COMMENT: When I ask someone about your theories, they claim you are unconventional. They said the same thing about Einstein and even Kynes in the early 1920s. It seems that anyone who thinks outside the box is labeled unconventional, but in the end, they adopt the very theories and become conventional. They seem to make history repeat, for they always defend their position, which is obviously wrong.

I just wanted to say that historical recurrence is not something new. It has played an important role in developing Western historiography since antiquity. I am sure you are well versed. The view that “history repeats itself” is characteristically Greek. They understood everything was cyclical from the observations of cosmic and social cycles. I believe you have explained that history repeats itself better than anyone. It is human nature for people to respond the same way to similar situations regardless of the century.

Your intention to hold a WEC for the next generation is vital. You are offering something academia will only acknowledge when they are forced into embarrassment as to place during the Great Depression. Only then did they turn to Keynes.

There are those of us willing to donate to such a project.

Please consider the importance of this for the next generation.

Paul

ANSWER: History repeats because human nature is constant regardless of the century. But it is often also driven by notions of retribution, rebirth, reenactment, and imitation. Both Hitler and Napoleon sought to resurrect the old Roman Empire. Because I witnessed the debasement of silver coinage in 1965 and was familiar with the debasement of Roman coinage and how they, too silver, plated bronze coinage to retain the appearance of silver as we created a nickel-clad coinage in 1965, as a kid, I instantly saw history repeating.

Here is a Roman coin of Marius (268AD). You can see that the silver plating is starting to wear off, revealing the core is merely bronze. Inflation was soaring, and President Kennedy signed an executive order to remove silver from the coinage in 1963. Here, we see in Rome that inflation also soared once emperor Valerian I (253-260AD) was captured in battle by the Persians – the first emperor to have even been captured. That also set in motion a financial panic where bankers were uncertain if they should even accept Roman coins anymore.

By the middle of the second century BC, Rome, Polybius of Megalopolis, had written his Historiae to explain how Rome conquered the known world. These thirty-nine books received their finality after 146BC. At first, Polybius was interested in Greek affairs. He was stunned by the rise of Rome and its rapid expansion into an empire. He attempted what he would call universal history rather than just looking at Rome as a local aberration or fluke. His Anacyclōsis offered basic paradigms of historical recurrence that were below the surface. Indeed, Polybius established that studying history provided sound political training (cf. Hist. I, I,2).

Polybius’s famous discussion of the mixed character of Rome’s republican constitution is found in Book 6, chap. 5. It was certainly Polybius who presupposed that past events reflected various paradigmatic movements and patterns that would reemerge in current and future affairs. It seems that the Dark Ages, which saw the death of knowledge and independent thought in Europe, also altered our understanding of the world and cycles. 

They burned Giordano Bruno (1548–1600) alive at the stake for merely agreeing with Calpurnicus in suggesting that the Earth rotated around the sun. The stupidity of the closed-minded at that time saw Haven must be above and Hell was below, so if the Earth was not fixed, then all religion was wrong. Thus, burn him alive as a heretic.

I greatly appreciate the offer. We will do something like that, for I do not have the time to write a plan for students.

The Jobs report illustrates the silent, disturbing reality that has been the truth behind the disastrous Biden-Harris administration’s economic agenda and misplaced priorities from Russia, Russia, Russia to climate change, and the Schwab Agenda from Davos. The reactions from the mainstream media and Washington elites continue the propaganda and skewing of the data to serve their agenda that has been bought and paid for.

The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, the Labor Department said, but the dirt is in the details. The media spun this as Job gains for September and October were revised up by a total 56,000. September’s tally was upgraded from 223,000 to 255,000, and October’s from 12,000 to 36,000. These changes painted a brighter picture of the job market in late summer and early fall than previously believed.

However, when we dig deeper, over the past year, full-time jobs are actually down by 1.27 million, unemployment is up, and people are being forced to take on multiple jobs to make ends meet that the press does not want to talk about. President Trump is sleep-walking into a recession that he will be blamed for, yet has been inherited from the Biden-Harris administration’s surrender to the NEOCONs, who are more interested in sending g money to Ukraine than looking at the future of our economy. The sanctions on Russia should be removed, and energy prices will fall. But the NEOCONs are desperately seeking to destroy Russia, and this coup in Syria has been their goal for decades to create a pipeline from Qatar through Syria to get gas to Europe and then to cut off Russian income to destroy its economy. With every breath these people take, it is always about the conquest of Russia and to hell with the United States economy and its people.

Coinage began in Lydia, which is located in modern-day Turkey. They waged war against Persia and lost. The economic consequences of war were established back then. Their coinage was debased as the cost of war raged on. War benefits nobody. Our NEOCONs do not care about our future. The legislation I would propose is that anyone pro-war should take up a gun and go to the vanguard position and stop sending other people’s children to die for their dreams and hatred.

