COMMENT: Mr Armstrong, I have been the ultimate skeptic for so many claimed analysts give an opinion and that is really it. I have kept track of your arrays on the weekly Dow. I understand why the government wanted your model. Your model really works. Your array posted last October 16 picked the November high amazingly. The market collapsed for the next 11 weeks.

The next array you published on November 15, showed the main targets as the weeks of December 7 and January 11. The week of January 11 was the lowest closing and the next week of January 18 produced the lowest low intraday.

On February 14, you published an array showing the week of February 22 followed by the weeks of  March 7 and 21 would be turning points.

Then on March 11 you published an array showing the weeks of March 28, April 11 and beyond that were April 25 and May 16.

About a week later on Mach 18, you published another array which showed the week of April 11th grew stronger.

On April 1, you then published an array showing the week of April 25, which suddenly became a stronger target than the week of April 11. I assume as you move closer more hits begin to form. The target dates seem to remain constant but the intensity changes.

Then on April 6, the target week of April 25 becomes major. In the distance, the week of May 30 starts to appear. You also said that the top row in the array provides the main turning points marked by the highest and the lowest bars. This meant the two lowest bars are April 18 and May 23. So it is curious how the intraday high comes between the two big bars.

On April 13, you then published the next array showed still the April 18 lowest bar and a huge jump in the week of May 9 over and above the week of April 25. This did not appear as a target in the previous array at all. Then the week of May 16 showed up as a Panic cycle since the March 11 array. Last week made a new low but then closed above your weekly reversal at 17434 perhaps meaning that is the low. The week of the 9th was a reaction high exceeding the high of the previous week.

On May 6 you posted the next array, which showed the week of May 9 shifting to the 16, and suddenly the week of May 30 jumps up. This target at least began to appear weeks before. The week of the 16 turns into a Directional Change and the panic move off to June 6. Now it appears as we go into the BREXIT vote, volatility will rise and you have three Directional Changes in a row.

I think I am getting the hang of these arrays. It will be very helpful for the computer to explain this as it is going forward. Just a suggestion.

Thank you

REPLY: It looks like you did a good job on your interpretation. If the market is moving in wide swings, it may impact the targets moving forward. Keep in mind that the top bar is not forecasting on a static basis. The plotting will be to scale for each array. So the biggest bar is just the biggest within that scope. So let’s say 5/30 is 20 hits. That is the biggest within that 12-week time frame. Now as we move forward, let’s say 06/27 becomes 35 hits. The number of hits for the 30th does not decline. June 27 has more hits than May 30, which shows that it will have a higher bar that becomes the reference point against which to scale.

You have to keep in mind that accusing me of manipulating the world economy shows that those in government and the bankers were trying to do just that. They lost so the conclusion becomes I must have more people then them. The proposition is rather absurd. Nonetheless, this also reflects that they are not willing to accept the possibility that they cannot control the world. They blame me rather than accept the fact that perhaps there are bigger things in life than just them.

These arrays PROVE beyond a shadow of a doubt that the markets have a hidden order to them. This is why “opinion” fails and nobody can forecast from such a perspective. I can tell you that in gold, from the 2011 high the low could form as soon as a two-year decline, which would make that 2013. But, 2012 made the highest closing, so it could be measured from that making it 2014. The next would be three years, making it 2014 and 2015. Beyond that, it would be five years and that makes it 2016 or 2017.  I can express my “opinion” as to which of the three potentials it might be, but it becomes the combination of time and price that confirms which one. My “opinion” when I say “I think” cannot be a forecast, only the computer can do that. Nobody’s opinion can ever be consistent.

As for the Dow, the same is true. Yes, the maximum for a reaction from the 2009 low would be three years. Even the 1929 Crash was 34 months between 1929 and 1932. Because the Dow got it over within the three-year time frame, it was off to new highs. Compare that to the Nikkei. Push beyond that three-year limit and it becomes a prolonged bear market.

So the Dow will double. That much is inevitable. The question is only time. You have the idiots who try to criticize because they have been wrong (typically in gold) so they try to say I was wrong and the Dow did not double, which somehow means I will be wrong on gold. Rather than becoming a student of markets, they prefer to cling to their vision no matter how wrong. The Dow bottomed in 2009 at 6469.95 and double that would be 12,939.9. I think we did that. Our three targets have been given countless times – 18500, 23000, and the 30000–40000. Well we reached the first level. We will breakout to the next. Then we will see about the third. Keep in mind that we have PRICE that must be met with the TIME. So we know we move to the next if we have not met the timing objective.

Yes, the computer will articulate this. We are working on the verbiage at this time.

The propaganda to keep Britain in the EU is highly dangerous and an outright fraud upon the British people. On June 23, the people of Britain will decide whether to exit (BREXIT) the European Union. The outcome of this historic vote will determine Britain’s future. This is an incredibly important vote for it will determine the fate of, not just Britain, but Europe as a whole.

