The NEOCONS Blinked – Bond Markets Warn of War

November 26, 2024

Russia new missile

The Western Press is too ignorant to write a story with old-fashioned investigative journalism since they just regurgitate what the Neocons put out, pick up the rug, and look at the silence of Biden in both comment and action. Putin hit Dnipro with the equivalent of a nuclear weapon that pulverizes the target yet does not leave a fireball or radiation. This missile can take out every European facility in a matter of minutes, and it cannot be stopped.

Besides the launch of the ‘Oreshnik’ Missile, Russia has Rained down 800 KAB Bombs and 460 Drones on Ukraine Amid Long-Range Strikes. What is absent is that Zelensky has not filed another long-range US missile until now, and the Neocons said to go ahead. Sources are saying that US Intelligence was taken totally by surprise. They all talk about how weak Russia is and how Ukraine is destroying its military. We are approaching 1.3 million Ukrainians dead since Boris Johnson killed the peace deal because the NEOCONs want to invade Russia and keep spewing out to the media, using their Institute for the Study of War, the constant image that Russia can be conquered in just a few weeks if not days.

GCNYNF W Tech 11 25 24

 

The NEOCONs have hesitated, but only for a moment. This is the first time that they have blinked. Zelensky has not fired any more long-range missiles as they access the crisis until today. Nevertheless,  what is being bantered around is that Putin does not have a lot of these missiles. It was experimental. So, no worries. We monitor the timing arrays for many key marks, from currencies and metals to stocks and bonds. The future is always written silently in the price action. Next week, we will see a significant turning point in gold, often a precursor to war.

The NEOCON propaganda machine, the Institute for the Study of War (Victoria Nuland’s Sister-in-law), has come out and said that they have identified about 200 targets within the ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles range. They are pitching that Ukraine can attack command centers and mobile targets, and this MAY hinder Russian military operations.

 

 

Nobody cares about Ukraine or how many Ukrainians died; they do not even care if Ukraine survives when this is over. This has been both more than an exercise to kill as many Russians as possible. As Lydsey Grachm said, killing Russians was the best money he spent.

 

 

This is an operation to strip mine natural resources from Ukraine and nothing more. The Russian NEOCONs have been screaming that this is a war with the USA and NATO – not Ukraine. The long-range missiles proved that point, especially when Biden did not offer any explanation for his change in policy. We have to wonder if the NEOCONs have taken this on their own with a senile president who does not realize he will be remembered for this single action.

 

US_10_Year_T_Note M Chart 11 25 24

 

I have warned that rates rise during a war – they do not decline. When the Federal Reserve cut its federal funds target rate by half a percentage point, the goal was to make it cheaper to borrow money across the economy and thereby stimulate growth. We were headed into a recession. However, look at this chart. The unexpected unfolded. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note went UP – not down. The marketplace sets that long-term interest rate. The Fed can ONLY set the short-term rate – not the long-term. That is what quantitative easing was all about buying back long-term bonds to try to bring those rates down. The yield on the 10-year has actually gone up since the Fed announced its cut. This was our first warning of a cycle inversion and the prospect of war before January 20th.

Roll the Dice

This movement in the bonds is significant because the yield on the 10-year is not just the interest rate the government pays on its debt. It’s also the benchmark for many other interest rates, including mortgages, auto loans, and corporate borrowing. So when the 10-year rate increases, it is not cheaper to borrow money across the economy and thereby stimulate growth. The long-term rates have risen with the rate cuts by the Fed, and December is a turning point, with January being a Panic Cycle. The Neocons are thinking about rolling the dice, betting that Putin does not have enough of these missiles to prevent the West from hailing down nuclear Armageddon on Russia. They are desperate to create World War III before Trump takes office.

We will issue an important report on this unprecedented cycle inversion in the bond market, along with the 2024 Year-End Report covering the yearly model as we start 2025.

Both of these reports are included for those who attended the WEC and the Virtual Plus Access. We will email you when they are available individually for your free download in your portal.

What the Bonds Tell Us 2020 Year End Report

 

 

Market Talk – November 25, 2024

November 25, 2024

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
• NIKKEI 225 increased 496.29 points or 1.30% to 38,780.14
• Shanghai decreased 3.43 points or -0.11% to 3,263.76
• Hang Seng decreased 78.98 points or -0.41% to 19,150.99
• ASX 200 increased 23.80 points or 0.28% to 8,417.60
• SENSEX increased 1,054.43 points or 1.33% to 80,171.54
• Nifty50 increased 314.65 points or 1.32% to 24,221.90
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD increased 0.00017 or 0.03% to 0.65017
• NZDUSD increased 0.00155 or 0.27% to 0.58473
• USDJPY decreased 0.337 or -0.22% to 154.373
• USDCNY decreased 0.01211 or -0.17% to 7.24618
The above data was collected around 11:05 EST.
Precious Metals:
•  Gold decreased 82.82 USD/t oz. or -3.05% to 2,633.03
•  Silver decreased 1.16 USD/t. oz. or -3.70% to 30.182
The above data was collected around 11:10 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a green day today:
•  CAC 40 increased 2.46 points or 0.03% to 7,257.47
•  FTSE 100 increased 29.60 points or 0.36% to 8,291.68
•  DAX 30 increased 82.61 points or 0.43% to 19,405.20
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD increased 0.00715 or 0.69% to 1.04887
• GBPUSD increased 0.00247 or 0.20% to 1.25572
• USDCHF decreased 0.00654 or -0.73% to 0.88745
The above data was collected around 11:14 EST.

