A lot of people are fixed on what money is and presume somehow that a return to precious metals will solve the problem. Precious metals are for personal use. They have never prevented any society from systemic economic collapse. Do not confuse hoarding gold to preserve wealth with a gold standard. We had one with Bretton Woods. Governments printed and never adjusted the conversion ratio because they had to admit what they had done. The problem is not WHAT is money, the problem is regardless what money might be, politicians always spend more than what they have. The only practical solution is to eliminate the ability to borrow.

Debt has destroyed every empire, state, and city since the dawn of time. Hammurabi’s Legal Code created legal limits on interest, so borrowing was a problem from the dawn of civilization. The only solution to be realistic must address the outstanding debt while eliminating the capacity to borrow. Changing to a gold standard means the outstanding debt would be due then in gold. The bankers will love that. If we default, all pension funds will go to waste, and we will be looking at massive civil unrest.

We have to be practical. If we are going to follow dogma, you better dig a hole and don’t come out until the mushroom cloud subsides. This is real shit we are talking about! This is not an idealized theory. Every act will have an equal and opposite reaction.

I have stated many times that unemployment hit 25% during the Great Depression because of the Dust Bowl, and 40% of the civil workforce was employed in agriculture. We are at a similar risk today, but the 40% is in government, producing nothing toward national wealth, and are public servants because we pay them to produce nothing.

It is the implosion of state and local government, their inability to print into oblivion, that is the check against hyperinflation as they raise taxes and try desperately to hold on to their chiefdoms. Gold is for personal survival. Switching to gold does not address the debt, growing employment in government, the pensions, and our long-term survival.

So gold may help you survive personally as the economy switches to underground, but it will not address the decades of abuse suffered under Marxism. The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn (just being a little pregnant with Marxism).

Schoolchildren in Poland are preparing for potential invasion with mandates for firearm lessons. Minister of Education and Science Przemyslaw Czarnek signed off on the new requirement and is considering expanding studies to include preparation for rescue operations and cyber attacks.

Children in primary schools will learn weapons safety and theoretical principles. Secondary school children, girls and boys, will learn how to properly shoot a firearm. Lessons may begin by using ball guns, air guns, or virtual laser shooting ranges before introducing live ammunition.

Poland had similar courses in place for previous generations, and given the nation’s history, it is understandable why they’d want to arm all civilians from a young age. Other Baltic states like Lithuania are considering implementing similar measures while places like Latvia already have this curriculum in place. Defensive training or przysposobienie obronne became less commonplace after the USSR was dissolved. Former generations were trained on the proper use of gas masks and the threats of the day.

Let us not forget that citizens were extremely restricted from owning firearms in Poland prior to the last invasion. The 1932 Act on Guns, Munitions and Explosive Materials made it extremely difficult for citizens to obtain a license, which they would need to acquire through a starosta or country governor. The public was nowhere near prepared for the Nazi invasion, but on September 12, 1939, the Germany army issued a ordinance requiring all Poles to surrender all firearms within 24 hours. Failure to comply resulted in execution without trial.

One would think that the government would permit the people to protect themselves after the Nazi occupation. Instead, Minister of Public Security Stanisław Radkiewicz invalidated all gun licenses on July 15, 1945. Strict regulations remained in place until 1961 when the government eagerly created a Citizens’ Militia and became a bit more lenient with permits. Still, regulations remain in place and Poland has a low rate of civilian gun ownership. There are only 2.5 firearms per 100 people in Poland, and less than 0.8% have a valid firearm permit. Harsh regulations on firearms result in a weakened populace who is unable to protect themselves against governments, whether foreign or their own.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Like so many others, I cannot express my gratitude for creating Socrates. You provide forecasting for the entire world. In Brazil, Socrates has been a light in the middle of darkness. Our central bank has had to intervene four times, desperately trying to prevent the collapse of our currency, as we see nothing but soaring budget deficits. We are witnessing the wholesale spread across assets. Our government dollar bonds are declining despite being denominated in the US dollar. Our hopeless president, who the West cheered, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, proposed new income tax breaks alongside a plan to cut over $11 billion in spending last month. Lula has no idea about the economy.

