PRIVATE BLOG – Dow’s Bear Trap

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PRIVATE BLOG – Gold – Unstoppable?

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Consumer confidence has tanked due to tariff fears. A Redfin survey conducted from April 10 to 14 found that nearly a quarter (24%) of American respondents have canceled major purchases, such as homes, due to tariffs, with an additional 32% stating they plan to delay any major purchases until they regain confidence in the economy.

Fifty-five percent of respondents said they are less likely to make a major purchase in 2025, with 39% saying they are “much less likely” to do so. On the other hand, one in 10 respondents stated that they plan to make a major purchase immediately, expecting prices to continue rising. Unsurprisingly, Republicans have more confidence in the current economic plan, with 19% saying they are “much less likely” to make a purchase this year compared to 60% of Democrats.

The US real estate market remains in a buyer’s market. Housing prices have been on the rise for the past five years, inventory in high-demand areas remains low, and mortgage rates have not waned in a meaningful way. Existing home sales fell 1.3% in March on a monthly basis, marking a six-month low of 4.15 million units. Pending sales declined 5.2% in major metro areas, with homes spending an average of 53 days on the market. Around 17.5% of sellers cut their existing home sale prices, a high not seen since 2016.

While we are not seeing this trend with real estate, Americans are rushing to purchase autos before prices rise. Auto sales in March were the strongest on record since January 2023 as consumers rush to secure pre-tariff pricing. Auto sales in March were up 17.3% YoY for retail, with fleet sales increasing 5% on an annual basis. No one expects auto prices to decline in the near future, and people who need a vehicle are rushing to finalize purchases before costs begin to rise.

Cox Automotive found that new retail sales increased nearly every week since the tariffs were announced, with “a strong surge at month-end with the import tariff announcement creating urgency in the final five days of the month.” J.D. Power announced that automakers have been offering higher discounts and incentives worth an average of $3,059 to attract potential buyers.

Now, Trump has hinted that he may delay certain auto tariffs on foreign vehicles due to the backlash. American consumers are still rushing into the market to purchase cars at “pre-tariff prices,” as everyone expects prices to rise. The real estate boom post-pandemic has ended, and the majority are not looking to purchase a home at this time. Our computer models indicate that we will see a reversal in trend back to a seller’s market by August 2028.  The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.

It is never a good sign when consumers lose confidence in the economy. This will become one of the reasons for declining GDP, as consumer spending is absolutely critical to America’s overall economy.

Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs has attempted to paint herself as a moderate in recent years. This has become an increasingly popular trend among Democrats as their party’s popularity plunges. But do not be fooled as these “moderates” still promote “progressive” policies. Hobbs has vetoed Senate Bill 1164, the Arizona ICE Act, which will make it increasingly difficult for federal agencies to deport illegal migrants.

The Arizona ICE Act would have banned state and local governments from interfering with federal immigration policies. We are seeing this happen throughout the nation, from Maryland to California to New York, as governors and senators have taken it upon themselves to prevent the Trump Administration from deporting people who entered the US illegally. Instead of focusing on the economic drain that migrants have caused legal, law-abiding citizens, these leftist lawmakers are spending resources and time to ensure that migrants, all within their voter base, remain in the US.

“You and I both disagreed with the previous administration’s immigration policies, and we may both disagree with the next administration’s immigration policies,” Hobbs wrote in a letter to Republican Senate President Warren Petersen. This is another instance of the Democrats not having a firm footing on policy. Do you support illegal migration? It should be a yes or no answer.

Hobbs goes on to say that she has worked to stop fentanyl from entering ports of entry, another casualty of open border policies. She noted cartel concerns and maintaining safe communities, but still believes that ICE should not have the ability to deport migrants residing in Arizona. “I will continue to work with the federal government on true border security, but we should not force state and local officials to take marching orders from Washington, D.C.,” she added.

Hobbs is not the only one halting deporation efforts. Governor Gavin Newsom of California claims to be “pro-immigration,” confusing true immigration with illegal entry. He signed a law to remove the word “alien” from legal documents, citing xenophobia. Newsom recently allocated $50 million to prevent federal separation efforts, including $25 million for “deportation defense” and $25 million to cover California’s legal battles with the federal government. Then he turned around and begged Washington for funding to help with California’s wildfires, as his state faces the worst deficit in the nation. Again, he is prioritizing illegal migrants over his own constituents and misallocating public funds to fuel his agenda.

Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey plans to rebel against deporation efforts. “The key here is that every tool in the toolbox has got to be used to protect our citizens, to protect our residents and protect our states, and certainly to hold the line on democracy and the rule of law,” she told reporters. Governor Tony Evers of Wisconsin stated that migrants are needed to maintain American agriculture, which is precisely what the Democrats said regarding the slaves during the Civil War. New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy declared that Democrats are prepared to “fight to the death” to keep illegal migrants in the US. Imagine if they worked this hard to fight for actual American citizens?

I am all for small government and permitting local governments to handle matters, but migration falls under national security. Biden’s open border policies created such a crisis that the federal government needed to step in to remove the millions of people who are living here illegally, largely living off US taxpayers. We cannot have certain states harboring fugitives, and yes, illegally entering and claiming residence in a foreign country is a crime, while other states work tirelessly to expel them.

The American people voted for a closed border and immigration control. The Democrats have made good on their promise to fight Trump at every turn, even if that entails ignoring democracy. They created the entire migration crisis by telling the world to come to America to seek shelter, and allowing anyone and everyone to enter without regard for American citizens or the American economy. Yet, they are portraying the Trump Administration as evil for attempting to undo the damage they created. The Democrats are eager for Trump to send out the National Guard to expel invaders. Deportation efforts have become the highlight of the “Trump is a dictator” narrative and the Democrats’ primary focus. The battle has only just begun.

A group of Polish physicians attempted to warn the public that the COVID-19 mRNA vaccinations were not “safe and effective.” Countless evidence and studies have proven that the vaccination did more harm than good. Yet, Poland has placed 45 doctors on trial for spreading anti-vaccine misinformation during the pandemic. If found guilty, these men and women will lose their medical licenses.

These 45 physicians are part of the Polish Association of Independent Physicians and Scientists (PSNLiN), a group that actively sought to warn the public about the harmful side effects of the mRNA vaccine. Their mission as stated on their website: “Freeing the medical profession and scientists from enslavement and restoring professional and scientific freedom. Promoting prevention and treatment according to the doctor’s and patient’s choice.” Why should the government force vaccines upon the population and have the ability to override trained medical professionals?

Dr. Peter Kotlár, physician and member of the Slovak Parliament, firmly believes that the “vaccine” was not a true vaccination but an attempt at genetic modification. As we know, the COVID-19 injections were only labeled as a vaccine when the CDC changed the definition.

"I will tell you one thing that please publish in your media. This is the result of the analysis of Slovak vaccines. On average, Moderna, mRNA content 10e9 - 10e10. DNA in Moderna 10e7 - 10e9. As for contamination after the production process. We talked about the amount of 10 to 2.3 at most. This is such a huge amount of genetic information that it can be safely, officially called gene therapy. This is not a vaccine. Now I am not talking about the pathological effect of protein S, which is a product of mRNA. This goes a different way. But the incorporation of DNA into human DNA will make you a genetically modified organism and can permanently produce protein S, which is toxic. This issue can be inherited and can cause other serious disorders and diseases." - Dr. Peter Kotlar.

"My main task is to uphold the constitution, and as a doctor I have the duty and right to protect the health of Slovak citizens. Yesterday I also informed the US Minister of Health and Human Services, Mr. Robert Kennedy Jr., by letter, who confirmed receipt of the information. In addition, the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Kash Patel, and Pamela Bondi, the US Attorney General, were also informed.

"So far, 34 batches from Pfizer and Moderna have been analyzed, which were stored in accordance with the proper cold chain and only those that were used for the Slovak population during the C19 epidemic. Today I will present the most important result of the analysis."

"The results of the analysis of all, I repeat, all tested batches showed that in each individual vial there is an extremely large amount of DNA, a vector encoding a cassette for the synthesis of the S protein, if not other proteins. Almost in the same amount as mRNA, DNA is also present there. In three cases, the DNA content is even higher than the mRNA. It can no longer even be considered an mRNA vaccine. This genetic code for the synthesis of the S protein, this information stored in DNA, is stable compared to mRNA, it can integrate with human nuclear DNA, and then such a human organism becomes - I am not afraid to say officially - a genetically modified organism," said Dr. Peter Kotlár

There are countless studies proving that the COVID vaccination had significant, life-altering, if not life-ending, side effects that were not presented to the public. Yet, the Polish government wants to dismiss every doctor who disobeyed their orders.

