QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Nobody has a computer that covers everything. Your forecast at the WEC that the Democratic Party would collapse is unprecedented. Nobody has even contemplated that such a thing could happen. Yet right now this is unfolding. The new polls from NBC News and CNN. The former poll showed that only 27% of Americans held a positive view of the party, with only 7% holding a “very positive” view. Both are record lows for the poll. Then, the CNN results found the Democrats’ approval at 29%, setting the record low for that poll as well.

Is there anything you can say as to how Socrates can forecast what nobody is capable of even thinking about?

Wm

ANSWER: My confrontation with the bankers who told the CFTC to shut us down after the forecast that Russia would collapse in 1998 was predicated on the assumption that the forecasts work only because I have more institutional clients than the NY crowd combined. What they never considered was that just maybe I discovered something profound that the New Yorker called the Secret Cycle.

What I discovered changed my life. There are two paths of research.

• (1) The Max Path: You start with a theory and cherry-pick facts to claim you are right
• (2) The Adam Smith Path: You observe to figure out how something functions.

You cannot discover what you already know.

The complexity that exists is remarkable. But the precision of how and when events will take place is also astonishing. All economic theories from Marx onward began with the same assumption: that the business cycle is random and that, therefore, the government, via its central banks, can manipulate it to create perpetual prosperity.

I had a nice discussion with Paul Volcker, and he agreed. The business cycle was about 8 years. Both Volcker and Burns concluded that the business cycle always wins. All the theories that try to manipulate society to eliminate the business cycle are out of mind. What I bumped into was not mere complexity but precision that I never expected to discover.

This is Not the First Political Party to Collapse

A significant factor in the collapse of the Federal Party was the anti-state view in favor of centralized federal power. Additionally, there was the War of 1812. For a long time, the Federalist party supported peace with Britain and war with France, whereas the Democratic-Republican party had the exact opposite position. Eventually, British behavior towards the US during its war with France caused anti-British and thus anti-Federalist sentiment. The Democrats have sought to exert power in Washington and dictate policy to the states on issues such as abortion. They have also supported Ukraine and fostered the war against Russia, which was why the Neocons swung to the Democrats.

The Hartford Convention of 1814-1815 was essential in the Federalist party’s collapse. This mostly Federalist convention in New England suggested some constitutional amendments. Still, it was alleged to consider New England’s secession from the Union and a separate peace with Britain, not unlike California. After the war, the convention was widely viewed as an act of treason and a black mark on the reputation of the Federalist party.

What is also overlooked is that the Federalists were essentially a mercantilist party compared to the South, which was agrarian. Alexander Hamilton, along with most Federalists, was trying to raise the status of the United States internationally while still fighting the last war. Thus, the Federalists were pro-industrialization, which was still in its infancy. They say that industrialization would make the United States a more powerful nation in the eyes of the international community. Many wrongly assume that the Federalists were a “conservative” party in the modern sense. Yes, Hamilton was pro-bank and pro-business.

Hamilton also established the National Debt to raise the United States’ credit standing in international eyes. However, he was foremost a federalist, building the United States into a significant power. What is overlooked is that the Federalists were the ancestors of not just the Whigs but also FDR insofar as they saw the federal government had a role in regulating, managing, and controlling society and the economy.

Don’t forget that during the Whiskey Rebellion, a tax revolt in Pennsylvania, George Washington sent troops to kill those who rebelled. That was the essence of the Federalists: dictatorial power from a central command. The Federalists, like Roosevelt, believed in a positive role for the federal government. That is the place the Democrats have occupied today. Biden tried to hire 75,000 IRS agents who would be armed.

Then came the War of 1812, disrupting manufacturing imports to the United States, which led even the Jeffersonian Republican Party to relax its policies toward industrialization. The Federalists had supported Britain for business. But many manufacturers found the laissez-faire of the Republican Party to be more beneficial than the Federalists, whose policy was if it moved, tax it. If it stopped moving, kick it. The War of 1812 killed the Federalists, and more industrialists moved to Jefferson.

