The US Congressional Budget Office is warning that the federal deficit has hit a point of no return. It is far too late to cut wasteful government spending. Politicians have kicked the can down the road for far too long and left us with a financial system held up through perpetual borrowing that cannot be […]
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent continually denies that tariffs will become a tax on consumers. When asked if the Trump administration was comfortable with the rising cost of goods, Bessent declared, “the American dream is not ‘let them eat flat screens.’” “Not at all,” Bessent replied. “What I’m saying is the American dream is not ‘let […]
American businesses are losing confidence in the US economy under Trump due to the tariff wars. CNBC’s CFO Council quarterly survey for Q1 2025 learned that America’s top CFOs are increasingly pessimistic about the economy due to these “disruptive” and “aggressive” tariff policies. Around 60% of respondents believe the US will fall into a recession […]
President Donald Trump is urging the Fed to cut interest rates to offset the inflation that will be caused by tariffs. “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump wrote. “Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!” Reducing […]
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expects inflation to be “transitory,” a word reminiscent of America’s situation three years ago when the Fed repeatedly urged the public to underplay inflation as it would improve. Conditions did not improve, as we later learned, and the Fed will have a hard time convincing the markets that this […]
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Jerome Powell kept rates unchanged as our computer was projecting. However, he did weigh in on the state of the US economy, pointing out that Donald Trump’s policies were one reason why inflation is turning back up. He also reduced the Fed’s 2025 growth projection, noting that uncertainty around the slowing economy is increasing. The […]
COMMENT: Marty, it looks like Trump is aware of the ECM. The markets crashed right on cue with Socrates, and he refused to rule out a recession. What is most curious is that you had a Panic Cycle for this week of the 10th. I heard you prevent Google from searching your private blog. If […]
QUESTION: The criticism of your Economic Confidence Model has been that it oversimplifies complex economies, ignoring variables like policy changes or technological shifts. Would you address that? DL ANSWER: This emanates from the economic academic community that is Marxist based that rests on the assumption that they can steer the economy through economic disturbances. I […]
The insanity over the U.S. inflation data illustrates just how braindead analysis has become. The price of eggs grabbed a lot of headlines – up 15%. But supply shortages are to blame for that surge – avian flu kills chickens. Raising interest rates will not stop the bird flu. The Fed cannot do anything about […]