Could you please comment on Brazil as we go, so does South America?

Enzo

ANSWER: It is so important to look at the entire world. We are all connected. However, looking at the array for South America it does not suggest that everyone will follow Brazil. Nevertheless, the US dollar should continue its advance into 2025. I would be concerned about the May/June time period next year. We are looking at the collapse of socialism. The election of Lula da Silva was an act of economic suicide for Brazil. Silva was elected in 2022 to be the president of Brazil. That was a stunning comeback following a very tight run-off race that was not without controversy. His victory heralded a political about-face for Latin America’s largest country. You can see the economic consequences ever since the US dollar reversed direction and was projecting going into 2025 for a major high. Bolsonaro is ahead of da Silva in the polls for the next 2026 election. It certainly appears that the US dollar will rally into 2025, impacting your 2026 election.

A year-end closing above 5.98, which the market is trading above currently, should confirm a new high for the dollar into 2025. Looking into next year, the overhead resistance will stand at 6.31, 6.79, and 7.27. Brazil is a founding member of the BRICS. The collapse of their currency flies in the face of propaganda about how the BRICS will kill the dollar. They lack the economy and certainly the financial capability. As you mentioned, they had to issue debt in dollars to raise money. As the dollar rallies, those emerging markets that issued dollar-denominated debt are being pushed closer and closer to default in 2025.

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Our models do not indicate that food inflation will ease in 2025. In fact, I have repeatedly warned that people may want to stockpile food for the next two years as there will be weather events and supply chain shortages. Our model warns that we may see another severe drought, probably between 2025 to 2027, in both the US and Canada. The drought conditions are already beginning, and this is in line with our model, which warns it will expand into the 2025-2027 period.

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon announced last week that he expects persistent high prices at the grocery store. “I don’t know what the whole year is going to look like. I hope and I think it could be better as these commodities adjust — some of them,” he said per GroceryDrive. According to McMillon, he was “disappointed” at where food inflation was currently and cited that eggs and dairy were the main problems.

Food prices shot up during the pandemic and never fully recovered. Then the was in Ukraine hurt Europe’s food supply in a major way. In America, the Food Industry Association conducted a study that revealed food inflation in America rose 25% since the pandemic, and recently rose 1.1% on a monthly basis in November.

We then have those adhering to the climate change agenda reducing farmland and available cattle. They have repeatedly stated that humans simply consume too much meat, and our diets must change to reduce our carbon footprint.

Tariffs are inflationary and always hurt the consumer and have not helped in recent years. Additional tariffs will disrupt the supply chain and cause prices to rise. Obviously this is not limited to Walmart, the grocer who perhaps sells the cheapest goods in mass. Central banks are cheering that inflation has tamed but utterly ignore the persistently high cost of basic necessities like food.

Jan. 6 Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) recently stated that he would accept a preemptive pardon from Joe Biden if it were offered to him. Thompson has not been accused of a crime – yet. So, what is he hiding?

Thompson believes his committee did a “wonderful job” investigation January 6. Innocent people do not need pardons. Clearly, Thompson knows something that the public does not. “The president…….it’s his prerogative,” Thompson said, according to The Hill. “If he offers it, to me or other members of the committee, I think it, I would accept it, but it’s his choice.”

Burdick v. United States, 236 U.S. 79 (1915) declared that accepting a pardon is an admission of guilt. “There are substantial differences between legislative immunity and a pardon; the latter carries an imputation of guilt and acceptance of a confession of it, while the former is noncommittal, and tantamount to silence of the witness,” legislation declares. “There is a distinction between amnesty and pardon; the former overlooks the offense, and is usually addressed to crimes against the sovereignty of the state and political offenses, the latter remits punishment and condones infractions of the peace of the state.”

