Central banks do not play games with the markets but it sure feels like we are being played by someone! Earlier this year the Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank all had similar balance sheets at around $4.5 trillion. As we know, over the past ten years all three have risen from lower levels but have […]
QUESTION: Hi Martin, I recently asked an Economist for a major Financial Institute the following question. Will the Fed continue to pay interest on “excess reserves” after they start to reduce their balance sheet? Their answer was yes, as it is a way to control short-term rates for private sector borrowers. I am not able […]
QUESTION: There is a new trend that central banks are investing in the stock markets Is this true? What is the impact of this move? ANSWER: Yes. The reason has been rather straight forward. The only game in town has been US government bonds. Many have seen this as a problem the defeats diversification. Consequently, […]
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to begin reducing its bond purchases gradually tampering its stimulation program of Quantitative Easing (QE). Nevertheless, reliable sources tell of the ECB being extremely cautious fearing what will happen if buyers do not appear and rates begin to rise sharply. The difference between the ECB and the Fed […]
The head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, has warned politicians against turning back financial market regulation, yet she herself does not comprehend what the regulation truly accomplished. She has warned that any adjustments to the framework should be discreet. The Jackson Hole gathering turned out to be financially tense. Yellen admonished politicians stating bluntly that […]
General view of the buildings of the Court of Justice of the European Communities It has taken almost 10 years for the ECB’s controversial government bond purchases to finally reach the European Court of Justice (ECJ) to be reviewed as to their constitutionality. There have always been serious questions whether the PSPP (Public Sector Purchase […]
The European Central Bank (ECB) left its stimulus programs and record low interest rates unchanged. Pundits were seeing some cyclical signs of what they hoped was a spreading recovery in the 19 countries that use the euro currency rather than just a bounce in anticipation of tourist season. The ECB dropped any wording that it could […]
It was only last week that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) was rumoured to be competing in the currency market, which was coincidentally followed by a Moody’s downgrade. The action demonstrated signs that positions have been cut at a loss for anyone who attempted to short the Yuan. The O/N (overnight) and T/N (Tom-next) rates ballooned today which makes […]
While the Fed may be raising rates, there is still a flight to quality underway that is giving a bid to US Treasury issues. Low Treasury yields may remain the norm even if the Federal Reserve raises rates again. At about 2.25%, 10-year yields have dropped to 2017 lows, even with the central bank signaling an […]
Minutes from the Fed’s May policy meeting showed board members thought that if jobs growth remains healthy with a rebound in investment and consumer spending then rates could rise “soon”, which many took to mean June. The economy has shown some signs of weakness, the Fed still thinks its broad strength would justify winding down […]