Instead of the War of 1812, when the British burned Washington, DC, and the Federalists had supported the British, today we have the Neocon Proxy War in Ukraine against Russia, and some idiots on Capitol Hill wanted to commission a marble bust of Zelensky to stand in the US Capitol next to Washington and Jefferson.

The Democratic Party still refuses to admit that, just perhaps, their radical fringe proposing sex changes in prison for illegal aliens just might have gone too far. Producing comic books on equality and handing them to the Taliban for $$20 million. In the real world, you have to have a feasible business plan. In Washington, the crazier the idea, the more money you get.

Here are the two computer forecast arrays from 2018 and 2024. 2024 was a significant target in 2018, yet the 2021 target was the strongest with a Panic Cycle. That was Biden. That was all she wrote, folks, for the Democrats. They will not exist by 2033.

This chart plots as a percentage of total seats combined in the House and Senate. They peaked out before slavery, and each rally produced a declining trend.  Sorry, but this is a bear market. It will be time to turn out the light for the Democrats, and their wacky WOKE agenda is loved only by the extreme fringe. My father was a Depression Democrat. He would never have voted Democrat today.

I am starting with a book on the Economic Confidence Model that I promised I would do to leave for society. I will probably print the first edition myself, for it will be well illustrated and formal publishers don’t like that because it is too expensive to produce. The second edition can be stripped of the illustrations they do not want to print. But I tend to be a perfectionist. It has to be right to put my name on it. I don’t sell advertising here because I do not want to appear to endorse any product.

The European Union has a “new normal” for bloc resolutions that no longer require unanimous votes. Hungary adamantly rejects the proposal to send $22 billion (20 billion euros) to Ukraine, therefore, the bloc instantaneously changed the rules and determined that unanimity is no longer a requirement.

“The statement on Ukraine today will be issued as an annex on behalf of the 26,” said one senior EU diplomat, granted anonymity to discuss Thursday’s closed-door talks. “This is the new normal. And it is useful when it comes to political intent. Maybe down the line though we will encounter other problems.”

Hungarian politician Péter Szijjártó said that his nation will not support “a pro-war stance” and vehemently believes that an additional aid package will only worsen matters. “We will not allow ourselves to be dragged into this, we will not allow Hungarian taxpayers’ money to be used to finance arms shipments to Ukraine. Instead, we support peace negotiations,” he wrote on Facebook. He also noted that the United States had offered Ukraine the option to initiate a ceasefire deal that Zelensky infamously turned down.

Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are now calling for “concrete proposals on how to decisively advance Ukraine’s accession process” to join the EU. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she believes Ukraine could gain access to the bloc before 2030. In the meantime, Ukraine would like to enjoy the benefits that come along with being an EU member such as duty-free trade deals that allow them to undercut other members in the bloc.

The EU is heading toward failure because it was never designed as a true economic union but rather as a political project driven by bureaucratic elites who have little understanding of free markets or economic cycles. From its inception, the EU has been obsessed with centralizing power in Brussels, stripping individual member states of their sovereignty while imposing unrealistic economic policies that are now leading to its unraveling.

Hungary, under Viktor Orban, has taken a different path from the rest of the EU. It has resisted Brussels’ mandates on immigration, energy, and foreign policy. Orbán has maintained strong economic ties with Russia and China, recognizing that Hungary’s energy security depends on Russian oil and gas. Yet, Brussels has the power to override elected officials such as Orban and dismiss the democratic process entirely. A few unelected bureaucrats in Brussels now have ultimate power over the lives of the entirety of Europe—precisely why they created the union in the first place.

Few know that Bill Gates heavily lobbied for the Inflation Reduction Act, which former President Joe Biden later admitted was intended to combat climate change and not inflation. Gates met with key lawmakers like Senator Joe Manchin ahead of the 2022 legislation. Another tool utilized by Gates was Breakthrough Energy, a venture fund he established in 2015 to promote net zero policies. The group recently laid off most of their employees in Washington, D.C., as Gates shifts methods for “climate” advocacy.

