Sovereign Debt Crisis Unfolding

March 21, 2025

Debt Burden

I have been warning that we are approaching World War III as a distraction from the collapse of sovereign debt in Japan and Europe.  The total outstanding government and corporate bonds globally have now exceeded $100 trillion in 2024, as reported by the OECD. As I have also been warning, the central banks have been neutered. They can no longer fight inflation by raising interest rates because government debt just explodes. Governments have NO INTENTION of ever paying off their debt. They think there is no end to this game.

COVID pushed most governments off the edge. You have the World Economic Forum pushing for lockdowns as wonderful because they were really about keeping people home and stopping their commuting to work to stop climate change. In the process, they undermined commercial real estate and sent debt levels soaring all for the planet.

2022 Germanys Greens Pro War DER_SPIEGEL

Then you have the Greens in Europe cheering World War III to destroy Russia because they are the biggest producer of fossil fuels. So, we now risk nuclear war to save the planet? This is like someone punching you in the face first and calling it self-defense because they knew you wanted to hit them first.

Biden Secon Term

They had two idiots listening to their nonsense: Biden, who would have asked if we get enough of the bastards to save the planet, and King Charles, who seems to be thoroughly brainwashed into the green movement.

2016 ECB Negative scaled

While central banks are cutting interest rates, borrowing costs remain much higher than before 2022’s rate hikes because the ECM, in particular, went to negative interest rates in 2014, which only encouraged governments to issue more debt. This all comes at a time when the EU wants to fund an army and prepare for war as a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029.

Weidel Alice The co leader of Alternative for Germany party

In Germany, Mertz refused to form a normal government with the #2 party AfD. Instead, he chose to bring in the two parties that wanted war and were voted out. She said, “The corks are popping among the election losers, the SPD and the Greens.” Weidel appropriately added: “And accordingly, this is the death knell for the euro.”

Germ Bunds Y 2 20 25

Mertz has abandoned the debt restraint of Germany to retain power. Germany is heading into a very serious debt crisis for 20-26, and this does not bode well for Europe or the Euro.

France 10YR Y array 3 20 25

Nearly HALF of ALL outstanding government debt among OECD countries and emerging markets and around ONE THIRD of corporate debt will mature by 2027. Our computer is showing PANIC Cycles in 2026 around the globe. The defaults come when you cannot sell the NEW debt to pay off the old.

There are people who are repeating our forecast, pretending they are theirs. Nobody on a human level can possibly account for all the variables around the world. That cannot be done except by the only fully functioning AI system that has discovered the secret of time. No individual has the track record to back up their statements. This is not about “I think” nonsense. It is not my personal dream to have to live through my own computer’s forecasts. They think they can be in the limelight pretending these are their forecasts, but they are ill-equipped to actually see how and when this unfolds.

Debt Burden

On top of all of these, many emerging markets, including China and now even Canada, are issuing debt denominated in US dollars. The older issues have also lost on the foreign exchange. Carney in Canada has just demonstrated his true lack of understanding of financial markets. He dumped US Treasuries but then issued Canadian debt denominated in dollars. As the C$ declines, he will lose on the return of the foreign exchange as well. Even the OECD report found that the costs of borrowing through dollar-denominated bonds had risen from around 4% in 2020 to more than 6% in 2024, rising to more than 8% for riskier, junk-rated economies nations.

Sovereign Debt Crisis Begins

The funding of NET-ZERO projects has been a huge loss. The OECD said funding the net-zero emissions would face a $10 trillion shortfall to meet Paris climate agreement goals by 2050. There is no way they can fund this, plus World War III and they never consider that everything is coming to the point of a major Sovereign Debt default that the government will not survive. Add the trade wars and what our model shows a major recession globally into 2028; it is hard to see how many countries can even make it to 2029.

