COMMENT: Dear Mr Armstrong,

I have studied in Britain for a year as Erasmus (EU scholarship) student.

The English students that go and study in Sweden do not have pay tuition as EU members but  if they go and study like I did as Erasmus students for a year they still have to pay fees to their home university in Britain.

In Sweden people that have stayed in Sweden for 17 years are getting sent home to their home countries because people from the EU are supposed to get jobs before them. There are many stories about unmarried men from e.g. Iran who are speaking fluent Swedish, have worked most of the time in Sweden and that own a house have to go back to their home countries. There are also stories about that Sweden have become a tax haven with no wealth tax so people from all over EU are moving here without paying any tax getting free health care…

It is becoming like you wrote about extremists were right extremists and left extremists are on the same side against the EU.

When do think we will see liberal politicians that are against the EU get many votes?

If Britain will leave the EU I think that we will see an election in Sweden soon. In 2003 Sweden voted no to the Euro. In the EU election the following year Junilistan (liberals) a party against the Euro got many votes.

Yours sincerely,
J

REPLY: This is why they will rig the BREXIT vote. They cannot afford to let the British leave for it will set off a contagion. They know that. Sweden would vote to leave as well. They are getting the blunt end of the stick from the EU.

There is a very curious dynamic going on here. It is well known that there is animosity between the Clintons and Obama. Obama would easily order everyone to stand down with investigations and reports with respect to Hillary, but he has not. Now the Inspector General has delivered a scathing report on Hillary (see report; oig-report). The long-awaited report from the OIG State Department Inspector General, revealed that Hillary Clinton was being her own secret self to hide her dealing stating that she was expressing reluctance about using an official email account. This report was delivered to Capitol Hill. The report details how some employees who questioned the wisdom of the homegrown setup were simply told by Hillary to shut-up and stop asking questions. The audit even confirmed that there were apparent hacking attempts on her private server. The report blasts Hillary stating:

“At a minimum, Secretary Clinton should have surrendered all emails dealing with Department business before leaving government service and, because she did not do so, she did not comply with the Department’s policies that were implemented in accordance with the Federal Records Act.”

The Federal Records Act of 1950 came following the recommendations of the Hoover Commission (1947-49) dealing with all the corruption in government which took place contributing to the Great Depression. Ironically, in December 2014 the Presidential and Federal Records Act Amendments of 2014 was signed into law by President non other than Barack Obama himself. Hillary was Secretary of State between 2009 and 2013.  The time of this Amendment is very curious following Hillary leaving. This bipartisan act, which followed the 2011 President’s Memorandum on Managing Government Records, modernizes the Federal Records Act. On August 24, 2012, Obama signed a directive to the heads of the executive departments which would have included Hillary.Directive to Hillary 2012 m-12-18

The 2014 act expressly expands the definition of federal records to include electronic records (the first change to the definition of “Federal record” since the enactment of the act in 1950). The act also grants the Archivist of the United States the final determination as to what constitutes a Federal record; “authorizes the early transfer of permanent electronic federal and presidential records to the National Archives, while legal custody remains with the agency or the president”; “clarifies the responsibilities of federal government officials when using non-government email systems”; and “empowers the National Archives to safeguard original and classified records from unauthorized removal.”

44 U.S.C. Chapter 31

§ 3101. Records management by agency heads; general duties

The head of each Federal agency shall make and preserve records containing adequate and proper documentation of the organization, functions, policies, decisions, procedures, and essential transactions of the agency and designed to furnish the information necessary to protect the legal and financial rights of the Government and of persons directly affected by the agency’s activities.

The question is can Hillary be prosecuted? The answer is yes if there was real “justice for all” and they say in the oath school children use to have to recite in school:

“I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands, one Nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.”

Given Hillary’s age, she had to say this in school when growing up. Obviously, there is no real “justice for all” and that is clearly propaganda for children. 18 U.S. Code § 2071 – Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally, which Hillary violated, carries a 3 year term of imprisonment and/or fine. Section B also states: “and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States.” This wording is very clear. but of course, Democrats would say that is Congress’s decision not the courts. A strict interpretation leaves no room for question. Hillary would be disqualified from holding any office. Will Obama actually enforce the law? If Trump keeps beating her in the polls, they may just pull this rabbit out of the hat. The rumor behind the curtain is that Obama is hedging his bets by allowing this OIG report to even be presented to Congress. If Hillary looks like a loser, well she may have real trouble ahead. Say hello to Joe Biden.

There is no question that Hillary is playing the “woman card.” Hillary Clinton will join the all-female cast of “Ghostbusters,” playing that women card to the hilt. Hollywood is the Mecca for liberal females and Democrats who worship a dogma before the big white “Hollywood” sign. They are just as terrible as the mainstream media in using their position to try to indoctrinate people without any practical understanding of the economics or the pervasive corruption Hillary represents. In Hollywood, people are disconnected from reality and living a dream, so it is no wonder why Hillary herself lives in a fantasy world. They live in Hollywood land and their unions are notoriously greedy and operate in a real, organized crime fashion.