“We need to go from 51 billion tons of emissions per year to zero,” Breakthrough Energy stated on its website. “The only way to avoid the worst impacts of climate change is to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions from 51 billion tons a year, where they are now, to net-zero—and we need to do it by 2050. That means we need unprecedented technological transformations in almost every sector of modern life.”

Gates has every intention of continuing to push for net zero by 2050. However, Gates admitted that he needed to shift his policy amidst the new political landscape where he cannot directly influence policy. And what better way to do that than to throw money at the private sector. The focus is now on creating clean energy technology rather than manipulating public policy. Gates admitted he had to shift course because Donald Trump was revitalizing the energy sector and lifting restrictions on fossil fuels.

Breakthrough Energy and Gates are now focusing on Europe, where leaders are still on board with the Paris Accord. Instead of acknowledging that Europe’s economy is failing due to these initiatives, Breakthrough claims that key companies like Volkswagen, ThyssenKrupp Steel, Northvolt, and ACC Gigafactories are failing because Europe is not adopting clean energy fast enough.

As the website states:

“Europe is at a crossroads. In his analysis published in September 2024, Mario Draghi highlighted an “existential risk” and forecast Europe’s “slow agony” if it doesn’t radically change course to reverse declining productivity, investment, and innovation. Recent announcements only seem to confirm this dire prediction: industries are reducing production across Europe (Volkswagen, thyssenkrupp Steel); announced investments are being cancelled or put on hold (Northvolt, ACC Gigafactories), and industrial output in Europe’s four largest economies is declining, with Germany, France, Italy and Spain having recorded a year-on-year drop in the production of capital goods and consumer durables.

There is no denying it: Europe is in crisis, one in which its established industrial base is eroding while new sectors fail to get off the ground. This is particularly concerning for cleantech where Europe’s ambitions are high, but the economic realities are sobering. As the recent bankruptcy of Northvolt reminds us, even with solid industrial policy in place, it is hard to scale up in Europe. Turning this situation around will be one of the overriding priorities of the new European Commission, which has recently unveiled the Competitiveness Compass and will soon produce the Clean Industrial Deal, two new (long overdue) economic and industrial policy programs. In a volatile security and fractured geopolitical environment, with looming threats of trade wars and deepening systemic competition, European policymakers have their work cut out for them.”

The European Commission welcomes Gates’ proposal and believes it can perpetually spend to achieve net zero by 2050. I explained in another blog post how scientists have stated that this goal is IMPOSSIBLE. Moreover, the World Economic Forum has pushed the EU to create the Clean Industrial Deal (CID) through a €100 billion spending package. It is no conspiracy to point out that globalist organizations are pushing Europe into economic ruin.

COMMENT: Martin,

I am extremely concerned about what is going on in Canada. Max Carnage has called an election in 30days!

Elections Canada now needs to find an estimated 285,000 temporary workers. What could possibly go wrong?

This is completely insane for what will be arguably the most import election in Canadian History!

So many Canadians are distracted by their Trump Derangement Syndrome, that they can’t think clearly.

You would think that Trump was running for Prime Minister of Canada as all Federal party leaders are all campaigning on this 51st State non-sense,

And not focusing on how Canada has lost its way and Bankrupt.

If a Uni-Party was to write a script for creating mass confusion, all in the efforts to control people, what we are witnessing is it.

In the 2021 federal election, the number of polling stations in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) decreased significantly compared to 2019. (57 Ridings out of a total of 338)

Eleven GTA ridings saw more than a 50% reduction in polling stations, with some, like Toronto Centre, experiencing an 84% drop (from 91 stations in 2019 to 15 in 2021).

And no one is asking questions.

When we elect clowns expect a circus.

Time for a Direct Democracy!!

This really confirms that Canada can no longer avoid splitting.

What is Socrates predicting for Canada?

