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COMMENT: Marty, Happy Pi Day. I think it was inevitable that you would discover the relationship between Pi and the economy and the markets. I found it to be fate since you grew up at 314 South Lippincott Avenue.
JF
REPLY: Perhaps it was fate. That was an extraordinary coincidence. I never thought about that until it was pointed out to me years later.
COMMENT from Italy: Dear Mr Armstrong,
I just read your topic on volcanoes and cooling weather
Please note:
Etna is erupting, slowly
Stromboli had a small eruption last year with earthquake
On 13march on Campi Flegrei, “caldara” where Vesuvio is
Located, had an earthquake of magnitudo 4.1
Thus it seems all italian volcanoes have signs of “life”…:
Etna, Stromboli, Vesuvio, Vulcano
TD
Campi Flegrei: il terremoto del 13 marzo 2025 (Md 4.4) e il punto sul bradisismo
REPLY: Yes, there is an extraordinary number of volcanoes starting to come alive. Campi Flegrei is a serious supervolcano.
We will input all the recent activity and see what the computer comes up with.
QUESTION: Marty, Socrates is just amazing. You have been correlating agriculture and climate as volcanoes that produce major global cooling events. Well, just an observation: Many volcanos are becoming active or erupting simultaneously. Do you see a volcanic winter in the cards?
Sam
ANSWER: There is about a 309.6-year cycle to the big ones that result in volcanic winters. However, that begins with the 43BC eruption Okmok II in Alaska. There is a lack of data that prevents an accurate forecast of such events. However, if we look at just recent recorded events from the 1257 eruption of Samalas volcano on Lombok Island, Indonesia, there appear to be events of this nature on the half-cycle so about 154 years or so. This event of 1257 is now recognized as one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the Holocene epoch.
We have three main sources: Ice Core Data: Sulfate spikes in ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica date to around 1257–1258. Tree rings from 1258–1260 in regions like Europe and North America suggest prolonged cooling and reduced growing seasons. Historical Records from Medieval chronicles, both from Europe and Asia, describe extreme weather in 1258–1259, including unseasonable cold, heavy rains, crop failures, and famines. The English records recorded this as the “year of famine” with widespread starvation. Interestingly, this is why our database on Wheat began in 1259. Because of this crisis, people started to record prices.
This is why I have warned about simultaneous eruptions. There was also a smaller eruption around 1227 (traced to another tropical volcano) may have compounded cooling effects earlier in the century. Thus, this major event may have magnified the volcanic winter.
A giant volcano in Alaska is showing signs of an impending eruption. Significantly elevated levels of volcanic gas emissions were recently observed around Mount Spurr, which is located 75 miles from Anchorage and is home to nearly 300,000 people. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) said the emissions ‘confirm’ that new magma is flowing beneath the volcano, indicating a foreseeable eruption.
Small earthquakes were detected at Mount Rainier, Mount St. Helens, and Mount Hood during the past week. These are the Cascade Range. We did have the “Volcan de Fuego,” or Volcano of Fire, blowing a thick ash cloud, seen from Palin, Guatemala, on Monday, March 10, 2025. This is more of my concern. Numerous volcanoes can have an accumulative effect.
I can say that a low in 2025 points to higher prices ahead.
Americans are more likely to support Israel amid the Middle East conflict, but support is waning. A Gallup poll found that 46% of Americans feel sympathy toward Israel, marking the lowest support in Gallup’s 25 years of tracking.
Around 33% of Americans reportedly sympathize with Palestine, a six percentage point rise from 2024 and the highest reading on file. Democrats are far more likely (45% v 18%) to sympathize with Palestine over Israel compared to Republicans. This shift for the Democrats occurred in 2022, as prior to that there was bipartisan support for Israel.
Around 40% of Americans say they approve of Donald Trump’s handling of the war. Yet, most Americans want to see a two-state solution where Palestine establishes clear national lines. Around 55% of American adults support this measure and want to see an independent Palestine. Republicans are split on the issue, with 41% in favor and 49% in opposition.
Israel has received $12 billion in foreign military sales from the US since January 2025. A $3 billion arms deal was approved on the first of this month, and a $4 billion military assistance package was also approved on the same date. A $8 billion arms package was sent to Israel in February, with the bulk going toward bombs and guidance kits. Israel already received $3.3 billion annually from the Foreign Military Financing grant provided by the US.
America will continue funding Israel indefinitely. Turning Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East” will not likely go over well and we will see a massive humanitarian and refugee crisis as millions of Palestinians will be displaced. As the economy turns down, so will America’s overall support of Israel.
According to the Treasury Department, America’s deficit surpassed the $1 trillion mark this February. The deficit reached $307 billion for the month, marking a 2.5X increase on a monthly basis and 3.7% higher on an annual basis.
The deficit for the first five months of FY25 hit $1.15 trillion, a $318 billion increase (+38%) from the same period last year. America is paying $74 billion simply to finance this debt, with interest payments over the FY rising to $396 billion.
The deficit under the last three years of Biden-Harris grew from $1.38 trillion to $1.83 trillion as the public sector and government spending multiplied. Trump is attempting to make a dent in government spending through DOGE, but he is hitting America’s revenue with these tariffs. Both measures have only just begun and have not made a major impact on the economy yet.
Deficits no longer create economic growth; instead, they now consume it. Each additional dollar of debt generates diminishing returns, meaning the cost of servicing this debt will soon exceed the nation’s ability to function without radical restructuring.
Investors and global capital are beginning to take notice. Foreign demand for US debt has waned, with China and Japan significantly reducing their Treasury holdings. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is trapped. If it raises rates to combat inflation, it exacerbates the debt crisis. If it lowers rates, it risks unleashing another speculative bubble, but central banks tend to lower rates when they see a recession looming. There is no way out without structural reform.
Canada has agreed to fund woke programs abandoned by USAID. As the nation grapples with a barely functioning government and cost of living crisis, the Canadian government is funding what it believes to be a top priority – implementing LGBTQ programs in a Muslim nation.
Canada’s Minister of International Development, Ahmed Hussen, announced that the government would send C$272.1 million to Bangladesh and the Indo-Pacific region. “Canada continues to fiercely strengthen our long-lasting friendship with Bangladesh and the wider Indo-Pacific region with our long-standing people-to-people ties,” Hussen said in a statement. “By supporting vulnerable communities’ healthcare services, empowering women and addressing climate change, we are creating a brighter tomorrow for the global community.”
Bangladesh never asked for this funding. A primarily Muslim nation does not want “gender-responsive inclusive education” or “community resilience through locally-led inclusive adaptation.” Over 91% of the population there follows Islamic teachings that certainly do not align with the woke narrative that the liberals are forcing on the world. The money will likely be funneled through an NGO per usual and land in the pockets of pompous bureaucrats who believe they are saving the world.
Bangladesh does not even support same-sex marriage or civil partnerships. In fact, homosexuality is ILLEGAL in Bangladesh, and breaking the law could result in life imprisonment or death. These programs are placing people in extreme danger. There are no inclusive or safe spaces for members of the LGBTQ community in Bangladesh, and it is wrong to provide people with a false sense of security.
Leave it to the West to enter a foreign nation and force them to adopt a new moral code. The US will no longer fund these pointless woke programs through corrupt USAID, but Carney is willing to pick up the very expensive tab that comes with virtue signaling. Canadians should be outraged that their government is spending hundreds of millions of public funds on programs that benefit no one.
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