With little help provided by the US Asia had yet another quiet summer trading session. The Nikkei opened lower but recouped losses ahead of the lunchtime break, only to edge lower again during afternoon trading. News remains light even after a slightly better mfg PMI data only managed a short-term bounce and by end of trading we were down 0.65%. The weaker index encouraged the renewed JPY strength as late this evening we trade just above par having seen sub-par trading during the day. The Yen strength always hits exporters and we saw Honda, Toyota and Nissan lower closing around 1.8% down. In late US trading Nikkei futures have regained 0.4% even as the JPY hovers around 100.

European indices traded from strength to strength as the day wore on. We saw better than expected German and Eurozone PMI releases with a mixture of readings. The Services PMI for Germany was below expectation whilst Manufacturing improved, we saw the opposite for the Eurozone. In quiet markets all economic data releases count and so all core indices we happy to take the lead. The DAX closed +0.95%, CAC +0.75%, IBEX finished +1.3% and FTSE +0.6%. Worth noting also that the DXY (USD currency Index) closed almost unchanged implying not currency related. German GDP tomorrow together with a tap of the 5yr Bund (OBL #174) after the data release at around mid-morning.

US traded better probably following Europe’s lead by never really managed to break into fresh highs. All early gains were lost and we closed the session around the days lows. Tech, Materials and Consumers were all making early ground but sadly all closed lower. Many dealers are still focused on this Friday comments from Yellen in the hope that monetary policy will be made a little clearer. Ahead of that though we will see US Jobless Claims (being a Thursday) and the volatile Durable Goods Orders; expected at +3.3% previous release was -3.9%. New Home Sales showed a huge surge today but the market was in no mood to turn and we drifted into the close.

An almost lifeless Treasury market today closing almost unchanged across the curve! It was left to Europe to provide direction and comment. US 10’S closed 1.54% (unchanged). Bunds were better bid however, along with the most of the peripheral markets. 10yr Bund closed -0.10%; closing the US/Germany spread at +164bp. 5’s underperformed on the fly ahead of tomorrow tap (currently looks around 1.5bp cheap). Italy 10’s 1.12% (+1bp), Greece 7.90% (u/c), Turkey 9.56% (-7bp), Portugal 2.97% (-2bp) and Gilt 10yr 0.54%. Super Long Gilts (30yrs) were 4.5bp better bid this evening closing 1.26% as the BOE chased prices.

There has been a lot of chatter and speculation behind the curtain about another Snowden who is getting things out of the NSA. Now, hacking tools seem to be up for sale. The NSA has been blaming Russia, but Russia would not be selling them. This appears to be another inside job that the NSA is scared to death to admit. If that is true, then the place that knows more than Google is vulnerable and that means anyone’s personal phone calls, texts, and emails just may be available if the price is right.

The threat of a lack of security around an agency that has everything is really disturbing. I am surprised nobody has filed a Freedom of Information Request for the missing Hillary emails since they have to have everything, including her text messages and phone calls.

A number of emails have come in asking if we are advising the government since they are now enlisting firms to research a rise in civil unrest. The answer is no! Nevertheless, everyone knows of the accuracy of our computer systems and our cycle of war models. It was the CIA that, after all, came to us demanding I create the system for them in Washington after the model predicted the fall of the Russian monetary system in 1998. I declined. I did offer to run any study for them on our systems. I was told that was not acceptable for they had to “own it.” I said no way. I believe their position was they did not want anyone else to possess the forecasts. I have also been asked if I am afraid of government. I responded that the only way they will ever get access to what our system forecasts is to leave me alone and read our services. So, this is the Mexican standoff as they say. We agree to disagree.

True, the Pentagon is now funding universities to try to model the dynamics of the rise in war. Sure, they are trying to copy what we have achieved. They are the government after all. They know I cannot be threatened for I would rather be dead than held as some slave. They are attempting to model large-scale civil unrest, across the world no less. You can guess where they got that idea. Programmers have told me that the government has contracted programmers to try to program what we have accomplished with Socrates. Good luck. It takes more time than money can buy. No programmer could ever figure this out, especially if they do not understand HOW cycles function at the core. This is not some simpleton program.

I have been told that slander and imitation are the ultimate level of flattery. When the model predicted the peak in the real estate bubble to the day in February 2007, they were calling it “Armstrong’s revenge.” They thought locking me up would somehow stop the model from working so they kept me in contempt of court, using a statute 28 USC §1826, which says the maximum time anyone can be held in civil contempt is 18 months. They kept rolling it every 18 months to pretend they were obeying the law. I was finally released after 7 years merely because I got into the Supreme Court and they had no choice but to release me or suffer an international disgrace.