Jim M

REPLY: Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney has called a snap election to be held on April 28th, 2025, primarily to address the ongoing trade war with the U.S. and to seek a strong mandate for his government. This election comes shortly after Carney took office following Justin Trudeau’s resignation. What I find really interesting is that Socrates targeted the week of April 28th as the strongest turning point in the C$ BEFORE Carney called a snap election. I believe that the way things unfold confirms Socrates, as some economic pressure behind the scenes compelled Carney to call the election for April 28th, conforming to Socrates’ preordained forecast. People wrongly look at this backward rather than this is the chicken or egg scenario. There is pressure first that causes the reaction.

In this case, you are correct. Carney has made Trump his opposition to creating the distraction as Europe is doing with Putin. Then, the people are pointed in the opposite direction. Carney, like Trudeau, is also indoctrinated by Klaus Schwab and the World Economic Forum. He was one of the key figures behind Net-Zero Climate Change. I would not expect a reverse of his views, and he has even proposed joining the EU, which is anti-free speech and authoritarian. So, joining the EU is better than the USA? They have restrictions and tariffs that will never replace US trade, and the regulations will drive companies out of business; there goes Alberta, and Free Speech will no longer exit. Perhaps you will be thrown in prison for saying you are tired of your tax dollars going to illegal immigrants, as the UK sentenced a man to 20 months for that comment.

Why is he issuing Canadian debt in US dollars when he hates everything Trump stands for? Does he understand that taking Canada down this path means that there will be a decline in the confidence in Canadian debt? As a result, like emerging markets that cannot sell their debt in local currency, so they, too,  sell it in US dollars.

Socrates shows that Canada will move into a recession that will bottom in 2028. Unemployment will rise again, and this is likely to finally open the eyes of Canadians. When we look at 2032, Canada will overthrow its parliamentary system, and the fact that Carney was not elected by the people will make this possible.

A new NBC News poll shows that the Democratic Party’s popularity has dropped to a record low. Only 27% of registered voters said they held positive views of the party — the lowest figure in the network’s polling dating to 1990. Former President Joe Biden continue to delude himself that he could have beat Trump. He recently told the Democratic leaders he’d raise funds, campaign, and campaign for Democrats to recover lost ground as the Trump administration is gutting the waste in government everyone said needs to be done but then file countless lawsuits to prevent the cuts.

It’s always a Constitutional Crisis to object to whatever the Democrats support. Our computer has forecast that the Democratic Party will split and collapse just as the Federalists did for pretty much the same reason – dictatorial power from a centralized government. Schummer is admitting that they have not only engaged in the lawsuits against Trump to influence the election, but they have been stuffing the courts to re-interpret the Constitution to be PROGRESSIVE, which was a movement that lost back in 1913

It was the “Progressive” Movement that passed the 16th Amendment to tax the rich, which ended up taxing everyone. Then they hand you a refund check and never pay interest,t borrowing from the poor and middle class for free. Their rhetoric to target the rich only fills their own pockets. How do they leave the office with millions of dollars on a public salary?

Roosevelt also sought to stuff the Supreme Court with his cronies to redefine the Constitution with the Marxist slant of Progressiveness. He was stopped. But he also devalued the dollar, confiscated gold, all to fund his Socialist New Deal, and officially recognized Joseph Stalin as the new head of a Communist State.

The real Constitutional Crisis has been the Democrats. They have sought to impose dictatorial rule even on Abortion, knowing that this offends many and their religion. The Supreme Court UPHELD the intent of the Constitution. Remember the state’s rights? The Democrats do not believe in state rights. They want dictatorial control, and the Supreme Court has failed in its obligation to preserve the state’s rights. What it did with Abortion was to hand it back to the states where, under the Constitution, what should have taken place.

Like the Department of Education imposing centralized commands stripping states of the Due Process of Law. Parents have no rights in local education when they are dictated from Washington. What is the purpose of having state governments if Washington can overrule various local policies? Under the law, someone robs a WaWa, which is not a federal crime but a local one. To be FEDERAL, it has to be Mafia, Secuties, or involving murder involving drugs.