Hillary and her supporters are still numb and will be “feeling the Bern” after the California primary on June 7. Bernie may not win California, but he will gather enough delegates to help push his agenda against the very corruption Hillary bathes in. The Hollywood crowd ignores that she left the White House broke, but has become a major millionaire who sells influence, such as ensuring Haiti gives her brother a gold mining contract to get aid from U.S. State Department. Trump is starting to lead, NOT because he is fantastic, but because politics as usual is so damn corrupt. The Democrats wanted to play the “woman card.” They are fighting the trend exactly as the career Republicans did. We are at a generational shift.

The biggest concern from the Hollywood crowd is not that Sanders could win California. What will they do if that were to happen? Bernie is getting the youth; Hillary is not. She is politics as usual and the best thing the Democrats can pray for, as they kneel before the big white Hollywood sign in Los Angeles, is that Hillary is indicted and Joe Biden comes to the rescue. That is their only shot at this point.

This is what happens when politicians think they are smarter than the great unwashed whom they rule over. They lack common sense on every possible level. The rise of third parties is a reality and our computer has been spot on with this forecast for 2016. It accomplished this forecast by simply doing what government does not seem capable of doing — correlating political trends with economic trends.

Socialism is the lite version of communism where you let the people own property and freely buy and sell homes instead of dictating where they live, but you tax the hell out of them for the privilege of existing. They pretend to be all noble for they are taking your money for some greater good, but somehow there is a sea of hands in the pot belonging to government employees with pensions that often include free healthcare for life that nobody in the real world can possibly get.

Would you give to a pretend charity such as Hillary’s that actually keeps 88% for itself and precious little is actually given to needy people? Then Hillary takes a tax deduction claiming 10% of her income she donates to herself — tax-free of course. Now she is worth more than any other Republican who ran for office except Trump. Hillary Clinton’s campaign emphasized her charitable giving in a press statement, actually claiming she donated “10.8 percent” of her income in 2014. Politics reek of corruption. We deserve what we get for being stupid enough to put up with this stuff, regardless of whether we are talking about Democrats or Republicans. When it comes to money, there is no difference. Both parties always look to grab whatever you have for themselves, claiming they are helping the poor. The polls show that 57% of Americans believe Hillary is dishonest.

So what’s going on should be of no surprise. There are many separatist movements building throughout Europe all because government has become corrupt. There are separatist movements in Hawaii, Texas, and Vermont in the USA for starters. This is ALL predictable. All you have to do is let the data speak for itself — no water or hot air needs to be added.

Asian markets followed the mixed US session with a calm steady reply resulting in gains for the Hang Seng (+0.9%) and the Nikkei edging better (+0.4%) whilst the Shanghai closed small lower. G7 leaders stated that a vote for the UK to leave the European Union it would be a serious global concern. Ahead of the long weekend and Janette Yellen’s speech it really is no surprise we saw a rather quiet steady session. We are seeing oil retreat from the $50 level in early European trading but dealers await US numbers data. JPY remains at recent 110 level.

A very quiet opening for Europe following-on from Asia keeping with many keeping a low profile. Both gold and oil continue to retreat from yesterdays highs as we approach the long weekend, month end and Janette Yellen’s speech.

US Q1 GDP +0.8% did not really provide too much of an incentive and left many with questions open. Fed member – Bullard, said ahead of Yellen that the market is reading the minutes correctly but still the market was unsure in which direction to play. To late for Europe but eventually we heard and the consensus is another interest rate increase in the coming months. Even upon the news the market was undecided and it was only Gold and the USD that actually made their moves (Gold lower USD higher). By the close of what turned out to be a fairly quiet session all indices were positive ahead of the three day weekend. Next time we hear from JY will be June 6th by which time they would have seen employment data and ISM figures.

Treasuries have done relatively well this week having seen $88bn of supply this week. The theme continues to be curve flattening but that should not be a surprise by now. The front end worries as rate increases appear while the long end still thinks 1.85% for 10’s is an awesome return when you compare 15bp in Europe and with a declining currency (Euro lost 0.75% today).
US 2’s closed this evening at 0.91% (+4bp), 10’s closed 1.85%. Curve last at +94bp. German 10’s closed 0.135% (-1bp), Italy 1.35%, Greece 7.07%, Turkey 9.74%, Portugal 3.01% and UK Gilt 10yr at 1.43%.

Gold fell like a stone stopping at 1209 just $3 above our critical support. Nonetheless, it did elect a Weekly Bearish at 1225. Next week becomes critical. It is a do or die event. Gold has fulfilled our Panic Cycle target for May making a new high above April and penetrating the April low. Technically, this is extremely bearish.

We will have the BREXIT report out next week. This is incredibly important for the fate of Europe hangs in the balance. Politicians are only interested in saving their own jobs. They do not care about the people and the markets reflect this arrogance.