This special “BREXIT” report answers many of the questions surrounding the vote and explores the historical patterns that have a tremendous impact on where we go from here.

This vote will decide the fate of Britain and Europe, and will also directly impact the trend in global currencies that will impact the United States and the fate of the dollar.

The report covers Britain and its 309.6-year cycle as well as provide the forecast for the British pound and the euro/pound cross rates.

Purchase the “Brexit” report — $250

A fertilizer producer in north China defaulted on bond payments, which is a positive aspect as the state governments are not so eager to bail out failed companies. This will be a positive step forward in transforming China into a major capital market. For now, it is still not ready for prime time.

Of course, many are touting this as a reason to buy gold. It seems they will distort anything to justify a buy. Gold will rise on a sustainable basis when the GENERAL PUBLIC sees that government is in trouble, not companies per se. That is starting to materialize in Europe and the election is exposing the corruption in the United States as “super delegates” hand Hillary the nomination, nullifying the vote of the people. You cannot pretend this is a democracy and then do everything in your power to make sure the people choose nothing. Europe is the same structure. Politicians do not want to be accountable — just dictators.

That is the key to the future. When everyone wakes up and simply says, “OMG. This is a joke!” The 2016 election may lead to a real political revolution by 2018 that could overturn Congress entirely.

We made the front page of Reddit today. This is bringing in more than 3000 visitors to the site per minute. Our systems did not crash, but the site did slow down. Our load balancer took a little time to spin into action. We will expand the site again. With the elections coming, our traffic has been exploding.

The Nikkei could not hold the late US rally and as the cash market opened the weakness returned from the opening, especially having just seen the weaker than expected Machinery Orders. Gaping lower, we did see a small bounce but not enough energy to look for a positive close. Eventually the index closed around 1% lower as we saw the JPY trade down to 106.25. Asian markets were quiet due to national holidays in Taiwan, Hong Kong and China. Late in the US session that selling has continued with the Nikkei down a further 0.5% whilst China 300 and Hang Seng futures decline only 0.2%.

In Europe, we heard from Mr Draghi speaking in Brussels who set the tone for the day. Stating that monetary policy alone is not enough he called again on central banks to play their part! Any further delays in Structural reforms could have a lasting consequences on the Eurozone overall. All core European markets traded heavy, ending with falls of around 1% across the board. There was a storey milling around the street that both Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse may need to raise additional cash. Shares were lower for both down 1.3% for DB and 2.3% for CS so not really too much to worry about but worth keeping an eye on the shares.

The US markets opened lower then spent the rest of the day recovering to close almost unchanged. The market remain focused on the BREXIT concerns and the closer we get to the June 23rd vote the more volatile these moves will become. Interesting that the VIX closed this evening at 14.4, marginally better than previous close but in a rising prices environment. Gold had another good day but remains with the broad range, last seen this evening at $1272.

US Treasuries took the additional 30yr well this evening and closed with daily gains. The 2/10 curve narrowed yet again closing at 91.5bp. German 10yr Bund traded down to 0.03% today closing the spread at +165bp. Italy 10yr closed 1.38% (-1bp), Greece 7.26% (+4bp), Turkey 9.37% (+8bp), Portugal 3.04% (u/c) and Gilt 10yr at 1.24% (-1bp).

Of course Bernie Sanders appears to have sold out emerging from a White House meeting with President Barack Obama vowing to work together with Hillary Clinton to defeat Donald Trump in November. Bernie would rather endorse a traitor who has sold her influence as Secretary of State just to save the Democratic Party. Obama assured Bernie, no doubt, that he would not allow Hillary to be indicted. And to further rig the game, the State Department refuses to release her emails until AFTER the election. But the actual date they gave was November 31st, 2016, which does not exist since November has only 30 days. Once she is president, no doubt they will vanish altogether.

It appears that Bernie is betraying all those who supported him. Hillary will raise $1 billion to buy the White House. That kind of money does not come from bankers without strings. Wall Street supports Hillary – not Trump. That says it all. How Bernie can just give up is amazing. What happened to his “revolution” will never be discussed.

Armstrong will be appearing in Britain on the Richie Allen Show today.

 

As the BREXIT vote nears, capital is starting to jockey for position. The euro has made an outside reversal far to the downside on a daily basis, and it is now likely that the week of May 30th will see the highest weekly closing at 11362. At the time of this posting, the euro has fallen to 11307 from a high of 11393.

We can see that we have a turning point next week ahead of BREXIT. The market normally moves in anticipation. A closing this week below 11386 will signal that we may press lower. The main support lies at 11170 and a closing for the week beneath that would warn of a retest of 107-108 area.

Private Blog Update

Britain is moving into an Ice Age and energy prices are rising, for the U.K. is as cold today as it was in December. This cold period has sent heating costs in Britain to their highest levels in six months.