Kamala’s comment that you are at the wrong rally demonstrated this centralized dictatorial policy. That was saying to the Bible Belt – screw you. Your religion means nothing.  Bernie Sanders’s show with the singer rejecting Gold is so out of touch with the central core of Americans; they embrace every fringe idea and, as Maher said, they are ridiculous, and he is a Democrat. That is why the Democratic Party will become extinct. The Democrats peaked with our model in 2021 with that election, and we have been in a bearish decline for 5 years into 2026. They do not appear viable any longer by the time we reach 2030. We may see a split for any election in 2028, fragmenting the political process.

Many people have written in and are shocked that even the forecast I delivered at the 2024 WEC in Orlando was that the Democrats were collapsing and the party would no longer exist. They are amazed how the computer put that forecast out long before anyone even thought about the issue. The Democrats are so entrenched in their fringe nonsense that they will NEVER admit a mistake, and the problem they see is that the American people are confused – not them.

Even the Hill, a left-wing biased news organization,  commented:

“Continuing Democratic divisions from Washington’s recent funding fight show their party is disintegrating. Its fissures run between the House and Senate, between their base and their elected leaders, between establishmentarians and ideologues, and between generations.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is finally becoming an honest politician. First, he openly told Americans that he believed they were greedy for questioning taxation. Then, he admitted on live TV that the Democrats intentionally weighted the courts with judges in a direct attempt to beat Donald Trump. Will he admit that they played a role in Trump’s assassination attempts next?

“There are those who believe that we are, in real-time, living through an assault on the constitutional order. Do you believe that we are in a constitutional crisis right now?” the host asked.

“Yes,” Schumer responded, adding, “Our democracy is at risk because Donald Trump shows that he wishes to violate the laws in many, many different ways. Then Schumer said what we all suspected out loud: “The good news here is, we did put 235 judges—progressive judges, judges not under the control of Trump—last year on the bench, and they are ruling against Trump time after time after time.”

It is beyond hypocritical for these corrupt lawmakers to claim Trump is the one putting our democracy at risk. The new democrats of today cannot stand US democracy because they have no authoritative power when the people have a voice. Schumer said he hopes these judges will overturn Trump’s rulings again and again. Progressive judges have already forced funds to continue flowing to the National Institute of Health, they pushed back against defunding USAID, and attempted to prevent migrants from being deported. At every turn, Democrat-installed political activists posing as judges are overruling the president.

These people have no respect for US democracy or law and order. These partisan, dishonorable judges are incapable of ruling impartially. They gained their position by playing dirty for the Dems, and now there are over 100 cases open against the people, and not directly aginst Trump, as the people of the United States voted for Trump and the policies he represents. All 235 judges are attempting to block Trump at every turn because they’d rather see the nation burn to the ground than a successful Trump presidency, especially since many of these rulings are undoing the damage caused by the former autopen president’s administration.

All 235 judges are not abiding by the Constitution that they have sworn to uphold and should be impeached as they are unable and unwilling to rule unbiasedly. The left is openly manipulating public policy and committing crimes in plain sight. So far, according to Schumer who cannot keep his foot out of his mouth, the Democrats have “won” 87% of cases against Trump. He admitted that the Democrats have paid off thousands of activists to work on “defeating the president.” They certainly do not want to reduce government or give power to the states because progressive policies are not popular with the American people. The Democrats are especially offended by DOGE because they did not want the people to see how recklessly they have spent our tax dollars on useless programs and NGOs that funnel back into their personal wallets.

The media says Trump is a dictator for demanding that these judges vacate their positions immediately. The Supreme Court needs to get involved here. Not only should the judges be impeached, but the swamp character like Schumer who have discarded the rule of law do not belong in office. When judges are immune and above the law, impossible to impeach, and they cannot be fired for life like a monarch, there can be no actual rule of law. Judges will interpret the law how they like to support their political agenda. Our American legal system has to be just scrapped. These are jobs that could and should be lost to AI.

Numerous nations are warning their citizens not to travel to the United States ahead of the busiest months for tourism. These are not true travel warnings but fabricated suggestions to deter people from visiting the United States for political reasons. These “advisories” are making worldwide headlines as the world turns its back on America.

