I have met Anna Paulina Luna (APL) and have been impressed by her policies and tenacity. Anna is receiving an unprecedented amount of hate for her conservative views. Her campaign manager was recently assaulted, and I fear that we can expect more violence against conservatives in the weeks to come if Trump secures a victory.

People assume all of Florida is bright red, but that is simply not true. My county, in particular, is a mix, potentially leaning blue. There is a good mix of Trump and Harris flags and an uptick of pro-Harris-Walz protests, although there was a poor turnout when Harris attempted to campaign here.

Anna Paulina Luna has become a target for the violent left. A few weeks ago, far-left supporters doxed Anna and revealed her home address. The St. Petersburg Police Department confirmed that Luna’s office received death threats a few months ago. ““My office has received a very serious shooting threat,” she said. “This division and hate campaign against Republicans is going to get someone killed. I will not be threatened, intimidated, or bow down to those using violence as a means to push their agenda. We will win,” Luna wrote.

Luna, an Air Force veteran, has accused the radical left’s campaign of hate for the increase in violent threats. Most recently, her campaign manager was physically assaulted by one of her political rival’s supporters.

“A male Whitney Fox supporter shook hands with her father at the Clearwater early polling location before getting physical with my female campaign manager and her father,” said Rep. Anna Paulina Luna.

Instead of offering protection or asking their radicalized supporters to back down, the demonization of Luna has continued. Chairwoman Suzan DelBene has attacked Luna’s heritage, accusing her of lying about her father’s Jewish heritage and accusing her grandfather of fighting for the Nazis.

We are witnessing neighbors turn against one another. Luna’s own neighbor posted her personal information on Facebook with the message: “I know where she lives if anyone is interested in sending her a love letter or … something. She dwells right around the corner.”

I worry that these threats will turn into actual acts of violence. If Trump secures a victory, the left will not accept defeat. They have been told that his supporters are “deplorable,” “Nazis,” and “garbage” who want to ruin what is left of this great nation.

For the one-issue voters honing in on abortion – do you know that the president does not have the power to overturn the Supreme Court ruling? Abortion is now in the hands of individual states. Kamala Harris has promised to codify Roe v Wade into the US Constitution, but it’s not possible at this time.

Harris would need the full support of both chambers of Congress. She knows that she could never secure enough votes which is why she would like to eliminate the Senate filibuster to allow legislation to pass with a majority of 51 votes instead of 60. There are people on both sides who do not agree with ending the filibuster for various reasons.

Harris would need to end the Hyde Amendment that restricts Medicaid coverage for abortions. Low-income individuals are more prone to seek out abortion services. She would likely need Congress to approve funding for abortion services, as the federal government already funds Planned Parenthood.

Restricting state-level bans would also need to happen. The Bible Belt will ensure that their states have separate legislation in their state Constitutions that Harris would need to override.

Then, whatever is passed is simply not enough. For example, on our local ballot in Florida, they would like minors to have access to abortions without parental authorization. Children are unable to undergo medical procedures without parental authorization, but the far-left believes they have the ability to choose whether it’s right to terminate a pregnancy or switch their gender. Roe technically applies to 22 to 24 weeks of pregnancy, but individual journalists have shown that countless agencies have no problem performing abortions well into the third trimester.

Kamala Harris pledges to implement unrestricted abortion within her first 100 days of office. There is absolutely no way she could accomplish all of the above within a few months. It is simply not possible to mobilize public support for such a polarizing measure.

We will temporarily pause Market Talk until mid-November as our staff focuses on the World Economic Conference.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Thank you for being so honest. I like how you separate your opinion from the computer. My question is simple. Do you give credence to the betting odds being more accurate than the polls?

See you next week

Frank

ANSWER: The polls are often wrong, and the betting odds do not seem much better. In 2016, the odds of a Hillary victory were 88% compared to 13% for Trump. Our computer called it correctly, as was the case with BREXIT. With over 70 million in early voting, the computer will be correct on the turnout.

More voters (154.6 million) turned out for the presidential election in 2020 than in 2016 (137.5 million), the most significant increase between consecutive presidential elections since record-keeping began in 1964. The problem with the 2020 election was the scare tactics using COVID. The mail-in ballots were 65,642,049. The combined early voting and mail-in during 2016 was only 12.6 million. With early voting exceeding 70 million, this is by far the largest turnout for early voting in history.

This was the riot when Trump won in 2016. There is even concern that they might try to assassinate Trump if he wins. He better keep some private bodyguards. These Neocons have seized power and will not simply go quietly. There are schemes rumored that the Transition Integrity Project, dominated by the LEFTISTS, will stage a major riot in DC if Trump wins far worse than in 2017. They intend to force him to call out the National Guard and then claim that is proof he is a dictator. They plan to block out everything Trump tries to do to paralyze the country. There is no more America.