Just after the model forecast the peak in 2007 to the day, once again, I was hauled into court and Judge Keenan who tried to discredit our model by claiming I stole the idea of pi from a movie by that name. This transcript above shows how they deliberately lie to try to cover-up anything. Accusing me of taking the idea from a movie named “Pi”, which did not come out until 1998, illustrates how fundamentally dishonest these people really are. They think they can just say anything and the world will believe them no matter what. They are incapable of telling the truth and that doesn’t bother them in the slightest.

Think of the worse kid in high school who enjoyed beating up people or stealing what they had. Look them up. More likely than not, they ended up in law enforcement. This transcript is the example of absolute corruption beyond belief. They could care less that you can simply Google when the movie came out. They declare something and to them that makes it true. This was all about trying to discredit a model that forecast the crash from 2007 into 2009. Rather than helping society, they seek only to destroy it.

The turning point 2007.1589 picked the very day of the high in the Shiller Real Estate Index and was published in 1979 — 20 years before the movie. However, it also marked the very day Goldman Sachs sold its infamous ABACUS 2007-AC1 $2 billion Synthetic CDO. They timed that perfectly to the very day of our model.

The court tried to discredit the model. That illustrated they were worried its forecast was coming true. You can bet they analyze our every word. These people have no morals and think they can just force society to be economic slaves forever. Nobody has ever beaten this game in history. Time is on my side, not theirs.

Colin Powell has long kept quiet about Hillary. He has at last broken his silence about his alleged involvement in the Hillary Clinton email scandal. He has bluntly came out at said that Hillary’s team is falsely trying to blame him. When Hillary reportedly told investigators that former Secretary of State Powell had advised her to use a personal email account at a private dinner trying to shift the blame to him. Powell has now boldly stated that he had no recollection of such a conversation Indeed, Hillary’s vain attempt to blame Powell when she is the lawyer, fails with the timeline test. Hillary was already using her personal email for a year before he ever mentioned anything about how he handled emails in a memo. Powell did not set up his own server. He simply used a personal public email for personal emails only. All official correspondence was always through the State Department. Once more, this show how slick Hillary is and what a liar she truly is behind that fake smile.

The Nikkei (cash market) had a lot to recover having just returned but recover it did. The early bounce was pulled back then the Friday afternoon recovery took over and we closed just off the days highs (+1.2%). China’s Industrial Output was expected at 6.1% but came in a little short at 6% which did provide a bit of a pause but happily was just short lived. Retail Sales was also a little under the forecast (10.2 v’s 10.5) but that too was quickly dismissed. Having pushed through the 3k level late yesterday we eventually saw a happy run into the weekend to close +1.6% up on the day. The Hang Seng was also strong closing with the Nikkei around 1% better.

Much of the excitement did not really occur until we saw the lunchtime data in the States. Europe had responded to the very positive Asian session but really was looking for confirmation in the form of positive data. However, what we saw was far from what the equity markets were looking for and all stocks came off their days highs. We did manage a rather neutral close but were searching for positive guidance.

US data disappointed not just the states but many markets. European currencies bounced, Gold, Oil and commodities responded but these conditions had a limited life span and by US close stocks were back to almost unchanged and we even saw the NASDAQ close higher on the day. Gold was interesting to watch after the numbers because having seen a $15 rally around $1360 but end of week selling saw us testing the $1333 level at the close. Timing needs to be watched next week as any further weakness could well accelerate.

Having been under pressure ahead of the US numbers, US Bonds recovered all and then made ground upon release. Again, we saw small flattening in 2/10’s with 10’s closing -5bp at 1.51% (curve closed +80bp). The afternoon was a rather tedious affair with little or no volume trading in peripherals. German Bund closed -0.11% (-1bp), Italy 1.04% (-2bp), Greece 7.99% (-2bp), Turkey 9.39%, Portugal 2.67% (-4bp) and UK 0.51% (-2bp).

The DXY did suffer upon data release but really masked the large movers. The JPY traded from 102+ to sub 101 (gaining 0.75%) whilst GBP lost its initial bounce to close 129.00 (-0.4%). We will not hear from the FED (directly) until the end of August but we will see FED July Minutes next Wednesday. We have to wait until next Tuesday for some meaningful data from Europe and the States.. Summer trading really was the name of the game this week.

The EU has become the modern Byzantine government. To create 2600 works regulating just cabbage is excessive. The saying that God created the 10 Commandments and Man has created tens of billions of regulations trying to restate the same thing, is simply Byzantine.

Forgot to put the link on that Cabbage Regulation Story

QUESTION:

Hi Marty,

I read your post on gold today. After crash and burn, all those that are holding paper money will take a haircut.  So, irregardless of how high physical gold goes per ounce, at least it is a tangible asset, as opposed to what (toilet) paper money may be worth…am I seeing it correctly?