Unemployment has begun to rise during the Biden Administration, and we have a Directional Change in 2026, which is an important near-term turning point. Look forward, and here too we see 2032 as a panic cycle with Directional Changes. It is the 2029/2030 period that looks to be dominated by turmoil. Unfortunately, we must extract ourselves from the NEOCON thirst for imperialism and focus back on what government is supposed to be about – the maintenance of domestic conditions.

It is the prospect of Europe in the hands of the NEOCONs, desperate to create World War III to invoke Article 5 to compel Trump to send troops to invade Russia, that remains the greatest threat to our future. These people will destroy Western Civilization in the process, and that is what 2032 is all about—the destruction of republican forms of government.

CEO of Lucid Motors and a former VP of engineering at Tesla Peter Rawlinson says his company is stuck in the EV “valley of death” as EVs in America “frankly suck.” Rawlinson admitted that China has an advantage in technology, but more over, they have the ability to produce affordable EVs.

“I think the Chinese do have a fundamental advantage because when the government says go, they all go in the same direction instead of arguing with each other,” Rawlinson said. China has provided over $230 billion to its newly emerging EV sector since 2009. “I’d say they’re still behind in terms of the core EV powertrain technology, but don’t underestimate them,” Rawlinson added.

The CEO also said that he personally drives the competitors cars and believes the “American public has been ill-served by underwhelming EVs.” His company is on track to produce a new electric SUV called Gravity that will retail for $94,900. Quality EVs are available in America but they come at a steep price which is why they have not become mainstream.

He is not alone in his thinking among industry leaders. Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares previously believed China’s EVs would have a similar reception to the US public that Japanese autos did back in the 1970s. That was

Batteries account for around 40% of the total cost of EVs, and companies like BYD are able to maintain low prices are they own the supply chain to create these batteries from the raw materials to the finished packs.

The West is unaware how affordable Chinese EVs actually are without tariffs. The BYD Seagull EV Honor Edition starts at about $9,700. The BYD Dolphin EV Honor costs only $13,900 and the BYD Yuan electric SUV is $16,600. You cannot find used cars for these prices in the US, let alone an EV.

If those pushing to eliminate fossil fuels were truly concerned about emissions, they would permit China to import these EVs to Europe, Canada, and America without astronomical tariffs. Capital makes the world flow. They are deliberately preventing the Western public from purchasing affordable, good quality vehicles. Instead, they expect the average man to take on tens of thousands in debt to buy a lower quality car to save on fuel.

The International Monetary Fund is willing to provide El Salvador with a $1.3 billion loan, but the nation must meet two demands. First, El Salvador must commit to reducing its budget deficit to 3.5% of GDP over the next three years. The second requirement is for El Salvador to begin backing away from bitcoin.

El Salvador declared bitcoin legal tender in 2021. The nation holds a bitcoin Treasury worth over $600 million as of lately with bitcoin’s recent price spike and has been purchasing about 1 btc per day. President Nayib Bukele recently took to social media to declare the success of his bitcoin adaptation, claiming gains of over 127%. Yet, the public has not largely adopted the new currency. In fact, the Central American University conducted a study in January that revealed 88% of citizens have not used bitcoin in transactions over the previous year.

Under the new IMF requirement, El Salvador must prohibit the legal requirement that states businesses must accept bitcoin as payment. Under this premise, bitcoin could not truly be considered legal tender.

As I have said, global organizations will not permit crypto to operate freely outside their control. I must agree with the IMF that Bitcoin’s volatile pricing presents financial instability and exposes government revenue to greater foreign exchange rate risks. Bitcoin is merely a trading vehicle and not a proper currency. However, the IMF also states that it is concerned about anti-money laundering practices. which simply means they are concerned that they cannot tax it.

Taxation goes hand in hand with lowering the budget deficit, as the nation has been steadily increasing tax revenue. Tax revenues reached 17.64% of GDP in 2017, later advancing to 19.75% in 2022. The government has several measures in place for tax evasion and has improved its digital taxpayer registry to see who has underpaid. There is hope that the recent discovery of gold will offset the hunt for taxation, and the president does seem to be a reasonable man. Perhaps El Salvador will not require a loan if it has truly found trillions worth of gold. It appears that Nayib Bukele will not back away from his stance on bitcoin either way.

The Pentagon announced that it will deliver a $988 million aid package to Ukraine ahead of Trump’s inauguration. The Biden Administration is rushing to deliver the remainder of the $5 BILLION pledge to Ukraine before January 20. Worse, Zelensky announced that he has plans to discuss NATO membership with Biden.