Nobody has seen a chart of the Euro v British Pound since the floating rate system began. We had to take the formula used and recreate it in time. You cannot use the ECU because the pound was included. This shows the dramatic high the Euro made against the pound in 1985. Even during the rally of 2008 when the Euro reached $1.60 on the greenback, it looks like a minor blip on this chart against the pound sterling. In 2015,  the Euro fell to .6937 against the pound and then rallied to close at .73750. We have a Yearly Bearish Reversal at .73450 which it avoided like many other markets for year-end 2015. If we elect this Yearly Bearish Reversal, this is warning new lows even against the British pound.

We are standing at the edge of a cliff in the middle of an ice age where government is trying to control the media, polls, rate agencies, you name it, all to try to manipulate society to serve their own goals. The bureaucracy today would easily start a war to retain power. That is what they do. We are the great unwashed and collateral damage is part of life for them. We can see a possible bright future if we can really reform government. But they will never surrender willingly. We have to crash and burn to reach the other side,

Everything from gold and oil to the Dow and the euro are all trying to alert us there is something brewing here as we stand at the edge in the middle of nowhere. It is time to wake up before it is too late. We have to see the world markets are all connected and screaming at us, but the majority only focus on one or two markets and never see the wildcard coming from the other side.

The markets are in turmoil. Gold has plunged again trading down trying to flirt with 1206. If we close below 1206 today, then get prepared for a test of 1174 which is the next Monthly Bearish beyond 1240. If we get this signal today, it begins to look like we will break 1000. Failing to exceed last year’s high keeps it on track where we have the potential for the low in 2016. Looks like we will shake the diehards out of the tree.

Venezuela had the greatest oil reserves of any country. The country was ruled for 14 years with the iron fist of Hugo Chavez. Then anti-capitalism wiped out the country and sent it into hyperinflation. “Socialism fails when you run out of other people’s money,” as Margaret Thatcher said. It is human nature for people to work less if the state is robbing them. What is the point of producing if the state just takes it away? Every socialist system has sent capital fleeing and caused investment to decline, yet politicians never see this. They just assume everyone will continue to work and pay whatever they demand in taxes. Venezuela is in a meltdown and people are starving.

As an employer, if workers were always confrontational, why would I desire to be in such a position? Eventually you quit, fire them all, and contract. The union workers in France kidnapped the head of Goodyear and his family and demanded a greater payout. Is it any wonder why Goodyear closed in France? Who would want to run such a company if they were always in an adversarial position with employees? If there is no team, there is no business. This is what socialism destroys. There is no teamwork; instead, it turns everything into an adversarial confrontation.

COMMENT: it is just chaos by politicians destroying the future. cashless society …how did u see this just amazing.I never thought it is coming to india as indians believed in hard MONEY sir.
thank you for your knowledge i think in future u should create an AI to help the people show the path. Coz there is no other way to see this except CYCLES.

We end up making same mistake over and over again.

REPLY: All governments talk. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now saying that a cashless society will end black money. He is on par with the rest of the political world. The prospect of a cashless society was discussed at the last G20 meeting. They want to eliminate cash worldwide and shut down tax havens. When you have actually worked behind the curtain, you come to realize how things really work. Those who make up conspiracy theories are usually biased. For decades, I have been told in meetings with many governments around the world that IF PEOPLE PAID THEIR TAXES THEY WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RUNNING SOCIETY. This has been told to be so many times; it is the prayer they say at the foot of their bed before they go to sleep every night.

There really is nothing new from what they are doing now and the fall of the Roman Empire. The human emotions are the same. This is the ONLY reason I am doing what I am doing. If I acted only for myself, I would run to an island and trade from the beach. But I realize that government is like water in a bathtub. There will be no place to hide. History teaches us that. So the question becomes, how fast will this be over? I follow our models. Once the plug is pulled, everything will go down the drain very rapidly. We spend tens of millions of dollars recreating the world monetary system to answer the question: how fast do governments die?

Look at this chart of the fall of the Roman monetary system. The Persians captured Valerian I in 260 AD. His son Gallienus took over and the economy went into a massive wave of deflation after the people came to the realization that they were vulnerable and began to hoard money. As people hoard, as they are doing right now on a personal, corporate, and bank level (see Fed excess reserves), the economy turns down and that results in less tax revenue. Before, they debased the money for that was the means to increase the money supply to meet expenses. The bottom in the debasement unfolded in 268 AD. So while Rome lasted over 1,000 years, its monetary system collapsed in just 8.6 years. That was without internet, radio, or TV for communication.

Those in power really do see us as the great unwashed who are clueless and hopeless without them. They fight against the invisible hand all the time, and they want to rule the world. I have met with many heads of state over the years. They all know about our computer. They always seem to want to know what it is saying. It is not that they follow it, but rather they call to keep an ear to the ground to see who is winning this eternal contest between the rulers and the great unwashed.