A quiet day in Asia is a bit of a relief after all the recent fun and games and that is what we saw today with global markets having behaved themselves and a FED that was more than compensated for, there was really not much to play on and so we saw one of the quietest session in a while. The Hang Seng was the star performer, closing +1% on the day with Shanghai and Nikkei almost unchanged.

In Europe, we saw a bit of a bounce having seen markets trading lower for days now. All core indices closed higher with DAX, CAC, FTSE and IBEX all around 1% higher on the day. After we heard the minutes of a cautious FED last night markets gained a little confidence if only for a short time. Stories of yet more Property Fund closures it really was to be expected that the ratings agencies are revising their outlooks for the UK banks. Barclays, RBS and Lloyds all saw their ratings outlook cut to negative from stable by S+P. Late in the afternoon we heard that Michael Gove is eliminated for the leadership of the Conservative party which also hit sterling. ADP numbers came in 172k against expectations of 159k. So tomorrows NFP report will be closely watched.

US session opened in good shape but has seemed to struggle as oil sold 0ff. Crude lost an additional 4.5% today after similar losses yesterday. Eventually, the NASDAQ did manage a positive close whilst the DOW and broader S+P saw small losses.

The bond markets are preparing for tomorrow after even they had a quiet trading day. The US curve saw a parallel 2bp shift with 10’s drifting to close 1.39% after the slightly better ADP. In Europe Bunds were little changed as the demand for supposed safety continues! 10yr Bund closed -0.17% closing the US/Germany spread at +156bp. Italy closed unchanged at 1.24%, Greece 7.75% (-1bp), Turkey 8.88%, Portugal 3.04% (+1bp) and UK Gilt 10yr at 0.77%.

It really is rather outrageous that the Democrats put forth Hillary as their candidate. They should have put in Joe Biden. Now both the Senate and the State Department are beginning investigations and Hillary will not be as protected as she was by Comey at the direction of Obama.

Surely, the Democrats could have found someone better than Hillary. In the Republican camp, at least there were 17 people who tried to beat Trump. In the Democratic camp, it was only Bernie, and it appears the vote was stolen from him in New Jersey and California. It was strange to see Bernie’s rallies with thousands of people attending; Hillary was lucky to get a couple hundred. Strange, how nobody seems to question how Hillary won when few people showed up at her rallies.

The student loan situation has gone from bad to worse. Marcia DeOliveira-Longinetti’s son was killed, and after death, the remaining balance of his federal student loans were written off, but not by the state of  New Jersey. The state told his mother, “Your request does not meet the threshold for loan forgiveness.”

The press treats Hillary as a coronation and refuses to ask her any questions regarding student loans when it was the Clintons who gave the bankers their dream – student loans are non-dischargeable in bankruptcy. What they will also not tell the American public, that a parent co-signing for a student means they too cannot discharge that debt ever in bankruptcy. The bankers got the ultimate dream. The Clintons agreed the students had no collateral so they made the loans non-discharageable. However, insisting a parent co-signs for the loan means it is now collateralized and the entire student loan problem turns into a massive crisis. Thank you Hillary.

On top of that, the press will not tell the truth that the Clintons signed the mandatory minimums that put more blacks in prison than any president in history. They are the administration that set the police loose on the black community. Now, there are 65 million people who have been charged for something. The total population of the United States is 321,418,820, of which 77.1% are over 18. That means that 26.3% of the adult population nationally has been charged with some crime. Either Americans are the most criminal group, or the rule of law is completely broke.

The Federal government is arming every agency from the IRS to the State Department for domestic purposes. This is clearly a response to what they know is coming. There is no question that they are preparing for an uprising. They know that socialism is collapsing. Rather than reform the political economy, they are digging in their heels and getting ready to fight the civilian population. Many are starting to investigate this very unusual trend. This is very alarming. They are watching Europe and know any trend that starts there, always come here — not just fashion.

The non-prosecution of police is resulting in widespread civil unrest where merely people in uniform are seen not as “pigs” as in the 1960s, but the enemy no different from an invading army. Now 5 officers are dead and 6 were injured in a Dallas protest. The police involved in Baton Rouge had four previous “use of force” complaints filed against them. As long as police are not prosecuted, then the bad ones will risk the lives of all because they will all be seen as the enemy. It is time to beginning prosecuting police who act abusively or we will risk civil war.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; What is your take on the Supreme Court corruption ruling?