“They signed a letter which falsely presented both the results of research on vaccines and the entire strategy to combat the pandemic,” Paweł Wróblewski, president of the Lower Silesian Medical Chamber, which is overseeing the case, told broadcaster TVN. “The doctors are accused of promoting anti-health attitudes and publicly disseminating information that is inconsistent with current medical knowledge, thereby acting to the detriment of patients and the entire society,” he added.

The vaccine did not prevent infection or transmission. “The entire strategy” had nothing to do with public health. Poland has already stripped various physicians of their medical licenses for warning the public about the dangers of vaccinations. Although there are 45 physicians on trial currently, over 100 are facing charges. These men and women tried to protect the public at a time when the government was refusing to attempt that the vaccination was experimental and untested. They likely saved lives, but at what cost? It is an absurd case of cognitive dissonance that the world is continuing to push the false COVID-19 narrative, but governments refuse to admit what truly happened in 2020.

QUESTION #1: Okay, you forecast that Pope Francis would last 12 to 13 years into 2025 and that he would not be the last Pope under the prophecy of Saint Malachy, who was said to have forecasted that there would be only 112 more popes before the Last Judgment. Some said he was the 112th pope, but you said you saw a change in 2025. Could you elaborate on your comments since you also targeted May of 2025 for a shift? Also, didn’t the “Third Secret” of Fatima, revealed by the Vatican in 2000, describe a vision of a pope and clergy being martyred amid ruins? With Europe pushing for war against Russia, it certainly seems that these prophecies are at least possible.

FV

QUESTION #2: Just looking at current betting odds for the next Pope, and knowing that he must encompass that “Peter the Roman” moniker, the likeliest candidates there would be Pietro Parilon, Peter Erdo, or Peter Turkson. Does Socrates have an official forecast based upon all available historical data herein?

KW

QUESTION #3: In 2020, you wrote that there was a cycle in religion and that the subsequent major upheaval would be in 2033. Now that Pope Francis is dead, will the last pope complete that cycle by 2033?

DD

QUESTION #4:  You have been promising to report on what you said was the convergence of three religions, all of which point to a major upheaval by 2032. Will you publish that report one day?

Jay

REPLY: Yes, I wrote “The Decline & Fall of Religion” back on January 7th, 2020, with that target. From a cyclical analytical viewpoint, I have always found it curious that the last Roman Emperor in the West took the name Romulus Augustus, which was the name of the first king of Rome and the first emperor. So, from a cyclical viewpoint, saying that the last pope will be named “Peter the Roman” would be cyclically balanced – you end where you begin. Some have said, “St. Malachy’s prophecy is nonsense.” I cannot verify that one way or the other. I find it curious, as we do see significant political and religious changes post-2032.

There’s also the possibility that the prophecy was misinterpreted, looking at the list of popes since 1143. Some sources say that Benedict XVI was the 111th, so that Francis would be the 112th. However, the motto for 112 is Petrus Romanus, which makes no sense. So does that mean the prophecy considers Francis as the 111th, and the next pope will be the 112th? But that doesn’t fit with the previous count. Maybe the resignation of Benedict XVI complicates things because popes usually serve until death, but he chose to resign. So perhaps the numbering skips or something. Alternatively, maybe the prophecy counts all popes, including those who reigned for a very short time.

As far as the Fatima reported “Third Secret” is concerned, it does describe a vision of a pope and clergy being martyred amid ruins. The Vatican emphasized that the secret was symbolic, not a literal geopolitical prediction.

Some have identified Pope Francis as the 112th pope in the Prophecy of Saint Malachy, corresponding to the final motto “Petrus Romanus” (Peter the Roman). However, this association is highly debated and controversial. The prophecy lists 112 mottos, starting with Pope Celestine II, who was elected in 1143. Each subsequent pope is assigned a motto in sequence. Benedict XVI, Francis’s predecessor, is linked to the 111th motto, “Gloria Olivae” (The Glory of the Olive), often tied to the Benedictine Order. By this count, Francis would be the 112th.

However, the final motto, “Petrus Romanus” describes a pope named Peter (or symbolically tied to Peter) from Rome. Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio in Argentina, chose the name Francis and has no direct connection to the name Peter or Roman heritage. This discrepancy leads many to question the prophecy’s validity or suggest it may refer to a future pope.