Market Talk – March 20, 2025

March 20, 2025

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
• NIKKEI 225 closed
• Shanghai decreased 17.48 points or -0.51% to 3,408.95
• Hang Seng decreased 551.19 points or -2.23% to 24,219.95
• ASX 200 increased 90.60 points or 1.16% to 7,918.90
• SENSEX increased 899.01 points or 1.19% to 76,348.06
• Nifty50 increased 283.05 points or 1.24% to 23,190.65
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD decreased 0.00668 or -1.05% to 0.62904
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00428 or -0.74% to 0.57420
• USDJPY increased 0.102 or 0.07% to 148.795
• USDCNY increased 0.02252 or 0.31% to 7.25391
The above data was collected around 13:28 EST.
Precious Metals:
•  Gold decreased 12.9 USD/t oz. or -0.42% to 3,037.07
•  Silver decreased 0.502 USD/t. oz. or -1.48% to 33.401
The above data was collected around 13:35 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today:
•  CAC 40 decreased 77.27 points or -0.95% to 8,094.20
•  FTSE 100 decreased 4.67 points or -0.05% to 8,701.99
•  DAX 30 decreased 288.91 points or -1.24% to 22.999.15
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD decreased 0.006 or -0.55% to 1.08427
• GBPUSD decreased 0.00423 or -0.33% to 1.29607
• USDCHF increased 0.00407 or 0.46% to 0.88190
The above data was collected around 13:43 EST.

US/AMERICAS:

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 11.31 points or -0.03% to 41,953.32
  • S&P 500 declined 12.4 points or -0.22% to 5,662.89
  • Nasdaq declined 59.16 points or -0.33% to 17,691.63
  • Russell 2000 declined 13.67 points or -0.66% to 2,068.41

 

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 8.97 points or  -0.04% to 25,060.24
  • TSX 60 declined 1.71 points or -0.11% to 1,503.69

 

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 374.21 points or -0.28% to 132,134.24
ENERGY:
The oil markets had a mixed day today:
•  Crude Oil increased 1.15 USD/BBL or 1.72% to 68.060
•  Brent increased 1.175 USD/BBL or 1.66% to 71.955
•  Natural gas decreased 0.2605 USD/MMBtu or -6.13% to 3.9865
•  Gasoline increased 0.0151 USD/GAL or 0.70% to 2.1863
•  Heating oil increased 0.0104 USD/GAL or 0.46% to 2.2502
The above data was collected around 13:47 EST.
•  Top commodity gainers: Sugar (1.74%), Rhodium (4.91%), Bitumen (2.50%) and Orange Juice (2.47%)
•  Top commodity losers: Platinum (-1.91%), Natural Gas (-6.13%), Palladium (-1.63%) and Canola (-1.76%)
The above data was collected around 14:00 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 1.5310% (-0.03bp), US 2’s 3.97% (-0.021%), US 10’s 4.2420% (+0.5bps); US 30’s 4.56% (+0.007%), Bunds 2.7805% (-1.75bp), France 3.4800% (+1bp), Italy 3.8510% (+1.05bp), Turkey 29.23% (+47bp), Greece 3.588% (-0.2bp), Portugal 3.296% (+3.5bp); Spain 3.413% (+2.4bp) and UK Gilts 4.6580% (+1.62bp)
The above data was collected around 14:14 EST.

Ukraine Invests in Western Border – $1.5B Ski Resort

March 20, 2025

GoroMountainResortUkraine

“THE FIRST ALL-SEASON MOUNTAIN RESORT IN UKRAINE WITH AN INTERNATIONAL FORMAT, A HOLISTIC CONCEPT AND THE BROADEST PALETTE OF IMPRESSIONS, SERVICES AND ATTRACTIONS”

The war in Ukraine has left the nation utterly insolvent, almost entirely reliant on foreign aid. President Zelensky claims he cannot account for billions in aid, urging world leaders to send more rapidly as he must prevent Russia from invading all of Europe. Peace is not an option as “the worst conflict since World War II” rages on with no end in sight. In the meantime, Ukraine spent £1.2 billion ($1.5 billion) to improve its tourism sector by building a massive luxury ski resort.

The luxury resort will span 2,965 acres, feature 25 hotels with 5,5000 rooms, with 41 ski slopes spanning 46.6 miles. The GORO Mountain Resort project was supposed to begin in 2022, but was delayed due to the obvious. OKKO Group, Ukraine’s largest network of gas stations, suddenly changed plans and believes now is the time to begin building the project that will take an estimated 15 years to complete.