US/AMERICAS:

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 440.06 points or 0.99% to 44,736.57
  • S&P 500 advanced 18.03 points or 0.3% to 5,987.37
  • Nasdaq advanced 51.18 points or 0.27% to 19,054.83
  • Russell 2000 advanced 35.36 points or 1.47% to 2,442.03

 

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 33.93 points or -0.13% to 25,410.35
  • TSX 60 declined 2.08 points or -0.14% to 1,522.66

 

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced 37.81 points or 0.03% to 129,163.32
ENERGY:
The oil markets had a mixed day today:
•  Crude Oil decreased 2.257 USD/BBL or -3.17% to 68.983
•  Brent decreased 2.181 USD/BBL or -2.90% to 72.989
•  Natural gas increased 0.3201 USD/MMBtu or 10.23% to 3.4491
•  Gasoline decreased 0.067 USD/GAL or -3.25% to 1.9923
•  Heating oil decreased 0.059 USD/GAL or -2.59% to 2.2148
The above data was collected around 11:15 EST.
•  Top commodity gainers: Natural Gas (10.23%), Palm Oil (2.11%), Zinc (1.48%) and Nickel (2.07%)
•  Top commodity losers: Crude Oil (-3.17%), Gasoline (-3.25%), Silver (-3.70%) and Gold (-3.05%)
The above data was collected around 11:20 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 1.0740% (-0.58bp), US 2’s 4.32% (-0.068%), US 10’s 4.2960% (-11.5bps); US 30’s 4.48% (-0.109%), Bunds 2.2040% (-4.8bp), France 3.018% (-2.8bp), Italy 3.4590% (-4.45bp), Turkey 27.65% (+0bp), Greece 3.058% (-5.2bp), Portugal 2.679% (-4.4bp); Spain 2.930% (-4.3bp) and UK Gilts 4.3490% (-4.29bp)
The above data was collected around 11:23 EST.

Bitcoin the International Commodity

November 25, 2024

Bitcoin FX 11 24 24

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I am a newcomer. I watched your WEC virtually. It was very eye-opening. I also want to thank you for Socrates and for covering Bitcoin. Your service is the only thing out there that isn’t biased, and you are not trying to sell me some crypto. Also, thank you for explaining that nothing can be fixed and that the sales pitch behind Bitcoin was just false. You have explained it is an asset class and approach it like anything else. It’s just a trade. I look at it in different currencies, as you said. It has opened my mind to a dynamic world, as you put it at the WEC.

Once again, thank you.

Paul

Capital Flow Map 11 24 24

REPLY: With the political chaos surrounding us and the push for war, these are the times that cause capital to move. Look at our map that tracks the capital flows every day. Both the Chinese and Russians are pulling back the capital from the West. The capital is fleeing the Baltics right now, but Brazil is also experiencing political chaos there. When you look at Bitcoin in various currencies, you can see that it is being used as a vehicle to get capital out of Europe right now.

Cleveland

Graver Cleveland was the previous president who, like Trump, was elected to non-consecutive terms. Like Donald Trump, he also stood against his own party. He expressed this best during the Panic of 1893. Capital can flee and move offshore. It is the middle class that cannot hoard their labor or move it offshore without leaving their country.

Bitcoin is a trading vehicle, and it may not be suited for a reserve currency since the money supply MUST increase with population and the expansion of the economy, or else you create deflation. Nevertheless, it has become an international digital means of moving money, and this is happening right now, so it is important to look at anything from a global perspective. Bitcoin has become like gold, which is the same product that is traded internationally. That makes it an interesting, distinct international class.

We have more subscribers to Bitcoin than probably everyone else combined because it is a separate international class like gold.

 

DEA Suspended from Robbing Airline Passengers

November 25, 2024

The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) has been criminalizing airline passengers since the Patriot Act gave them the permission to treat everyone as a suspected terrorist. The Justice Department has finally suspended the DEA from most passenger searches after an investigation revealed that the DEA was perhaps violating the Constitution with illegal and warrantless searches.

A Justice Department Office of Inspector General (OIG) memorandum outlined a DECADE worth of “significant concerns” about how DEA agents have been fabricating the criteria necessary to search passengers. In fact, the OIG found that one airline employee was paid tens of thousands of dollars as a kickback for seizing cash from unsuspecting passengers on behalf of the DEA.

The majority of searches and seizures at airports never find an actual crime. That does not prevent DEA agents from coercing passengers into forfeiting their assets. There are countless stories of innocent passengers losing everything for carrying an amount greater than $5,000 on board.

The DEA attempted to steal the life savings of a retired railroad engineer who had $82,373 in cash. The agency was forced to return he funds when the case went public. In another instance, a woman had over $40,000 confiscated without valid reason. Yet again, the DEA had to return the money when the story hit the news. This happens extremely frequently, but it is rare for the agency to return funds once they have been confiscated.

