PRIVATE BLOG – Gold and the March High?

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There is not a single European leader who has made a statement. All they constantly do is insult and threaten war. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said: “If anyone were to miscalculate and think they can get away with an attack on Poland or on any other ally, they will be met with the full force of this fierce alliance. Our reaction will be devastating,” he declared in Warsaw. “This has to be very clear to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and anyone else who wants to attack us.”

They know nothing about military strategy, nor are they interested in peace. Instead, they want war and will create a false flag to achieve that goal. Europe is in very dire condition. Cyclical Storm Clouds are gathering. The Eurozone has reached a dramatic inflection point, and the refusal to address the debt consolidation from the outset has put Europe at risk for a severe sovereign debt crisis. But the stakes today are incredibly high. If one member fails, this will disrupt everything, weakening the Eurozone beyond repair.

Constantly threatening war and a single attack on Poland will bring a devastating retaliation if you are pushed to that point. You MUST attack the entirety of the Eurozone. You would need to take out NATO headquarters before they could even run to their bunkers.

Putin criticized Lenin, saying he was not a statesman; he was just a Bolshevik. You can now say the same about all of these European leaders. There is not a single statesman among them. These morons are placing the entire world at risk because they think threats work. History demonstrates that it will never work. They neither understand Russia. Worse still, they certainly do not understand themselves. They have waged a proxy war against Russia via Ukraine and think they can defeat Russia conventionally, and their threats will prevent a nuclear exchange. This proxy war guarantees this will be WWIII.

Trump declassifies all the FBI files of RussiaGate that Hillary created and John McCain handed to Comey. He asked the biased press, will they “look” no less, report the truth just for once? This gives the media the right to go in and check it, and now we will see who is really beholden to destroying this country, conspiring with the LEFT to take over America.

She had 70% of Americans assuming Russia was our Greatest Enemy

Justifying World War III – on Lies & Fake News

This story in The Atlantic that secret war plans were disclosed to known anti-Trump writer Jeffrey Goldberg, who was accidentally added to the group, is falling apart. The Atlantic is not a respected publication, and Goldberg is by no means a true journalist when he promotes only one side of politics – that is, abusing the First Amendment to indoctrinate others into your political philosophy. Journalists should be like judges – UNBIASED. We have corrupt judges, and they should be disbarred.

John Ratcliffe is generally respected on both sides of the aisle, except the questionable Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), who should be removed from office because he does not represent the country, only his party’s interests, and certainly not all of the people of his state. He loves grandstanding and distorting facts for a party that is collapsing. Ratcliffe made it clear there were no war plans and that this was not classified communication, but Signal is approved for governmental communications. Even Edward Snowden uses Signal because it is encrypted.

The US District Judge John Bates, who ruled that federal health agencies USAID must restore information regarding transgender issues that was removed by Trump’s executive order regarding gender ideology, had an undisclosed conflict of interest that should be criminal. Judge Bates’ wife, Carol Rhees, who founded a nonprofit, has allegedly received funding from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). If this is true, it is criminal!

Between Journalists and Judges who are too compromised to do their jobs, they should be imprisoned to enjoy the tax-free living where you get to eat food that comes into federal prisons marked “NOT FIT FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION.” The United States is doomed because people like these two examples do not care about the country. This is about self-interest,s and in the old days, that would be called at least “un-American” activity.

Abraham Lincoln shut down such media and arrested journalists for fakes news with an Executive Order. Can you imagine is Trump did that today? They would call him a Nazi Fascist and probably a dicator/communist.

The United Arab Emirates committed to one of the largest foreign direct investment pledges after agreeing to invest $1.4 trillion in the United States over the next decade.  Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s national security adviser and a key figure in the Gulf nation’s economic strategy, met with President Donald Trump last week to discuss the massive investment promise.

The detailed framework has not been outlined. However, the UAE has said it would like to “substantially increase” existing investments in semiconductors, energy, manufacturing, and AI—all key sectors for the USA. It is no secret that American manufacturing has been suffering in recent years. The CHIPS act did little to promote semiconductor manufacturing in the US. Donald Trump has accused Taiwan of taking semiconductor business away from the US, and naturally, has threatened tariffs. The US must work fast if it wishes to compete with China in the AI realm, with DeepSeek being one example of China’s technological achievements.

Emirates Global Aluminum has announced plans to create the first new aluminum smelter in the US in nearly four decades. The White House noted this “would nearly double US production capacity” in aluminum and provide a much-needed boost to manufacturing overall.

Investment fund ADQ, based in the UAE, will partner with US-based Energy Capital Partners to invest $25 billion into energy infrastructure including data centers. This comes after billionaire Hussain Sajwani announced in January that he plans to place $20 billion into a US data center as his firm, Damac, already has close ties with Trump’s business ventures.

This historic deal is excellent news for the US economy and part of a much larger capital shift taking place as foreign capital seeks a safe haven.

American businesses are losing confidence in the US economy under Trump due to the tariff wars. CNBC’s CFO Council quarterly survey for Q1 2025 learned that America’s top CFOs are increasingly pessimistic about the economy due to these “disruptive” and “aggressive” tariff policies.