As a bonus, GORO Mountain Resort will be located in Lviv, adjacent to Ukraine’s border with Poland. Poland’s defense budget has multiplied as it rushes to fight off Russian aggression at its own border. Donald Tusk has demanded that every male in Poland undergo military training, and he plans to expand the nation’s 200,000 army to one boasting 500,000 troops, which would make it the third-largest military force in NATO behind the United States and Turkey. In November 2024, 55% of Poles said they supported ending the war even if Ukraine was forced to surrender territory. The people do not want war but those at the helm will send them off to die under the guise of protecting national sovereignty.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has threatened neighboring nations like Poland with untold repercussions if they fail to strangle their own agricultural sector by extending Ukraine’s duty-free trade deal. Ukraine has warned that Eastern European nations will suffer the worst of the consequences.

UkraineSkiResortGORO

Yet, the GORO Mountain Resort boasts easy access to those neighboring nations, with direct train travel from “Vienna, Budapest, Kyiv, Dnipro, Odesa, Kharkiv, and more, with the Slavsko station (5 km from the resort).”

Ukraine claims that Russian gas may not pass through its nation as it does not its foe to receive a single euro. Zelensky and others do not care that their allied neighbors like Hungary and Slovakia desperately need the gas line reimplemented in order to provide their nations with essential energy. Perhaps the Ukrainian government could suggest an alternative through a company such as OKKO Group.

It was a known fact that Ukraine was a corrupt nation before the war began and the government rebranded itself as a delicate victim that simply wants the best for its people—its people who have been sent off to die while those in charge refuse to negotiate with Russia. Zelensky has also said that the war will last for many years to come, yet his war-ravaged nation plans to build a billion-dollar resort near its border with Poland to attract tourism. Greed and corruption will be the end of Ukraine. In fact, based on our computer model, there will be no Ukraine in 15 years when this facility is set to open.

Millions of Americans Delinquent on Student Loans

March 20, 2025

Hillary Students

Millions of Americans believed that their student loans would be forgiven per the promises made under Biden Administration. Then there was a period of student loan forgiveness that began during the COVID era when countless people found themselves unemployed. Payments have resumed but 9.2 million (43% of federal loan borrowers) have fallen over 90 days behind on payments.

Instead of forgiveness, these delinquencies will remain on these borrower’s credit reports for seven years. Delinquencies show on all three major credit bureaus (TransUnion, Experian, and Equifax) through nationwide credit reporting agencies (NCRAs). The result is an immediate drop in credit scores of up to 250 points.

So over 9 million Americans experienced a massive downturn in their ability to borrow instantaneously. Many may not realize that one missed student loan payment can be counted as up to eight missed payments. Credit scores are calculated and weighted differently depending on where you look. FICO factors in payment history as 35% of one’s overall credit score, while VantageScore factors in missed payments as 40% of creditworthiness.

Student loan payments have not appeared on credit reports for the past five years. Those who are able to meet their loan obligation will see a positive uptick in their score. VantageScore reported that they believe 2.3 million borrowers will see their credit rating fall beneath 600 once these payments reappear on consumer credit files. These people will have an extreme difficulty obtaining new loans.

Thanks to the Clinton Administration repealing Glass Steagall, student loans may not be discharged in the event of bankruptcy. Default and the entire balance is due immediately, with an addition of up to 25% of the loan balance in collection fees. The government may withhold Social Security benefits and tax refunds and will repeal any federal financial aid. Certain professional licenses could be suspended. Defaulting makes it hard for borrowers to access forbearance, deferment, and other repayment options. On top of everything, the government can begin to garnish wages WITHOUT a court order.

Schumer Mocks “Greedy” Americans for Questioning Taxation

March 20, 2025

Minority Leader of the US Senate Chuck Schumer admitted on national television what the government thinks of the people—your money belongs to them. “Their attitude is, ‘I made my money all by myself. How dare your government take my money from me?'” Schumer stated in a mocking tone.

