The Dutch are destroying the last vestiges of our liberty under the pretense of protecting it. They are putting a right-wing Dutch politician named Geert Wilders on trial for what they call inciting hatred and discrimination against the Dutch Moroccan minority. This is a legal contest that will destroy civilization itself and unravel everything we once held fundamental to freedom. Wilders argued that calling Morrocans “scum” is protected by his right to freedom of speech. The government prosecutors are looking, as always, to advance their careers no matter what the cost to society is.“Freedom of expression is not absolute, it is paired with obligations and responsibilities, the responsibility not to set groups of people against each other,” declared lead prosecutor Wouter Bos.

This legal position is unbelievable. Acting out some physical harm is one thing. To call someone a name is a basic human interaction that starts from the school yard all the way up. The prosecutors want to be famous. Well, they will go down in history as the team that pulled the foundation stone out and the whole thing collapsed. This is the core of communism. Children under communism were raised to believe that the STATE was their parent, and if their biological parent said anything against the STATE they should be reported. Without freedom of expression, nothing else can exist. There cannot be any truth for to say what you think becomes a crime. It is time that governments have simply gone way too far. They should just take everything we have, hand out a daily sack of beans, rags for clothes, and get it over with. I suppose they could imprison Trump for life with thought crimes.

This is happening all over Europe. The “refugee” crisis is completely out of control. The attempt by Brussels to pretend this is not happening is just insane.

QUESTION: 

It seems successful trading/investing/forecasting systems work only when used by a few. When these same systems get adopted by more and more users their effectiveness diminishes to a point where they no longer work. Do you agree with this, and if yes do you think as your forecasts become more well known and applied they too would lose their effectiveness?

A

ANSWER: No. Systems fail because of a lack of historical data testing. For example, Black-Scholes failed and created the Long-Term Capital Management crisis in 1998 because the data used for developing the model was only back to 1971.

Models that only function within the “noise” level will work for a period and then totally fail. If you do not test something on the Great Depression, how can you expect that model to even survive such an event? It is IMPOSSIBLE to change the long-term trend. Everything is connected. To really make gold suppressed, you have to do that to all commodities. Create deflation when the central banks are trying desperately to create inflation without success, and it goes on and on.

These excuses are clearly by people who look to justify their “theory” behind some trend. The markets move collectively. There are no single trends for the market will arbitrage it into its proper place within the general scheme. So models that become less efficient were improperly designed from the outset. We are all behind the collective movement and that includes the average person who does not even trade or invest. The rest focus on unemployment, GDP, trade, etc. and respond to what? To the trend of the whole.

So garbage in = garbage out

Armstrong 1985 with IBM XT

COMMENT: Fantastic examples in the final version (free-markets-are-natures-design). You need to keep connecting the dots until the person finally sees something, even if it isn’t the whole. Then again, can anyone see the whole? I find it fascinating that the computer gives you dates (dots), but you have to wait until you see how they connect… Demands humility.

REPLY: The markets definitely keep you humble. They are an endless teacher. The majority buy the high and sell the low simply because they react emotionally. It is like that heard of zebra I talk about. One zebra on the edge sees a lion and begins to run. The whole herd starts to run but never saw the lion. They run because every other zebra is running and thus really have no idea if he actually saw a lion or just thought he did. We are no different. Here’s one example:

“You are wrong. You will be embarrassed because gold will be over $2,000 in a matter of weeks. You cannot keep it down any more.”

Such emails do not even warrant the time to respond. They reflect a total lack of intelligence to separate from the herd and objectively look at what they are even saying. This is why the majority fuels the markets with human emotions that create the herd reaction. They just have to be wrong and that creates the cycle. The only thing I can do is hopefully show enough people the reality, not to simply make money, but to save society when the time comes for it is coming. You can see it everywhere from central banks desperately taking rates negative, to Trump rising the polls merely because the majority are becoming fed-up with the corruption in politics that is robbing them of their future.