Around 60% of respondents believe the US will fall into a recession by the second half of this year, with 15% believing the recession will come in 2026. When this survey was conducted last quarter, prior to the tariff wars and trade volatility, only 7% of CFOs believed the nation was heading into a recession. This figure is a glimpse at how heavily trade uncertainty is destroying confidence.

How do corporations plan ahead when trade restrictions are subject to change at a moment’s notice? It’s simply not possible, and what happens is corporations will err on the side of caution and prematurely raise prices regardless of whether the tariffs go into effect. Unsurprisingly, nearly all (95%) of respondents said ever-changing trade policies are impacting their ability to make business decisions. Will tariffs be implemented? When? At what rate? The uncertainty is causing complete chaos in boardrooms across America.

Another 30% cited inflation as the biggest business risk but that is currently directly tied to this tariff ordeal, as is the valid concern of consumer demand (20%) as the people are also losing confidence in the economy and therefore are less likely to spend. Everything is connected. Inflation rises and demand drops as the people are unwilling and/or unable to spend.

Then 90% believe tariffs will create “resurgent inflation,” and half do not believe the Fed will be able to meet the 2% inflation target until the second half of 2026, if not 2027. I explained in an earlier blog post how the Fed cannot control tariff inflation through rates as rates do not offset higher prices set by trade barriers.

I have repeatedly warned that this tariff fiasco could be the nail in the coffin for Trump’s legacy. Those advising Trump are idiots who do not understand how the world economy functions. America will not be “liberated” on April 2 when many of these tariffs are set to go into effect. America cannot have a boom when the rest of the world is contracting. The world economy and peace survive on free trade.

I never looked back after leaving New Jersey. The entire state has succumbed to far-left progressive policies that led to some of the highest tax rates in the nation. These progressive woke ideas have infiltrated every aspect of the state, down to healthcare. Inspira Health Network is now permitting parents to choose their newborn’s gender and sexual identities at birth.

Gone are the days when newborns were swaddled in blue or pink blankets. “Do you identify your baby as: female, male, transgender female/trans woman/male to female, transgender male/trans man/female to male, gender queer, neither exclusively male nor female, additional gender category/self-described.”

That’s right—hospitals are permitting parents to DECIDE the gender of their infants. If you always wanted a boy but gave birth to a girl, you can simply decide that your baby identifies as a boy. This is “the science” they expect the public to blindly trust. XX or XY simply does not suffice.

Since they always take matters ten steps further, the questionnaire also permits parents to DECIDE their newborn’s sexuality. “Which of the following best describes your baby: lesbian or gay, straight or heterosexual, bisexual, questioning or unsure, self-describe.”

Truly disgusting and disturbing state-permitted child abuse.

Yet, these same progressives believe that unborn babies do not have rights and want “birthing people” to have the ability to terminate pregnancy at any point. But as soon as the baby enters this cruel world, they should know their sexuality and pick a trendy gender. It is atrocious that this practice is legal.

“Per recent guidance from the New Jersey Department of Health stating that health systems can collect that data in a clinically appropriate and culturally competent manner, Inspira Health will request this information from adults. This update in protocol remains compliant with the law, and we respect patients’ right to decline to respond,” Inspira Health said in a statement to Fox News Digital.

New Jersey implemented a law in June 2022 that requires healthcare networks to collect gender and sexual orientation data “in a culturally competent and sensitive manner.” “The bill was modeled after an Indiana statute and is designed to provide public health officials with the data they need to develop public health measures that effectively serve all New Jerseyans,” Democrat Herbert Conaway, one of the creators of this bill, stated.

However, he insists that the bill was not intended to provide troubled parents with the power to select their baby’s sexual and gender identity. “Parents who are welcoming newborns into the world should be focused on their baby, not answering a questionnaire about sex or identity. This bill should never have been applied this way.”

Republican New Jersey State Sen. Holly Schepisi is fighting to remove minors from this obscene data collection requirement. “Apparently, as drafted, as guidance was being provided, the interpretation by a lot of people, was that this data must be collected from all demographics without regard to age,” Schepisi stated.

These babies did not ask to be born to mentally disturbed, woke parents who can manipulate their identity at will. They reach adolescence and are bombarded with gender and sexual identity confusion at school. The Trump Administration would like to ban gender reassignment surgeries for minors because it is CHILD ABUSE—life-altering, irreversible, horrendous child abuse that the far-left is encouraging. We look at other cultures in terror as they castrate females or marry off their 8-year-olds but turn a blind eye to the blatant new form of child abuse occurring in the United States.

LEAVE THE CHILDREN ALONE!

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Nobody has a computer that covers everything. Your forecast at the WEC that the Democratic Party would collapse is unprecedented. Nobody has even contemplated that such a thing could happen. Yet right now this is unfolding. The new polls from NBC News and CNN. The former poll showed that only 27% of Americans held a positive view of the party, with only 7% holding a “very positive” view. Both are record lows for the poll. Then, the CNN results found the Democrats’ approval at 29%, setting the record low for that poll as well.