Thank you!

k

ANSWER: Correct but paper money will be swapped. It will not become toilet paper for then you have all out revolution and the heads of officials typically are lost during such events adorning the spikes for display. The constitution promised they would honor the debts of the former government, the Continental Congress. But they never said when. For those who chose not to wait, they swapped it 100:1 and those who believed they would be made whole by the politicians, well they received nothing but political promises. You can buy Continental Currency from coin dealers orEbay. That is proof they defaulted on those promises.

Trying to put a number of a value in terms of dollars is really irrelevant if in the end we are looking at a monetary collapse and a new system. Whatever the dollar will be worth in purchasing power at that moment in time will be masked by the swapped to these new electronic units of currency that will be worth far more. It’s simply how things are always done moving from one currency to the next. I knew a German who had bought all the old copper and nickel coins for scrap. There was a shortage of metal so the coins were deemed legal tender expressed in the new currency. He became famously rich over night. The tangible things survive such transitions.

The issue is purchasing power. They say one ounce of gold would buy a man’s suit in the 1920s. It still does today. Forget the $50,000+ nonsense. Even making such stupid statements are implicitly saying the dollar survives. How can you value something in a currency that would no longer exist? Welcome the new world monetary system when government gets its ounce of flesh out of everyone clinging to power as it slips from their grasp.

The German government is now advising its people to stockpile food for 10 days. This advice should be heeded throughout Europe and even in the United States. Here are the storage tips from the Red Cross. This is now time to begin to do this. Those who have the basement space, may also want to consider setting up your indoor farm. It’s not a bad idea. Besides the risk of civil unrest disrupting food supplies, we are headed into a serious downturn in temperature. During such sharp cold spells, food rises in price and declines in supply. Great famines coincide with war and plagues. But there are droughts and ice age type declines which also have reduced food supplies. Some famines have sparked great migrations such as the Irish potato famine 1845-1849. Sweden and Finland saw 15% of their population die in the 1866–1868 famine. The Ukrainian Famine of 1932–1933 caused by the Russians killed about 8 million for which the Ukrainians will never forget.

Pythagoras’ Theorem: 24 words

Lord’s Prayer: 66 words

Archimedes’ Principle: 67 words

10 Commandments: 170 words

Gettysburg Address: 286 words

US Declaration of Independence: 1,300 words

US Constitution and all 27 Amendments: 7,818 words

EU Regulations on Sale of only Cabbages: 2,600 words

This is what the term Byzantine means

There is the greatest conspiracy of all time. The corrupt politicians have completely corrupted mainstream media. They even organized the overthrow at Fox News because that was the only station they could not take over. Everything from CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, and countless newspapers are all out for a coronation of Hillary at the complete expense of the free press. We may never again be able to trust anything they say or print and this is becoming so blatant and in your face, even the New York Post, long on the fringe, has come out with the bold headline: American journalism is collapsing before our eyes. They are too greedy for power to know what they do, but that is no excuse for the treason they are carrying out against the American people.

Indeed, this is part of the end times. Government is turning against the people and the free press, which was suppose to defend our liberty, has join the conspiracy and are now on the side of government against the people. That peak in the Economic Confidence Model 2015.75 was the peak in government. They now know they are losing control and in the process, they will burn down the barn to get a mouse that roars. There is no future left as we knew it. There will be no freedom or liberty to leave our children and grandchildren. The slide downward from 2015.75 will be marked with more Draconian measures and nothing but lies. They are fighting now to retain control and the press has joined forces with government and the neoconservatives who want only to wage war and engage in their dream of nation building, which has been a complete failure. They do not care about the people. We are the great unwashed in whose blood they feast and wash their hands all for the glory of power.

They are bringing back meaning to Patrick Henry’s most famous quote: “give me liberty or give me death.” You do reach a point when they just go too far. They can threaten to kill you. If you reach that point when you can say go ahead because living as your slave is a fate worse than death, you disarm them. There is nothing else they can threaten you with. Then, and only then, do you comprehend the deep meaning behind the words of Patrick Henry.

It is a sad day for journalism. It has never been so manipulative than it is today. This is truly the end of everything that made America the beacon of liberty for the world. It is just a hollow shell. To think that the parents of these journalists worked hard to make sure their children had a better life. They have disgraced their parents. They have condemned their own children. They have made a mockery of our liberty, and they are working hard to further the oligarchy, which always destroys every Republic known to history. When the rule of law collapses as we have seen with Hillary, and the press becomes the pawn of the establishment, all that is left is the monetary system collapse. Game over. Turn out the lights.  It becomes only the next step in a series of steps down that road of destruction why no Republic has ever survived. The circle of life of government is nearly complete. We must simply crash and burn with hope to survive and rise from the ashes with a different system altogether. To quote Patrick Henry:

I know of no way of judging the future but by the past