“It is difficult to talk to President Trump about this because he is not yet in the White House. By the way, I am going to call President Biden in the near future to raise the issue of Ukraine’s NATO invitation,” Zelensky said. Biden has previously called Ukraine’s request for membership premature and stated that the war must end before membership can be considered. We know that the commander-in-chief had been compromised years ago, but his recent pardon of Hunter may give him less ammunition to yield to Ukraine – unless they could potentially blackmail him personally.

Donald Trump recently came out to say that he has no plans to prosecute Joe Biden. The Biden family turned their hatred from Trump to the Democratic Party after they ousted Joe. Images have even emerged of Jill Biden happily sitting next to Donald Trump at the Notre Dame reopening, an image that Trump is now using in a marketing campaign.

There is hope that Biden will stand firm against Ukraine’s NATO membership. Germany, Slovakia, and Hungary are also against Ukraine joining at this time, but many others are willing to expedite the process.

Despite the required formal unanimous vote among the alliance, the United States is still the breadwinner for NATO and would have the final say when all is said and done. Trump would never permit Ukraine to join, but he could invoke Article 13 of the treaty and withdraw the United States. Those in opposition of Ukraine’s membership could do the same, particularly Hungary as Orban has a solid relationship with Putin and does not feel the need for protection at this time. A lot could happen over the next six weeks and time will tell what Biden has in store for the end of his presidency.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I hope you come to Dubai for a conference next year. After your Syrian forecast that the civil war would end only 13 years from the start in 2011, those of us here are still in shock and awe, as you say there in the States. I know your models have considered the cycles in Syria from Roman times. Is 2027 still the target in the Middle East?

BAF

ANSWER: Syria has a very long history. Antioch was the link to the Silk Road for all the dyes and spices from Asia. As you can see, it is sandwiched between Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel. Historically, it has also been known as the Levant and a strategic chess piece in the global war of geopolitics. The Seleucid Empire was a Greek state in West Asia during the Hellenistic period. It was founded in 312BC by the Macedonian general Seleucus I Nikator (312-281BC) when the Macedonian Empire founded by Alexander the Great was divided after his death among his generals.

Thus, Syria became known as the Seleucid dynasty until its annexation by the Roman Republic under Pompey in 63 BC, who conquered the region, transforming Syria into a Roman province. This has lent Syria the opportunity to provide a rich database extending centuries for computer analysis. First, you must acknowledge that laws are always silent during war and civil unrest. They are the decorations of civilization and only apply when there is civil cooperation – not war and upheaval.

The first Syrian to become a Roman Emperor was Elagabalus (218-222AD). This is always the same pattern of the conquered/slave eventually becoming king. Some pointed that out when Obama became President. This is a mere fact of history. The king is dead – long live the king. Another fact of history is when there is a civil uprising, the king may fall, but the victor quickly assumes the same policies as those he vanquished.

The English Civil War tore down the rule of law, and here you see Oliver Cromwell quickly issued coinage styled as the very king he had beheaded for daring to defend against him in the civil war. He put King Charles on trial, found him guilty for losing the civil war, and then beheaded him.

Civil Wars tend to last 4.3 years (American Civil War), 8.6 years (English Civil War), and even 13 years (Cambodian Civil War, 1967-1975). However, go beyond that 8.6-year period, and it will extend to 13 years.

Countless times when there have been civil wars, you find the head of state when captured, is often executed. This seems to be standard. When they are dead, they will routinely topple their statues as they did throughout Eastern Europe, toppling the statues of Lenin.

Civil Wars always invoke deep hatred, and when leaders are not executed, what you find is often assassinations of the victor. They assassinated Julius Caesar after he won the civil war. These are cyclical patterns that routinely take place. There was an attempted assassination of Zelensky, and he fired his head of security because it was Ukrainians – not Russians. There was a similar attempted assassination of Hitler.

Assad is wise to flee with his family to Russia, for they would have all been executed just as the Russian Revolution executed the entire family of the Czar. People who engaged in civil wars and/or revolutions always responded the same way, no matter what culture or nation was involved. The Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi also fled Iran in 1978 during that revolution. These things may appear to be a shock, but they are standard in the playbook of geopolitics.

I have previously warned that Turkey has the largest army in the Middle East, and Erdogan praised the Hamas attack because he dreams of resurrecting the Ottoman Empire and he sees himself as the leader. They are mortal enemies of Greece and that goes back to the fall of the Byzantine Empire. Turkey has funded these rebels, and that became possible only because Israel destroyed Hezbollah. On the one hand, you have the US cheering Al-Qaeda all because the Neocons have been trying for years to overthrow all three dictators they created in Syria, Iraq, and Libya. Now, they can get the pipeline from Qutar to cut off Russia’s energy sales to Europe. So this is all about Russia, Russia, Russia. Meanwhile, they are so fixated on conquering Russia that they have ignored the real threat in the Middle East of the resurrection of the Ottoman Empire.