The deep state will say that the committee should be preemptively pardoned in case Donald Trump prosecutes his political enemies as the left has done relentlessly over the past four years. Pardoning Bennie Thompson would also likely result in a pardon for Liz Cheney as both have allegedly destroyed evidence surrounding the J6 case.

“Cheney did something that’s inexcusable, along with Thompson and the people on the un-select committee of political thugs and, you know, creeps,” Trump said in an interview. “They deleted and destroyed all evidence. And Cheney was behind it. And so was Bennie Thompson and everybody on that committee. For what they did, honestly, they should go to jail.”

Cheney and Thompson refused to hand over witness interviews and depositions regarding the care. She would not allow the video recordings of witness interviews see the light of day. “The Subcommittee recovered over one hundred deleted or password-protected files, including some files that were deleted days before Republicans took the majority. They also hid multiple transcribed interviews of witnesses who had firsthand knowledge of Trump‘s actions on January 6,” a report into the botched investigation revealed.

Cheney and Thompson maintain their innocence. Cheney also maintains that Trump attempted to overthrow the 2020 US Presidential Election to seize power like a crazed dictator. “He mobilized an angry mob and sent them to the United States Capitol, where they attacked police officers, invaded the building and halted the official counting of electoral votes. Trump watched on television as police officers were brutally beaten and the Capitol was assaulted, refusing for hours to tell the mob to leave,” Cheney maintains.

Deleting and destroying evidence is a crime. If Joe Biden pardons these individuals, then he is merely covering up a deeper injustice and perversion of the justice system under his watch. Biden has nothing to lose at this point as he is absolutely detested by everyone, including his own party. The two-tiered justice system in America screws over everyone who is not at the top.

Former Luzerne County, Pennsylvania judge Michael Conahan made his fortune by accepting bribes to imprison America’s youth. Conahan and fellow judge Mark Ciavarella Jr. ruined families to help fill the cells of for-profit juvenile detention facilities. Over 2,500 juveniles were sold off by these judges for $2.8 million. Conahan was sentenced to 17.5 years, a mere slap on the wrist compared to his offense. But Joe Biden believes this man should be free and granted him clemency.

These corrupt PA judges sent children to prison for minor, non-violent offenses. For many of these juveniles, they had never seen a courtroom before the day they were unlucky enough to appear before Conahan of Ciavarella. Now, Conahan had already been released on home confinement after citing he was in “grave danger” of catching COVID. “These commutation recipients, who were placed on home confinement during the COVID pandemic, have successfully reintegrated into their families and communities and have shown that they deserve a second chance,” Joe Biden stated.

@trendy_viewz

#Mother who lost her son in the “Kids-for-Cash” scheme speaks out after President #Biden pardoned one of the men she accuses of k*lling her child. Fonzo is famous for berating a judge for accepting kickbacks to send children to for-profit detention facilities. Biden pardoned Judge #MichaelConahan this week who accepted $2.1 million in kickbacks from detention facilities

♬ original sound – Trendy_viewz Nuke

Why should this dishonorable judge receive clemency when he deliberately gave children the longest sentences possible in exchange for cash? Some of his victims were under 13. Those who were released are suffering permanent psychological damage, and many were unable to finish high school.

One young man committed suicide while behind bars while serving a sentence for a minor drug charge, a charge that someone like Hunter Biden would never face. His mother, Sandy Fonzo, told reporters she was “shocked” and “hurt” by the president’s disgusting actions. “Conahan‘s actions destroyed families, including mine, and my son‘s death is a tragic reminder of the consequences of his abuse of power,” Fonzo told the Citizens’ Voice, a local outlet. “This pardon feels like an injustice for all of us who still suffer. Right now I am processing and doing the best I can to cope with the pain that this has brought back.”