“I don’t want to pay taxes. Or, I built my company with my bare hands. How dare your government tell me how I should treat my customers, the land and water that I own, or my employees?” Schumer, with an estimated net worth of $81 million, continued. “They hate government. Government’s a barrier to people, a barrier to stop them from doing things. They want to destroy it. We are not letting them do it, and we’re united. Okay.” This further emphasized his view that certain individuals see the government as an obstacle and wish to dismantle it.”

People hate the government due to career politicians like Schumer who believe they have the right to control the people through excessive taxation. Schumer and others who constantly push for tax increases genuinely believe that the people are stealing from the government. Forget that you pay taxes on everything you own, sell, and save—the government needs MORE to fund agendas that the people do not vote on.

DOGE has been highlighting how utterly irresponsible and reckless government spending has become. No one voted to fund transgender care in Bangladesh, for example, or the infinite funds sent to secure foreign borders. The Constitutional protection of no taxation without representation has been eliminated. It matters not how much the government collects from the people as it will NEVER be sufficient to cover their spending, let alone the national debt that is a ticking time bomb.

schumer TIME cover R

Then you have people like Chuck Schumer who have NEVER held a job outside of politics and could not be further removed from the valid concerns of the people he claims to represent. He has made his fortune through LOBBYING and CORRUPTION off the backs of those who actually WORK and contribute to our economy. These are the swamp creatures who repeatedly raise our taxes, year after year, and hypocritically mock us for desiring a better quality of life.

Direct taxation is what the Founding Fathers in the US forbid. Politicians are destroying the world economy and this issue is certainly not unique to America. The Common Reporting Standard (CRS) is an information standard for the automatic exchange of tax and financial information on a global level. It was put together by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) back in 2014. Its purpose was to hunt down tax evasion primarily for the European Union. They took the concept from the US Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), which imposed liabilities on foreign institutions if they did not report what Americans were doing outside the country.

The globalist trend toward Marxism where “you will own nothing and be happy” is precisely why our computer believes we are in for a complete change in the structure of government. Beforehand, we will see governments attempt to collect MORE from the people through new and increased taxes. The left wishes to increase the public sector so that everyone is utterly dependent on the government for survival. CBDC will create a cashless society to ensure governments can track and collect money instantaneously, as the main premise behind CBDC is the belief that the people should be paying at least 35% more to our overlords.

Nations crumble when governments continually rob the people through taxation.

Powell – The Fed- Inflation – Recession

March 20, 2025

Powell Jerome

Jerome Powell kept rates unchanged as our computer was projecting. However, he did weigh in on the state of the US economy, pointing out that Donald Trump’s policies were one reason why inflation is turning back up. He also reduced the Fed’s 2025 growth projection, noting that uncertainty around the slowing economy is increasing. The Fed is well aware of the Economic Confidence Model. Both Canada and the Fed started to lower rates when the ECM had turned down last May.

935 ECM 2020 2028

Powell said, “Inflation has started to move up,” adding that “there may be a delay in further progress over the course of this year.” The confusion people have is that, as I have pointed out before, government employees are counted TWICE in GDP. First as total government spending and second as total personal income. So, firing government employees will have a larger more exaggerated impact on GDP going forward.

US_Discount_Rate M Array 3 19 25

Investors have reacted negatively to Trump’s global trade war and the mounting retaliation from abroad. What they fail to grasp is that the main reason companies left the USA was over worldwide taxation. American companies were always at a disadvantage when compared to Europeans competing in the world market. The S&P 500 fell nearly 10% from mid-February because of the failure to understand the real trade impact of the high tariffs. Trump, meanwhile, has perhaps promoted recession fears, with the Republicans saying the economy faces a “period of transition” and that his tariffs will eventually mean more US jobs.

Civil Work Force

Socialist academic economists do not look beyond our shores and say that Trump’s tariffs will be a significant loss. They compare this to the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 1930s, blaming them for the Great Depression because they are incapable of thinking about two variables simultaneously. The tariffs were primarily on agriculture because the Dust Bowl reduced crops, and Europe offered them cheaper. The economy was 41% employed in agriculture, and that is why unemployment soared to 25%, creating the ho-bo movement. No legislation could have made it rain. Crop shortage in the USA led to rising prices, and Europe did not have that problem and was selling crops at reduced prices. The farmers demanded the tariffs.

