someone’s son to be as smart as a famous parent. What happened to the offspring of Einstein? Most would tear apart what their fathers created as did Commodus who destroyed his father’s designs for the Roman Empire or Caracalla who killed his own brother to seize the power inherited from his father Septimus Severus. This was the fatal flaw of monarchy.

If I had one purpose in this life, I believe it was to highlight this fallacy and hopefully with the collapse of government, this time we will turn toward freedom. That is my concern for my posterity. I have an expiration date so I would not have to live in the horrible world of control suppression. But what we are leaving behind is something I would not be proud of. So I do what I do because I am compelled to try to stand up to the headwind of oppression.

The elitist press are starting to realize that they are the problem. “Trump voters are a coalition of the dispossessed. They have suffered lost jobs, lost wages, lost dreams. The American system is not working for them, so naturally they are looking for something else. Moreover, many in the media, especially me, did not understand how they would express their alienation. We expected Trump to fizzle because we were not socially intermingled with his supporters and did not listen carefully enough. For me, it’s a lesson that I have to change the way I do my job if I’m going to report accurately on this country,” wrote David Brooks of the New York Times who had endorsed Obama.

This is why I call the people the “great unwashed” because politicians and journalists are disconnected from reality, and combined, they will absolutely bring about the collapse of the United States. We will, no doubt, see the USA ultimately split into at least four separate nations that are divided but still “united” as states. It has been set in motion by this elitist, socialistic bullshit, and the people are stupid enough to listen to whatever they preach as they line their pockets. I am not writing about this from afar. I have even attended the White House Correspondence Dinner where the president came and delivered a speech. So I have been inside, but I am also on the outside for I read the tea leaves of the economy; not what Harvard professors teach.

The elite press and the political class preach to us from their ivory towers, but would never dare mingle with the great unwashed. They are clueless as to how the American dream has collapsed into a nightmare, and negative interest rates are the last straw. From the perspective of someone like Larry Summers who says behind close doors, “If these bastards won’t spend everything they have, well damn it, we will force them by charging them a tax to save!”

Then we have the elitist class of analysts who regurgitate whatever the political elite want to hear. Since they are too busy kissing ass, they too never bother to look outside the window in their ivory towers.

The hoard of people they have conjured up to try to prevent people from turning up at Trump rallies demonstrates two things. First, these people stand for nothing and are using force and violence to try to intimidate others not to vote for Trump. That is a very serious statement and it warns that this country really is on the brink of civil war. Secondly, the “haves” get everything from government, demand high taxes, and rib those who have anything they want. They are against those who are disenfranchised and are turning to Trump because Hillary and Cruz offer the more of same and no change. The media will now use its manipulation to try to convince people not to vote for Trump so they can keep their bullshit political analysts and friends in power.

The last time we saw these types of polarized differences was in the decades that led to the Civil War. During that time, there was a banking crisis created by Andrew Jackson that led to the massive collapse of state banks and the sovereign debt defaults by states during the 1840s. When the Supreme Court upheld slaves as “property” to supposedly prevent violence by alienating the South, it proved to be the final straw that caused everything to erupt.

With negative interest rates, rising taxes, and a crisis in pensions, the American dream is finished. The elitist press have not quite figured that out yet. They are too busy attacking Trump to help their political friends. I have been at such dinners; I have watched it first hand. Sorry – it’s game over. Yes my name is published in the list of attendees at Table 143, the guest of Bill Kristol, Weekly Standard.

The problem with politics, we do NOT get what we pay for. This is why career politicians just have to go. They are professional liars on both sides of the aisle.

The weak close in the US followed through into the open for Asia and we saw prices gap lower across the board. The Nikkei did attempt to break higher around lunch but was short-livid being dragged down by oil, yet again! Both Shanghai and Hang Seng closed around 1.5% lower as increased talk of US rate hikes next month continue to circulate. The PBOC fixed the Yuan today at 6.5150 which is a little weaker compared to Wednesdays 6.4936 set. In late US trading Asian futures continue to drift lower when we see losses of an additional 0.75%.
In Europe, we saw a similar picture to Asian trading with all indices closing on their lows. Between 1.5 and 2% declines were the result of nerves ahead of a shaky US market and the long weekend. Finally, we see the much discussed bank merger between Banco Popolare and Banca Popolare di Milano and has been agreed. One dealer described the merger as a “comfort blanket” but with both banks shares declining 5% today one would still left looking for reassurance.