The computer is an objective teacher. It has taught me much more than any human could have ever done.

This has been a long time coming. Porting over the old code to run on the internet has been like having to translate French to Japanese and then to English. Most of the original code was written in assembler because it had to be super fast. Speed and memory used to be critical back in the day, but modern programming does not really even teach assembler (machine language) anymore. High-level languages are written in C# or Basic and the compiler then translates that into machine code.

Translating this code back to modern-day language has produced some subtle differences. We have been working these for the past three months in an attempt to resolve these minor differences. Additionally, adding all sorts of stocks and ETFs has proven that there are substantial differences between their trading patterns and major markets. This has been a learning curve, for Socrates has been cataloging many new patterns that do not appear in major markets. For example, it is not uncommon for a thinly traded, low-priced stock to jump 20% up or down. That would be unheard of in something like the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Then there is the problem with data feeds. Just this past week, there was a bad print for the close in gold at 1229 when it should have been 1263. It was within the trading range of the day. It seems to have been a bad print for the same data, since checking two sources showed the same abnormal pattern whereas our third source was correct. Reconciling this one market is not that nuts. However, trying to triple check three sources for absolutely everything in the world, well that is really a challenge.

Nevertheless, we are moving to launch the Trader version before June. This week, we will be moving some of the work we have completed to the system for the Investor and preview sites. This has been a work in progress. The translation of code has been a mind-twisting game, to say the least. The voice still presents a problem over the internet that we are also working on.

So there will be some changes to the verbiage you will notice this week.

This came precisely on our target. This past week was the tipping point for Europe. The start of the real decline in the euro where mainstream capital begins to question whether negative rates can really reverse or stimulate the economy unfolds after 2016.202. This comes into play March 13/14, 2016. This is not my personal opinion. This is just the modeling. From this target onward, we will begin to see a crisis in confidence. Part of this will, no doubt, be the BREXIT vote in June. It is curious that the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán chose our precise target to effectively throw the gauntlet down against Brussels. He states bluntly, that there is no freedom in Europe if we cannot speak the truth that this is not a refugee crisis, but a migration crisis.

Glen Beck’s piece in the National Review has really pissed off a lot of people. He has taken the “elite” position and claims that Trump is not a conservative. “Politically orphaned by their party, conservatives were forced to either stay home or hold their noses and vote for a progressive Republican,” Beck wrote. Quite honestly, the entire “conservative” position is a bunch of crap, because they have not done anything that is “conservative.” They support every war and the NSA. They have done nothing to “reduce” government. The “conservatives” are just a part of the “special” elite class that looks down upon the rest of us as the great unwashed. Even John McCain voted to tax the internet.

The “conservatives” have bullshitted themselves into thinking they are somehow doing something other than lining their own pockets and protecting the bankers just like the Clintons. Beck says, “If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, there will once again be no opposition to an ever-expanding government. This is a crisis for conservatism.” It has been the crisis in conservatism that has given rise to Trump. David Boaz, vice president of the Cato Institute, claims Trump’s idea of the presidency is that he will ride in on a “white horse… fire the stupid people, hire the best people, and fix everything. He doesn’t talk about policy or working with Congress. He’s effectively vowing to be an American Mussolini, concentrating power in the Trump White House and governing by fiat. It’s a vision to make the last 16 years of executive abuse of power seem modest.” Why work with Congress when they do not work? Should they fire people who have been there through Democrat and Republican eras because they are the unelected bureaucrats? The thought of bringing in more outsiders scares them to death. This system is collapsing and they are too busy lining their pockets to give two shits!