There are clearly two tiers of justice in this country. Biden’s actions are sparking bipartisan outrage as NO ONE believes this judge should receive a “second chance” when he denied THOUSANDS of kids the opportunity to have one. Joe Biden may very well leave office as one of the LEAST popular presidents in modern history.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I am new to your blog. My friends here have been on my case to listen to you. Our government has fallen, and I have observed one thing. Your forecasts are correct because nobody here will ever make a bold forecast, and they all seem to preach the same scenario. You have been accurate on Germany against the herd of analysts here. One by one, European nations are falling, and I can now see your 2032 and the collapse of governments unfolding before our eyes. What do you see in 2025 for Germany? You have a solution for the United States. Could you save Europe from itself?

Thank you

DT

ANSWER: Because I am not an academic, what I speak comes from experience and direct observation. The only economic theories that have survived are exclusively from those who have been traders – not academics. John Law traded on the Amsterdam exchange and gave birth to Supply and Demand. He articulated his famous water vs diamond analogy, which stated that water was vital to society. Still, water had little value compared to a diamond that had no true utility value yet was worth more than water. Even David Ricardo was involved in trading and saw the implications of international capital flows. He expressed that a nation should focus on its comparative advantage – something Trump must understand.

Sir Thomas Gresham also traded on the same Amsterdam exchange and saw that debasement drove out the older coinage from the money supply. Gresham’s Law became that bad money drove good out of circulation. We saw this even during the 3rd century AD when people hoarded the old silver coins and spent the debased. Even Albert Einstein, I was told, got his idea of general relativity from moving up and down in an elevator. Albert’s special theory of relativity appeared to be incompatible with the gravitational force as described by Newton’s law of gravity.

Most analysts espouse the same old nonsense and project the future based on what the central bank will or will not do. These analysts are not real, for all they purport is the same Keynesian theories they were taught in school. Sorry – that was an academic theory inspired by Marx and no longer works. Even Paul Volcker, former Fed Chairman, delivered his speech – the Rediscovery of the Business Cycle, in which he stated that the “new economics” ultimately failed. Any analyst who points to the Fed has never read the memos. Here, we have the thinking process before Keynes. The Fed raised rates in May 1928 and continued into the 1929 high with no effect.

Here is a chart of call money rates from the NYSE. Just look closely. We see that 1929 was the biggest stock market rally but the lowest level of interest rates, all because of the capital inflows. The Panic of 1899 saw rates rise to virtually 200% because of the capital outflows. There is no such theory of stock market up interest rates down that can be verified whatsoever.

The market functions like a pendulum. It is its own weight that pulls it back in the opposite direction, and so forth. When everyone is bullish, and you scare the herd, they all try to sell, and then what you get is panic and NO BID. ONLY a trader understands this – never an academic with no experience. It’s like a guy trying to write a book on how it feels to give birth – IMPOSSIBLE! This is why the MAJORITY must always be wrong. A good trader looks at the bullish, bearish consensus.

You are correct. Europe is imploding one nation at a time. As I have said many times, the creation of the euro was a compromise, and it could never rival the dollar, forcing institutional investors to still pick and choose between member states lacking a national debt market. Mr Scholz is a disaster. He lost a vote of confidence by 394 to 207, with 116 members of the Bundestag abstaining. Scholz’s last-ditch attempt to retain power with promises of massive spending fell flat on its face. This will send Germany to an election in February, precisely when our computer has been projecting a Panic Cycle in advance. Leaders from several major parties have since agreed to move up the parliamentary election to February 23, seven months ahead of schedule.

I would gladly fly to Brussels to address all members at once. But you must understand the computer forecasts that my best efforts will not succeed. Each member retained its debt. If Germany listened, it would pressure others to follow or be left behind. But politicians have been brainwashed by the NEOCONs and NATO and are preparing for a third World War, which the computer forecasts that they will lose. This will be the demise of the West. I suppose historically, we all have our minutes of fame.

In 800AD, Pope Leo III crowned Charlemagne (768-814AD) Holy Roman Emperor. Today, Charlemagne is referred to by some as the father of Europe. From that date, the EU is not likely to exist after 2029. Europe is heading in the wrong direction, and NATO is pushing for World War III, and there is not a single government even willing to negotiate. That makes it very hard. In all reality, I suspect they would only listen to me in 2029 and beyond.