ANSWER: Actually, under strict construction, I would have to agree with this one.  The statute actually provides that when a public official is paid to influence an “official act” in exchange for cash, loans, or gifts then it becomes a crime. However, an “official act” is defined as “any decision or action on any question, matter, cause, suit, proceeding or controversy, which may at any time be pending, or which may by law be brought before any public official, in such official’s official capacity, or in such official’s place of trust or profit.” (18 U. S. C. §201(a)(3))

Therefore, the “official act” must be a decision or action on a “question, matter, cause, suit, proceeding or controversy, which may at any time be pending.” If nothing is actually pending, then it is not within the strict letter of the statute. The Supreme Court held that “Setting up a meeting, talking to another official, or organizing an event—without more—does not fit that definition of ‘official act.”

In contrast, the links between donations to the Clinton Foundation and arms deals would fall within the plain language of the statute. She committed an “official act” by approving an arms deal with a donation to the Clinton Foundation. That would fit, but mere introductions do not. Under that loose definition, virtually everyone in Congress would be in jail. Not a bad idea in many cases, but it would be a stretch.

Former District Attorney for the State of South Carolina and a Federal Prosecutor, Trey Gowdy, tears James Comey apart illustrating how he has simply refused to indict Hillary when there is far more evidence what she did was scathingly criminal. But the Democrats will cover it all up far worse than the Nixon cover-up of Watergate. This actually involves complete incompetence of Hillary to hold any office involving the security of the nation. In fact, now Paul Ryan has petitioned the intelligence agencies NOT to provide security information to Hillary during the campaign. Hillary has no credibility and never has. Now the State Department is reopening the probe into Hillary’s emails since Comey refuses to indict. They will look at sanctioning Hillary and her staff. This is a scandal beyond belief for it involves the very security of the United States as well as the entire western society. Hillary has place the West in danger and has the audacity to run for president. Worst yet, the Democrats justify her actions so effectively this means every government employee can refuse to use secure government emails and it is not a crime.

Private Blog Update – Gold breaks through 1362

QUESTION:

Dear Martin,

 I have been following your projection of numbers and time, which is a serious tool to use as guidance.

The question that keeps coming up is why are these numbers so important with weeks, months, quarters and years closings that can forecast the coming trend?

 Everything in the normal world wouldn’t pay any attention to this.

Any other species wouldn’t know if it is Friday or Christmas for that matter.

Kind regards,

PM

ANSWER: Time is totally arbitrary. A week is only a week because we say it is. That also means you can do with it as you desire. Everything is fractal. That is the importance.

 The vast majority of forecasting is always wrong. Those who get it right sometimes cannot do so consistently. This is because, as humans, we are all subject to emotions and biases.

 Dividing time also allows one to divide the movement and distinguish between “noise” and real changes in trend. You can rally sharply, but does that mean you will break out? Such things can only be determined by looking at longer time frames. You can see the trend at different levels.

 Calendars are whatever we say they are. There have been many. The date system we use in our computer is our own proprietary scalar date system. That is then translated back into a calendar we are familiar with.

 2015.75 = 365 days x .75 and that becomes October 1.

We can recreate time. We can create a yearly reversal every day, or weekly, monthly, and quarterly. It takes a lot of computer power to do all this and monitor everything, globally, on all time levels. No human could possibly manage all of this on a manual basis. We can recognize ourselves in a reflection. Other species fight their own shadow.

We must face the fact that we are in a slowing global economy and governments simply have their fingers crossed in hopes this nightmare just corrects itself. There is a massive slowing of real income in Europe and the OECD has commented that this is creating a serious political problem for governments moving forward. Central banks cannot stimulate, because at the same time, we face a major crisis in government where their pensions are crowding out all private sector growth. The aftereffects of BREXIT, the USA presidential election, and the elections in France and then Germany, are just the tip of the Iceberg, so to speak, because we face a future that is anything but stable. Interestingly, now six countries are looking at potential referendums in addition to the potential resurrection of Scottish independence as well as Ireland. The response of Brussels has been to usher in revisions to cut off any right for other countries to hold referendums to leave the EU.