Republicans for Hillary are starting to emerge under the pretense that Donald Trump is not a “conservative,” if you can believe that one. There have been secret meetings behind closed curtains among the Republican elite. The story they will spin is that Trump is not a conservative and his anti-Mexican comments would hurt the party, so they support Hillary instead. That is about as far from the truth as anyone can get. We all know that whatever anyone says while running for president has little chance of ever happening. They said Ronald Reagan was a hawk who would start World War III. The real issue behind the curtain is simply that Trump is an outsider who would threaten their cushy jobs. Hillary is by no means a “conservative,” and on that score she is far worse than anything Trump has had to say. So what is really the story here?

It is simply that Trump is an outsider. I have written many times that John Boehner was a dictator. He threw off anyone who supported Ron Paul from every finance committee. It had nothing to do with the people they represented. His forced resignation was the start of this civil unrest within the Republican Party. But because they have banned mirrors on Capitol Hill, everyone else is the problem and never the members of the “establishment.” I wrote how if Boehner was made dictator he would NEVER shut down any agency or reduce government. This is all about maintaining the status-quo.

So now a split is emerging. Republicans for Hillary are starting to shape up inside the Republican establishment. They will, no doubt, change the rules in the way they rigged them to stop Ron Paul’s name from being introduced because he had won delegates. That means ONLY Trump’s name can be introduced for nomination. We are watching the pretense of a Democracy crumble and fall. What they do not get, even now, is that this is not about Trump. He just appears to be the choice of the “silent majority” as the lesser of two evils. The bankers will be pouring heaps of money on Hillary for they too do not want to be on the side who does not own the White House. That is the HUGE THREAT to the establishment that Trump represents. He would be far more “conservative” than the pretend Republican “conservatives” who have gone along with making government bigger and bigger. This has nothing to do with “conservatives” but everything to do with the special interests who own them. They want Hillary before Trump any day. This is going to make 2016 very interesting for it is a real battle. I suspect they will conjure up anything if not some staged assassination and blame it on a Mexican who they will pay very well. Then, like the Kennedy assassination, pay another to kill him who will conveniently die before trial of natural causes. Hey, they know what works.

Note: Kennedy was against expanding the military establishment and it has been argued that this was the motive to eliminate him. His debate on funding the military created a gold panic in 1960 which revealed his understanding of the issue that the decline in the dollar and ultimately Bretton Woods was caused by military expansion.

Eisenhower’s warning upon leaving office in his Farewell Address on January 17, 1961, was to beware of the “military establishment.”

COMMENT: Hi Martin,

Thought you might be interested in this; we had a local council election yesterday (Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Australia), and in one of the divisions Donald Trump managed to secure 1% of the vote!

In justifying their vote, one person said, “The system is run by clowns, why not vote for him”, more evidence people are sick of our leaders. Mind you we have a crazy system here where voting is compulsory, so I guess that brings out the jokers.

Love your stuff by the way, I’m a long time follower. Keep up the great work.

A

REPLY: Well if you do not have the money, the establishment will never allow you to run. The special interests own both sides of the ticket. So all we have is Donald Trump who has the money and the guts to at least run. I am just fascinated how politics are degenerating on a global scale. It has become so corrupt that the comment is not so off base. Perhaps it will be Trump or blood in the streets from revolution where the silent majority loses it when they find out their pensions are not there. The question becomes, can the pretense of democracy prevail to allow someone like Trump, regardless of what he says, defeat the establishment? That is a very dark question. We indeed live in interesting times.

COMMENT: Marty, I figured out why you bought the bust of Julius Caesar commissioned by Cleopatra. He was assassinated on the ides of march and that is effectively about Pi day.

…

REPLY: Very good. Yes, even Brutus issued a coin where he proudly declared he killed Caesar on the Ides of March – “EID MAR.” I never noticed before that the entire revolution and the end of the Roman Republic began on pi day. I must confess, I missed that one. As for the bust, yes, it is probably the most important sculpture in existence. It is very interesting that our models also targeted this mid-March period for the start of the decline in CONFIDENCE in the EU. Coincidence? We will find out I suppose.

Julius Caesar Bust by Pollini