Is there anything you can say as to how Socrates can forecast what nobody is capable of even thinking about?

Wm

ANSWER: My confrontation with the bankers who told the CFTC to shut us down after the forecast that Russia would collapse in 1998 was predicated on the assumption that the forecasts work only because I have more institutional clients than the NY crowd combined. What they never considered was that just maybe I discovered something profound that the New Yorker called the Secret Cycle.

What I discovered changed my life. There are two paths of research.

• (1) The Max Path: You start with a theory and cherry-pick facts to claim you are right
• (2) The Adam Smith Path: You observe to figure out how something functions.

You cannot discover what you already know.

The complexity that exists is remarkable. But the precision of how and when events will take place is also astonishing. All economic theories from Marx onward began with the same assumption: that the business cycle is random and that, therefore, the government, via its central banks, can manipulate it to create perpetual prosperity.

I had a nice discussion with Paul Volcker, and he agreed. The business cycle was about 8 years. Both Volcker and Burns concluded that the business cycle always wins. All the theories that try to manipulate society to eliminate the business cycle are out of mind. What I bumped into was not mere complexity but precision that I never expected to discover.

This is Not the First Political Party to Collapse

A significant factor in the collapse of the Federal Party was the anti-state view in favor of centralized federal power. Additionally, there was the War of 1812. For a long time, the Federalist party supported peace with Britain and war with France, whereas the Democratic-Republican party had the exact opposite position. Eventually, British behavior towards the US during its war with France caused anti-British and thus anti-Federalist sentiment. The Democrats have sought to exert power in Washington and dictate policy to the states on issues such as abortion. They have also supported Ukraine and fostered the war against Russia, which was why the Neocons swung to the Democrats.

The Hartford Convention of 1814-1815 was essential in the Federalist party’s collapse. This mostly Federalist convention in New England suggested some constitutional amendments. Still, it was alleged to consider New England’s secession from the Union and a separate peace with Britain, not unlike California. After the war, the convention was widely viewed as an act of treason and a black mark on the reputation of the Federalist party.

What is also overlooked is that the Federalists were essentially a mercantilist party compared to the South, which was agrarian. Alexander Hamilton, along with most Federalists, was trying to raise the status of the United States internationally while still fighting the last war. Thus, the Federalists were pro-industrialization, which was still in its infancy. They say that industrialization would make the United States a more powerful nation in the eyes of the international community. Many wrongly assume that the Federalists were a “conservative” party in the modern sense. Yes, Hamilton was pro-bank and pro-business.

Hamilton also established the National Debt to raise the United States’ credit standing in international eyes. However, he was foremost a federalist, building the United States into a significant power. What is overlooked is that the Federalists were the ancestors of not just the Whigs but also FDR insofar as they saw the federal government had a role in regulating, managing, and controlling society and the economy.

Don’t forget that during the Whiskey Rebellion, a tax revolt in Pennsylvania, George Washington sent troops to kill those who rebelled. That was the essence of the Federalists: dictatorial power from a central command. The Federalists, like Roosevelt, believed in a positive role for the federal government. That is the place the Democrats have occupied today. Biden tried to hire 75,000 IRS agents who would be armed.

Then came the War of 1812, disrupting manufacturing imports to the United States, which led even the Jeffersonian Republican Party to relax its policies toward industrialization. The Federalists had supported Britain for business. But many manufacturers found the laissez-faire of the Republican Party to be more beneficial than the Federalists, whose policy was if it moved, tax it. If it stopped moving, kick it. The War of 1812 killed the Federalists, and more industrialists moved to Jefferson.

Instead of the War of 1812, when the British burned Washington, DC, and the Federalists had supported the British, today we have the Neocon Proxy War in Ukraine against Russia, and some idiots on Capitol Hill wanted to commission a marble bust of Zelensky to stand in the US Capitol next to Washington and Jefferson.

The Democratic Party still refuses to admit that, just perhaps, their radical fringe proposing sex changes in prison for illegal aliens just might have gone too far. Producing comic books on equality and handing them to the Taliban for $$20 million. In the real world, you have to have a feasible business plan. In Washington, the crazier the idea, the more money you get.

Here are the two computer forecast arrays from 2018 and 2024. 2024 was a significant target in 2018, yet the 2021 target was the strongest with a Panic Cycle. That was Biden. That was all she wrote, folks, for the Democrats. They will not exist by 2033.

This chart plots as a percentage of total seats combined in the House and Senate. They peaked out before slavery, and each rally produced a declining trend.  Sorry, but this is a bear market. It will be time to turn out the light for the Democrats, and their wacky WOKE agenda is loved only by the extreme fringe. My father was a Depression Democrat. He would never have voted Democrat today.

I am starting with a book on the Economic Confidence Model that I promised I would do to leave for society. I will probably print the first edition myself, for it will be well illustrated and formal publishers don’t like that because it is too expensive to produce. The second edition can be stripped of the illustrations they do not want to print. But I tend to be a perfectionist. It has to be right to put my name on it. I don’t sell advertising here because I do not want to appear to endorse any product.