According to the Justice Department Office of Inspector General, the DEA seized $4 billion in cash from potential drug smugglers from 2007 to 2017, but only $3.2 billion was found to be connected to criminal activity. The report concluded: “”When seizure and administrative forfeitures do not ultimately advance an investigation or prosecution, law enforcement creates the appearance, and risks the reality, that it is more interested in seizing and forfeiting cash than advancing an investigation or prosecution.”

What is considered suspicious activity? “When you buy a last-minute ticket, we get alerts,” one DEA officer explained. “We come out, and we talk to those people, which I’ve tried to do to you, but you wouldn’t allow me to do it.” Purchasing a flight with an immediate return could set off the alarm, as could purchasing a ticket within 24 hours of travel. The DEA considers it suspicious if you travel without checked luggage.

Once, I flew back to the States from Europe during the July Fourth holiday. My ticket was originally booked for JFK in New York. I then remembered the traffic would be horrific so I switched to Philadelphia. When I landed, I was met by two IRS agents. Apparently, there was sting they set up at JFK looking for Americans coming home for holidays who do not pay taxes here. I said, “You can check. I pay my taxes here and do not live overseas.” That was not good enough. They thought I was tipped off to their sting in NYC, so they sent two agents to intercept me in Philadelphia simply because I switched planes.

How do we permit government agencies to seize assets on the premise of suspicion? Then, we allow these agencies to split the proceeds they illegally seized even if no crime was committed. Does the Constitution not apply at the airport?

Orban Says Europe Cannot Defeat Russia Without America

November 25, 2024

viktor orban

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban believes “peace will be within reach” once Donald Trump in inaugurated in January, adding that the Ukraine-Russia war has “entered its most dangerous phase.” In an admittance likely to anger Brussels once more, Orban said that Europe has no chance of defeating Russia without the help of the United States.

Orban is concerned about Hungarians living in Transcarpathia, Russia, and has long called for a peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia. You may recall that Orban personally met with Vladamir Putin months ago, placing him at odds with Brussels indefinitely as the EU’s position is to continue the war by any means necessary.

“If America backs out from behind Ukraine, then Europe is not in a strong enough military position to support Ukraine with even the slightest chance of success,” Orban admitted. He stated that the Hungarian defense council examined scenarios on what would happen if America pulled out of the war but none of them made sense.

Orban is worried about what Joe Biden may say in the months leading up to Trump’s inauguration, adding that every sentence must be carefully thought out over the next two months and “common sense must prevail, otherwise there will be trouble. Contrary, he warned that leaders must listen to what Putin is saying as in Russia “if the president says something, it is not just babble.”

“The war must end in order for us to achieve our goals, because each and every one of the problems of the Hungarian economy stems from the war,” the prime minister said. It all comes down to finances. This war does not benefit the people of Europe in any shape or form. For now, Orban is calling upon Biden not to escalate any “war-approving steps.”

Orban also noted that he will be inviting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Hungary and criticized the ICC for declaring him a war criminal. This man does not consult with Brussels before arranging critical meetings. He has not adopted the centralized European mentality that Brussels expects member states to share. The unelected officials controlling the EU seemingly cannot control Orban or others who are increasingly defying demands.

There is Still Home Resistance is NOT Futile!

November 25, 2024

Stamer Reelection

With US and UK missiles now being used against targets in Russia and Russia sending ICBMs against Ukraine, we are teetering on WW3. It is the closest we have been since the 1962 and 1973 crises. I seriously question whi sanctioned these missiles since Biden did not publicly come out and make the announcement for something this major. Teddy Altas famously says that “what someone does at the end is what they planned to do all along.”

Biden in Military Helmet

What I would add to that is that you will always be remembered for your last deed—not your first. Biden’s entire life will be remembered for this single decision, just as George Bush Jr. will be remembered for Iraq.

The good news is that the British Parliament is at least going to debate calling for an election. Russia just flew drones over their three nuclear facilities, and they had no idea they were coming. This has been set in motion by Starmer’s support for a lame-duck president’s efforts to start World War III or at least by the NEOCONs in his name.

The Election 2024 – Will there Be One in 2028?

November 25, 2024

Election 2024 r

This is a special report on the political models forecasting Trump’s victory against all the polls, looking at the future, including the forecasts for the 2028 election, if there is even one. This report also dives into the fact that political parties often split and even vanish into the history books like the Federalists. Thomas Jefferson’s Democratic-Republican Party split into the Democrats vs. Republicans. Then, there was a takeover of parties like FDR during the 1930s, as Trump did in the Republican Party. There is always resistance, and today, Trump faces the RINOs in addition to the Democrats.

This report is unique and provides insight into the political chaos ahead.

Special Report … $9.95

The Coming Capital Controls

November 24, 2024

Capital_Controls Index 2024

With the Neocons desperate to create war before Trump takes office to trap him into a crisis he cannot escape, we must be mindful that they will impose capital controls on everything. This is just what these people do to prevent capital flows. This special report is now available for everyone.

The Coming Capital Controls – $300

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