Some scholars widely regard the prophecy as a 16th-century forgery, not authentically written by Saint Malachy. Its vague, post-hoc interpretations and lack of historical evidence before 1595 further undermine its credibility.

While Pope Francis is numerically the 112th pope in Malachy’s list, the expected attributes of “Petrus Romanus” do not align with him. The prophecy remains a topic of speculation rather than an accepted fact. It all hinges on the retirement of Pope Benedict XVI. Since he did not die in office, does that make Francis still the 111th pope, rather than the 112th?

I will try to get this report out next month. This review examines all the religious revolutions since ancient times and looks at the cyclical timing when religions change. Like everything else in life, there are cycles to religion from the rise of Christianity, Islam, and Judaism, with each also undergoing splits and revolutions, just as we see in politics. This is not a prophecy of religious dogma, but an analysis of when significant changes occur. In all honesty, they are also inspired by the business cycle and economic changes.

Henry VIII was broke and rejected the Catholic Church, declaring the Church of England instead. This allowed him to confiscate the property of the Catholic Church to fund his reign. Napoleon confiscated Church assets and even imprisoned the pope. Constantine faced the Christian army and declared he had seen a vision in the sky to paint a cross on the shields, so the opposing forces did not want to kill fellow Christians. He declared Christianity the state religion and confiscated all the assets of the Pagan Temples. Religion has been abused for centuries and has also been driven by economics. It was King Philip IV of France who seized the Vatican, moved it to France, installed a French pope, and stole its assets.  There are countless examples of upheavals in religion throughout the centuries.

The fear-mongering against Trump would lead one to believe that anyone could be deported. People genuinely fear traveling into US territory as our Commander in Chief could simply send anyone, on whim, to a detention center in El Salvador. Kilmar Abrego Garcia is the poster boy for these growing fears sensationalized by the left and mainstream media. What did he do? Garcia is a MS-13 gang member who was accused of murdering and raping an American woman, Rachel Morin, leaving her five children without a mother.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., declared he “won’t rest” until Kilmar Abrego Garcia is returned to the United States. Van Hollen took it upon himself to fly to El Salvador to meet Garcia, but was denied entry. He documented his trip, and the media is acting as if Van Hollen took it upon himself to look for the thousands of children who went missing at the southern border. “I’ve been in El Salvador all day fighting for the return of Mr. Abrego Garcia,” Van Hollen said in a caption to a video posted on X. “The Trump Admin can lie all they want, but the Court said they failed to show he was part of MS-13. This is about bringing home a man they ADMIT should’ve never been abducted. I won’t rest until then.”

The victim’s mother, Patty Morin, spoke at the White House. None of the mainstream media outlets, aside from Fox, would cover he speech. They do not want the public to know the true story because the narrative of Trump acting as a dictator and deporting people to El Salvador on whim is the story they want to present.

“To have a senator from Maryland who didn’t even acknowledge or barely acknowledge my daughter, and the brutal death that she endured, leaving her five children without a mother and now a grand baby without a grandmother, so that he can use my taxpayer money to fly to El Salvador to bring back someone that’s not even an American citizen,” she said. “Why does that person have more rights than I do for my daughter? For my grandchildren?” Patty Morin stated.

The Maryland Senator later returned to El Salvador, where the media filmed him enjoying margaritas with Garcia.

Then the courts pinned Rachel Morin’s murder on another illegal migrant from El Salvador by the name of Victor Antonio Martinez-Hernandez. Rachel, like many American women who have been raped and murdered by illegal migrants, was out for a run when she was attacked. Authorities say they suspect Rachel was not his first victim.

Garcia was innocent of the crime, but does he belong in the United States?

The US Supreme Court sided with a lower court judge who demanded that Garcia be returned to the United States for due process. Justice Sonia Sotomayor said she “would have declined to intervene in this litigation and denied the application in full, but continued, “Nevertheless, I agree with the Court’s order that the proper remedy is to provide Abrego Garcia with all the processes to which he would have been entitled had he not been unlawfully removed to El Salvador,” Sotomayor wrote. “That means the Government must comply with its obligation to provide Abrego Garcia with ‘due process of law,’ including notice and an opportunity to be heard, in any future proceedings.”

AG Pam Bondi said the matter rests with El Salvador. El Salvador President Nayib Bukele said the matter is “preposterous.” “We’re not very fond of releasing terrorists,” Bukele said.