The home buying frenzy seen during the pandemic years has ended. We are no longer in a seller’s market as the tides have shifted. The National Association of Realtors reported that home sales in the US slowed to a 14-year low this September.

Sales declined 3.5% on an annual basis. Existing homes declined 1% on a monthly basis to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.84 million on an annual basis. Home sales have not been this slow in the US since October 2010 when the housing market was recovering from the real estate crash.

Home prices are continuing to increase, rising for the 15th consecutive month. The median home price in America is 3% higher than one year ago at $404,500. The higher average home price has left many would-be buyers out of the market. First-time buyers accounted for only 26% of homes sold last month, but historically, they usually compose about 40% of all sales. Home prices have increased 49% in the past five years since the pandemic.

Inventory has been increasing with 1.39 million available properties, an astounding 23% increase from September 2023.

Mortgage rates on the 30-year reached their highest level in three months but remain well below last year’s high of around 8%

I forecast that real estate in the United States would turn into a buyer’s market in May 2024 going into August 2028 in a reversal from the buyer’s market we’ve experienced since 2020. The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.

The job market is cooling across America, slowing to a pace not seen since late 2020 during COVID lockdowns. Now, one must remember that natural disasters decimated numerous states. Yet, I tend to look at two things – public sector growth and manufacturing.

Unemployment stands at 4.1%, while the measure of discouraged and underemployed workers held steady at 7.7%. Per usual, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics revised their calculations for previous months. August’s growth whittled down to 78,000 and September’s calculation came in at 223,000, marking a total decline of 112,000 reported jobs in that two-month period.

The US has been desperate to revive its manufacturing sector. The Biden-Harris Administration had promised to create one million new manufacturing jobs in 2024, but 10 months of data later, and it seems not a single position was created. The BLS admitted that manufacturing jobs fell by 577,000 since March 2022. In October, the sector loss 49,000, largely attributed to the Boeing strike.

So, America is struggling to produce goods to sell. In the meantime, the federal government bulked up the public sector by 40,000 jobs. Those are 40,000 employees relying on taxpayer funds and pensions in a sector that only SUBTRACTS from GDP. Biden and Harris have increased the public sector by about 43,000 positions on average every month for the past 12 months.

The first release of data is always the most optimistic. The country is clearly on the wrong track as we are endlessly spending money on big government while the private sector is weakening.

There happens to be a correlation between an uptick in strokes and heart attacks during presidential elections. Harvard and the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) have both conducted studies showing a direct correlation between the election and an increase in hospitalizations and deaths from strokes and heart attacks.

“Around election season, just as we’ve seen in other world events, hurricanes, disasters, even the world cup, we have a spike in adrenaline, we have high blood pressure, that can lead to bleeding in the brain; it can lead to an ischemic stroke, or a clog in the brain,” said Dr. David Rose to Fox News. “It can lead to atrial fibrillation, it can lead to heart attacks because of vasoconstriction, tightening of the arteries.” He expects another uptick in medical events in the coming week.

Kaiser Permanente studied hospitalizations for cardiovascular events during the 2020 election and found a 17% in hospitalizations during the five days after the election. Heart attacks were an alarming 42% more prevalent during that time.

Even during the 2016 election, Kaiser noted a 62% increase in hospitalizations for a stroke or heart attack after the election. Cardiac arrhythmia cases rose 77% in the six-week period after that election.

We cannot alter history nor can we control the future. We can do our best to make an impact and prepare for the future. No cycle, be it political or business, can be altered. My life’s work and the creation of Socrates involved researching the past to predict the future, but the outcome cannot be manipulated. Despite the blatant injustices we are experiencing, we must protect ourselves by remaining calm this election season.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I’m sure you do not remember me. I worked on Capital Hill when you were shuffling around the halls pitching to reform the debt and social security. This interview was too short, and you did not get to explain the full scope of what you were doing. I think you should also state your plan to revise Social Security.

RB

ANSWER: I think you were in the office next to Bill Archer. Yes, you are correct. I was also asked back then to reform Social Security and transform it into a Wealth Fund. That was part of the debt reform to eliminate debt, which meant they used Social Security to buy debt that would have to end. I laid out that we would convert to a Wealth Fund, allocating to managers who submitted their track records only with at least a 10-year live history. The Democrats would not go for it, claiming it was risky, and they wanted to reallocate the fund to managers they selected if they won back the House. The Dow Jones Industrials was 5500 at the time. We would have saved the country and everyone’s future.

The System will crumble, and people will be robbed of their future all because we have career politicians running the government rather than We the People. We NEED a Direct Democracy. I will dive into that at the WEC.