 
US market looked shaky at one stage but by mid-afternoon was well off of its lows and looking to recover for the long weekend. Trade is obviously nervous but then that is always the case when the exchange is closed for an extended period. Upon return, we have another short week culminating with the employment report at the end.

It was a similar picture for both Oil and Gold prices today. Having hit their lows early in the session, it took the remainder of the day to recover and even encouraged a smidgen higher close. It was a good performance on the day but does not escape the fact that oil is still around 5% lower on the week.

Having suffered a poor few days trading we saw a healthy bounce in GBP today. Dealers were telling us today that 3M Vol had been extremely well bid recently taking Vol up to 15%. Cable is being priced that the popular trade sees it declining through 1.3650. More on this next week.

US Fixed-Income market had one of the quietest days on record, we were informed. With US 10’s trading in an almost 3bp range and even that resulted in a parallel shift of 2bp higher across the curve. 10yr closed at 1.90% with 2/10 closing at +103bp. German Bund continues to tighten closing this evening at 0.175% the spread +172.5bp. Italy 10yr close 1.29%, Greece 10yr 8.48%, Turkey 9.98% and UK Gilt 1.45%.

Most core market are closed tomorrow but we will still hve data releases. In France and the US we have Q4 GDP releases expected. France previous was 0.3% and US 0.9%.
France also sees Consumer Confidence expected at 96.

Today will be the close for the week and this will be an important indicator. A closing in gold below 1237.50 will warn of weakness. We have important technical resistance at the 1245 level and a closing back below that breakout line will also warn that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Gold bounced off of the Weekly Bullish Reversal and came within 30 cents. That is not a very good indication that a continued rally should be expected. Typically, those who trade emotionally end up buying the high in anticipation of further advancement.

When we look at the Dow Jones, here too we failed to exceed the Weekly Bullish at 17750 after reaching only 17648. Last week’s closing was 17602 and a lower closing today will warn that the advance is starting to fizzle out. We have not been able to exceed the downtrend line technically. A closing below 17124 would be an outright sell signal.

Looking at the euro, the peak came in the week of the 17th at 11342. We do not think we can reach that 11600 level. In the case of the euro, the market has been unable to exceed the breakout line which currently stands at 11400. The oscillators are turning down as well. A closing below 11214 will be bearish, and a closing below 11087 will be a serious sell signal. Thereafter, a breach of the 10700 level will be devastating.

In Crude, the breakout line stands at 4347. Here too, we stopped just shy of it. We already elected a Weekly Bearish last Friday. The next key area to watch will be the 3400 level.

Overall, we are looking to May to provide the next turning point. So pay attention. If we start to elect bearish reversals on the weekly level, we may indeed see a decline unfold.

The ramifications for the refugee crisis in Europe are crossing the “pond” and arriving in the USA. There are mainstream politicians now calling for visa requirements for EU citizens because they do not know who are terrorists among them. Even Ted Cruz has been forced to jump sides after adopting Trump’s positions in part. Where Trump wanted to ban Muslims, Cruz is looking to ban all Europeans by forcing them to get a visa to visit the USA.

Merkel’s policy for refugees has moved beyond just a crisis. She is now undoing decades of free trade. It is more than just suspending the Schengen Agreement for free travel within Europe. Now, Cruz says he will introduce legislation to require visas from Europeans since Merkel has let a real mess inside of Europe. This is making the BREXIT look even more probable.

If the future of the euro was in question before, its future is appearing very dim to say the least. Of course, the politicians in Brussels will never admit that what they have created is total chaos. The real question becomes: how long can the euro survive with a central government losing both respect and confidence of its people? It looks like ISIS wins.

Good Friday

The NYSE will close on Friday November 25, 2016. CME Equity products, Interest Rates, FX, Grains, CME Europe, and Korea Exchange (KRX) will be closed on Friday.

Socialism is dead. The new proposal for failed banks moving forward will be for the bank to seize the money of its depositors and issue them stock in its place. This is a “bail-in” that pretends to be more compassionate. This is the new proposal circulating around in Canada championed by Justin Trudeau.