Globalist leaders disagree with America’s policy of securing the border. “A criminal conviction in the United States, false information regarding the purpose of stay, or even a slight overstay of the visa upon entry or exit can lead to arrest, detention, and deportation upon entry or exit,” Germany’s foreign ministry stated. Yet, anyone visiting a foreign nation must meet these same requirements and could be denied entry for an array of reasons.

Three German citizens were separately denied entry in recent weeks, and their stories made worldwide headlines. This is standard operating procedure, as these travelers had incorrect papers. The same instance happened with a woman from the United Kingdom who was denied entry for having an incorrect visa. Again, none of this is new or a cause for concern.

Still, the United Kingdom issued a warning to potential travelers. “You should comply with all entry, visa and other conditions of entry. The authorities in the U.S. set and enforce entry rules strictly. You may be liable to arrest or detention if you break the rules,” the guidance reads. Precisely—you must abide by the rules to gain access to a foreign nation.

Denmark’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also issued a travel advisory for the United States but for a different reason. The United States now requires passport holders to state their assigned sex at birth—male or female—on their record. There are only two options, and yes, this is a safety concern. Someone could easily create a fake identity to enter on illegal grounds. Customs officers must see identification that matches the person in front of them. Denmark is now warning citizens that they could face discrimination.

Other nations like Canada have unofficially advised citizens to take precautions when visiting the United States.

The World Travel & Tourism Council’s (WTTC) 2024 Economic Impact Research found that the tourism sector added $2.36 trillion to US GDP in 2023, a 7% increase from the year before. Over 18 million Americans are employed in this crucial sector.

These advisories are not intended to protect the people. There is no danger in visiting the United States. In fact, Europe has increased its entry requirements more so than the United States, but Trump derangement syndrome has spread like a pandemic.

Good news for the people of Mississippi—lawmakers have finally removed the state income tax. Mississippi is now joins Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Washington, Texas, and Wyoming in eliminating this excessive and predatory taxation practice.

The first income tax was created in 1861 during the Civil War as a mechanism to finance the war effort. In addition, Congress passed the Internal Revenue Act in 1862, which created the Bureau of Internal Revenue, an eventual predecessor to the IRS. The Bureau of Internal Revenue placed excise taxes on everything from tobacco to jewelry. However, the income tax did not last and was not renewed in 1872. In the Springer v. United States 102 US 586 (1881), the Supreme Court upheld the income tax.

The origin of the current income tax on individuals is generally cited as the passage of the 16th Amendment, passed by Congress on July 2, 1909, and ratified February 3, 1913. It was on June 16, 1909, President William Howard Taft, in an address to the Sixty-first Congress, proposed a two percent federal income tax on corporations by way of an excise tax and a constitutional amendment to allow the previously enacted income tax.

Once this Marxist concept of direct taxation was created, then the government must know everything we do, track us for it assumes we all cheat and lie, and in the process, it is hunting money globally to the point that world economic growth has been declining.

Those against Mississippi eliminating the income tax are proponents of big government. They are concerned that the lost revenue will hurt the public sector and low-income residents will be disproportionately burdened as other taxes are likely to rise. Yet, eliminating the income tax will directly lead to Mississippians receiving a larger take-home pay. Businesses, especially small businesses, end up taking on this tax as is passed through from entities to the individual owner who is unable reinvest those funds into his or her company. Businesses will now have the ability to become more competitive and attract a more desirable workforce.

The state has until 2037 to determine how to manage its budget without robbing its citizens and punishing workers. Income tax will fall from 4% to 3% in 2027 and then will see a 0.3% reduction until it is eliminated entirely.

Income tax is a relic of failed economic policies that governments refuse to abandon because it gives them direct control over the wealth of the people. When you tax income, you reduce incentives to work, invest, and innovate. Governments use the tax as a reason to continue perpetual spending that always leads to deficits. States do not need this tax to function. States need to operate within their means to function without punishing the people for fiscal mismanagement.