I will update the prospects for war in the Middle East and the power vacuum that is unfolding that is hidden behind the headlines. Most people have no idea that it was the West that created all of these arab states. They were never independent nation-states.  With World War I, the West finally took down the Ottoman Empire. This was when the Sykes-Picot Agreement was established as a 1916 secret treaty between the United Kingdom and France, with the consent of Russia, Italy, and the United States. They were carving up the Ottoman Empire, which they mutually agreed to establish spheres of influence, thereby partitioning the Ottoman Empire. Syria was created, and the rule of Assad was in the economic interests of the West.

I have been asked why I do not write much about the Israeli war and offer a solution. There is NONE!!!! This is a religious war, and a ceasefire will only be temporary. Israel’s enemies are not limited to Iran. It also includes Turkey as we move forward in time. We still see 2027 as a critical target for the region.

We will publish an update on the geopolitical future of the Middle East for the Arab world and Israel. This will be released in January.

A hoard of Roman Nails was discovered during the 1960s. They are documented from the 1st century at the time of the Crucifixion. While most of the nails were retained by the museums after the discovery, a small portion was allowed to be sold privately. This hoard was buried to prevent others from finding them. Barbarian tribes would have melted them down to make weapons and shields. Iron was a valuable metal to many of the barbarian tribes. Hence, this hoard was a remarkable find from the 1960s. They finally allowed some to be sold only in 1999.

We only have a small handful of these Roman Nails from the 1st Century AD. However, they are certainly interesting Roman artifacts with a tinge of history. They are presented in a shadow box.

1st Century Roman Nail in Shadow-Box ………………. $35

We Will Put These in the STORE on Wednesday, December 11th at 12 noon

4th century bronze numis of the Constantine era and later.

For this hoard, we will put in packets of 5 unattributed coins for $62.50 that, if you would like to give to a child or grandchild, they can investigate to see who issued each coin themselves. It would be a bit of a game for them if they knew how to use the Internet. These are reasonably priced for fun and to open the youth’s minds to the idea that you can actually hold an ancient Roman coin.

Domestic Shipping $72.50

International Shipping $82.50

We Will Put These in the STORE on Wednesday, December 11th at 12 noon

Marcus Aurelius Carinus (283-285AD) was the elder son of the Emperor Carus born about 249 – 250 AD. During the spring of 283AD, Carinus was given the rank of Caesar shortly after his father’s accession to the throne. Carinus remained behind in Rome in the West when his father and younger brother, Numerian set out for the Eastern frontier. Carinus was then left in charge of the administration of the Western provinces. Meanwhile, his father had been successful in driving back the Persian threat in the East. However, before he could expand on his victory, Carus was struck dead by lightning. Carinus and his brother were raised to the rank of Augustus during the late summer of 283 AD.

His brother Numerian was slowly making his way back to Rome with his legions. In November 284 AD, he was discovered murdered in his litter. This then left Carinus as sole emperor of Rome.

The death of Carus and Numerian prompted the attempted rebellion in the Balkans by late 284 AD. A usurper appeared, Marcus Aurelius Julianus, who was proclaimed emperor in Pannonia. Carinus set out in early 285AD to meet the challenge of this new threat that was now advancing upon Italy. Carinus confronted Julianus near Verona and soundly defeated this usurper. However, a more serious threat was now coming from his brother’s army. Diocletian, who was commander at the time, was proclaimed emperor. He had been the former governor of Moesia and commander of the Praetorian bodyguard. Carinus move to meet this new threat from Diocletian and the Eastern legions. Carinus‘ forces outnumbered those of Diocletian, and at the moment when victory was near, Carinus was murdered by one of his own officers.

According to Historiae Augusta, Carinus was a bisexual corrupter of youth, had nine wives, and forced himself upon the wives of others. This is most likely propaganda put forth by Diocletian. Nonetheless, there is perhaps some truth to this story. Carinus was murdered for his seduction of the wives of some of his soldiers. The account of his having nine wives is most likely untrue since Magnia Urbica was the only wife for which coinage was struck. No doubt, he was not a well-liked man. Eutropius Breviarium (IX.19) also states that he was the seducer of the wives of nobles and that he was a cruel and vindictive person.

Carus, Carinus, Numerian and Magnia Urbica were officially condemned after their deaths. Their inscriptions were also erased from Rome. Thus, with the death of Carinus, the empire fell into the hands of Diocletian who would make the most bold reforms ever in hopes of bringing to an end, the past 50 years of crisis and turmoil within the empire.

In Carinus’s coinage, we still see the Aurelian standard reformed coinage, 1/20th part silver with silver plating. This group of coinage is rather exceptional, for most of the silver plating is still intact, which is difficult to find.

AE Antoninianus with Silver Plating …………….  $200

We Will Put These in the STORE on Wednesday, December 11th at 12 noon