Goldman Sachs is at the center of a probe into the rigging of U.S. Treasury Auctions, which was the same allegation that resulted in the Treasury shutting down Salomon Brothers in 1991. I wrote about this incident when Salomon was caught. The fact that such rigging in commodities markets was standard for decades was common knowledge. When the commodity industry took over, the practices of such schemes infested Wall Street. Suddenly, what was standard in pork bellies became standard in the U.S. Treasury auctions.

Salomon’s #1 competitor was Goldman Sachs who realized they could be shut down if they were caught doing the same game. It is my belief that this is when a strategy was developed at Goldman Sachs to do a reverse takeover of government. Suddenly, CEOs of the firm infiltrated politics with huge donations and won the prize of U.S. Secretary of the Treasury twice. Draghi is ex-Goldman and now sits at the head of the ECB. He is also a member of the Troika, as is the PM of Australia. I believe they installed people like Larry Summers and bought the Clinton White House to ensure that Glass Steagall was repealed. I believe they own Hillary right down to her pantyhose. They were involved in creating Greek debt as well as their alleged involvement in Malaysia. The German TV ZDF ran a show exposing how Goldman Sachs was ruling the world. It has been removed from the internet.

The curious fact here is that this is starting to leak out to the mainstream press. This is most likely not a coincidence and will have some ramifications, certainly for Hillary as well as Cruz given they both have connections to Goldman Sachs. Hillary has refused to release her transcripts of speeches at Goldman and Cruz “forgot” that they them lent him money. I have written before about my contest with Goldman Sachs. They kept me in prison and demanded the source code to our model. In today’s world of information, ignorance can only be a matter of choice.

The case of a former Federal Reserve Bank of New York employee Jason Gross was given ZERO jail time for leaking of confidential documents to a friend at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. That is insider trading which justified time behind bars. Despite the fact that prosecutors claimed they were disappointed, that was just a show. To put him on trial would mean he would have the right to call people from Goldman Sachs. Then the person at Goldman who obtained such documents would have to reveal what they did with them and how did the firm act upon it. The shut the whole case down, a $2,000 fine and no prison time was a whitewash to say the least.

I have warned that each terrorist group seems to act in their own cyclical manner, and the cycle that evolves is a fingerprint to each group. Now, it turns out that it has been confirmed that all three of the bombers in Brussels had links to the cell in Paris.

These attacks are strategic in the sense that ISIS understands what it is doing. There was a newsletter, “al-Naba,” which was published a few weeks after the Paris attack. There, ISIS stated its goals as reported by the Intercept that “the Paris raid has caused the creation of a state of instability in European countries which will have long-term effects.” The article went on to state that this would be “the weakening of European cohesion, including demands to repeal the Schengen Agreement…which permits free traveling in Europe without checkpoints.”

From this perspective, ISIS appears to be waging strategic war against Europe. Indeed, they have instigated the pretend “refugee crisis” that has really been a migration at best, if not a covert invasion. Of course not every person is an invader. When over 1 million people are sent to Europe, as we can see, it does not take thousands to destabilize Europe. The big question: Will Europe now assemble an army to invade Syria/Iraq to try to save itself?

Obama praised Merkel for accepting refugees on August 27, 2015. On August 24, Merkel condemned violent protests outside of a shelter for asylum seekers in a town in the east of Germany. Merkel had been criticized by some for not coming out against the far-right earlier. She declared: “There was an aggressive mood against foreigners there [in East Germany] that isn’t acceptable in any way.”

It was September 10, 2015, just 20 days before the turning point of the ECM on September 30, 2015, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that there’s “no legal limit” to the number of people her country can shelter who are fleeing political persecution — and also made it clear that people who aren’t entitled to asylum must return home quickly. Merkel tried to equate the refugee crisis to taking in East Germany, where she was from. However, by November 20, 2015, Der Spegel reported she was reversing her position precisely 51.6 days from the turning point.

I am always stunned at how many things function pursuant to the 8.6 frequency. It certainly appears that this entire ISIS event prompted Russia to invade on the ECM date and Merkel to reverse her position publicly 51 days later. There certainly appears to be a negative view for Europe overall.