US_CPI Y Array 3 19 25

Powell admitted that recession odds had moved up but weren’t high. He disagreed with the University of Michigan survey, which showed a sharp increase in long-term inflation expectations. We agree. Socrates is showing that volatility in inflation was to begin here in 2025 and rise stronger in 2026, but it will be the 2027-2028 period when it becomes critical that it is correlated with our war models.

Market Talk – March 19, 2025

March 19, 2025

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
• NIKKEI 225 decreased 93.54 points or -0.25% to 37,751.88
• Shanghai decreased 3.33 points or -0.10% to 3,426.43
• Hang Seng increased 30.57 points or 0.12% to 24,771.14
• ASX 200 decreased 32.10 points or -0.41% to 7,828.30
• SENSEX increased 147.79 points or 0.20% to 75,449.05
• Nifty50 increased 73.30 points or 0.32% to 22,907.60
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD decreased 0.00263 or -0.41% to 0.63351
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00400 or -0.68% to 0.57783
• USDJPY increased 0.304 or 0.20% to 149.575
• USDCNY increased 0.00504 or 0.07% to 7.23293
The above data was collected around 14:08 EST.
Precious Metals:
•  Gold increased 4.41 USD/t oz. or 0.15% to 3,036.10
•  Silver decreased 0.346 USD/t. oz. or -1.02% to 33.611
The above data was collected around 14:12 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day today:
•  CAC 40 increased 56.90 points or 0.70% to 8,171.47
•  FTSE 100 increased 1.43 points or 0.02% to 8,706.66
•  DAX 30 decreased 92.64 points or -0.40% to 23.288.06
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD decreased 0.00546 or -0.50% to 1.08905
• GBPUSD decreased 0.00158 or -0.12% to 1.29861
• USDCHF increased 0.00202 or 0.23% to 0.87885
The above data was collected around 14:16 EST.
ENERGY:
The oil markets had a green day today:
•  Crude Oil increased 0.172 USD/BBL or 0.26% to 67.072
•  Brent increased 0.167 USD/BBL or 0.24% to 70.727
•  Natural gas increased 0.1611 USD/MMBtu or 3.98% to 4.2131
•  Gasoline increased 0.0037 USD/GAL or 0.17% to 2.1681
•  Heating oil increased 0.0328 USD/GAL or 1.49% to 2.2306
The above data was collected around 14:16 EST.
•  Top commodity gainers: Cheese (6.89%), Rhodium (3.70%), Natural Gas (3.98%) and Orange Juice (7.99%)
•  Top commodity losers: Lean Hogs (-2.03%), Rice (-1.83%), Bitumen (-2.49%) and Butter (-2.29%)
The above data was collected around 14:23 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 1.5310% (+2.52bp), US 2’s 4.03% (-0.019%), US 10’s 4.2880% (-0.2bps); US 30’s 4.59% (-0.001%), Bunds 2.7715% (-4.35bp), France 3.4760% (-1.35bp), Italy 3.8380% (-2bp), Turkey 28.76% (+232bp), Greece 3.597% (-4.3bp), Portugal 3.274% (-3.5bp); Spain 3.399% (-2.8bp) and UK Gilts 4.6420% (-0.53bp)
The above data was collected around 14:27 EST.

Gold – Geopolitical vs Inflation

March 19, 2025

20 gold Roll 1 R

COMMENT: Marty, I spoke to a friend at the __________ bank in NY, and he said on gold, listen to Armstrong. I found that interesting since he was well up there in the Bank’s food chain. He also said this is geopolitical, not inflation.

Kevin

ANSWER: Well, as I have said, gold’s not stopping when it is geopolitical. We gave our price and timing targets. Forget the BS about inflation. Gold is rising for the safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions increase. Banks that do follow us know that we are bullish on bullion’s safe-haven status as anxiety escalates about the global economy. The fact that the Federal Reserve is poised to keep borrowing costs steady realizes that Keynesian Economics is dead. The rise in interest rates no longer stops inflation because government expenditures rise, and politicians will NEVER reduce spending because the Fed raises rates.

 

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