The Democrats demand that Garcia, who illegally entered the United States in 2011, be released back into the general public to uphold the “Trump is Hitler” narrative. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., called Bukele’s statements “pure nonsense.” “The law is clear, due process was grossly violated,” Schumer said in a statement. “He should be returned to the U.S. immediately.”

Every day, more information is revealed about this man. Not only does he have ties to a transnational gang, but he is an official member with a ranking. A 2019 document from the US Homeland Security confirms he was indeed a gang member. “Abregio-Garcia was validated as a member of the Mara Salvatrucha (MS133) gang. Subject was identified as a member of the MS13, “Chequeo” from the Western Clique, a transnational criminal street gang.” This gang is affiliated with drug smuggling, human trafficking, murder, and every other heinous, despicable act. He was eligible for deportation in 2019, but fell through the cracks of the system.

His wife, who is on every channel crying for his return, filed a restraining order against him for domestic violence. She told authorities that her husband was “violent” and she feared for her safety. “In November 2020, he hit me with his work boot,” she wrote in the police report. “In August 2020, he hit me in the eye leaving a purple eye.” In another police report, she claimed her husband “punched, scratched, and ripped off her shirt.”

Hillary Clinton never fails to miss an opportunity to promote Trump arrangement syndrome. “Before the election, I warned that there is no safe haven under authoritarianism,” Clinton wrote. “If they can ship Kilmar Abrego Garcia to a foreign prison—accused of no crime, with no trial—they can do it to anyone.” Later adding, “Americans of conscience must stand against this now.” So much for supporting women’s rights.

The media is calling Garcia a “Maryland man” who was “wrongfully abducted” due to an “administrative error.” Articles state that Garcia fled his home country of El Salvador to escape gang violence and has become a casualty of Trump’s immigration crackdown. The truth of the matter is that Garcia was in the country illegally. He is a member of an extremely violent gang and has a history of violence against women.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt perhaps described the matter best: “Based on the sensationalism of many of the people in this room, you would think we deported a candidate for Father of the Year.”

The Democrats are hell-bent on keeping the borders open. The media is running with this story to fan the flames of fear and hatred for Trump. These politicians are only concerned about the safety of their political positions and not the safety of the American public.

Denmark, a NATO member nation, plans to deploy troops to Ukraine. “They are not going there to actively participate in the war,” Maj. Gen. Peter Boysen, Denmark’s commander in chief, told reporters. Rather, Denmark claims they are sending military personnel to “learn” about war.

You cannot send troops to an active warzone and expect them not to have an active role in the fighting. Russia immediately commented that any military personnel in Ukraine will be considered a “legitimate target.” Yet, Denmark wants to send unarmed troops to the battlefield, perhaps to create the false flag event needed to officially enter the war.

“We’re sending some teams down to see what experiences the Ukrainians have had — first-hand,” Boysen said, noting that the number of troops to be deployed has not been determined. Unconcerned with the safety of the troops, Boysen commented that Ukraine has sufficient air raid warning systems in place and shelters. “We can learn a lot from the combat experience they have gained in Ukraine,” Boysen said. “It is clear that we are relying on their experience to become better in combat.”

Russia’s ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, said that all facilities, including headquarters, training and education centers, as well as locations of military personnel and military equipment, both deep inside Ukrainian territory and on the front line, are a legitimate target.” Moscow will also strike any arms manufacturers operating in Ukraine, such as the German company Rheinmetall.

Over 70% of Ukraine’s fighting has been conducted using drone warfare, with 96% of the 1.5 million drones purchased in 2024 manufactured domestically. Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, believes that troops will better understand modern warfare witnessing it first-hand. Training will allegedly take place for a few weeks, but nothing is confirmed.

Denmark has already send over 8.5 billion euros to Ukraine since the war began through the Danish Ukraine Fund. Aside from Germany, no European nation has sent more to Ukraine than Denmark. Denmark established the “Danish Model,” whereby it purchases weapons and military supplies directly from Ukrainian manufacturers and circulates it back into the war. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said he is “open-minded” about deploying troops to Ukraine for “peacekeeping.”

These troops are not on a faux “peacekeeping” mission. Again, they will be unarmed sitting targets. Their mission is to observe and learn, and potentially, act as the first wave of NATO nation casualties to propel us into World War III.