Zelensky’ Hobson’s choice

April 16, 2025

2025_04_15_18_25_45_Zelensky_Submits_Bills_to_Extend_Martial_Law

Zelensky is a professional con artist. He has been steering Europe into World War III and loading up his offshore accounts. He keeps extending Martial Law so he does not have to stand for election. There is no way he would win an election after what he has been doing, kidnapping people off the street and sending them to die on the front line. He has sent Down Syndrome boys to the front line. He should be in prison for crimes against humanity.

 

From my sources, Zelensky would be lucky to get 25%. In theory, even those in the Donbas and Crimea should be allowed to vote, and the 8 million who fled Ukraine. Those in the Donbas and Crimea would not vote for him, add that to the 75% in the rest of the country who are against him for prolonging this war, and perhaps he is down to 10%.

 

2025_04_15_18_23_56_Zelensky_signs_law_extending_martial_law_in_Ukraine_until_May_9

He extended the Martial Law on February 5th, 2025, until May 9th, 2025. He and his corrupt buddies will extend it again until August. If there was a peace deal that ended the war, he would have to flee. These people will tear him apart.

Former_Ukrainian zelensky advisor Oleksiy Arestovych to run for president

Oleksiy Arestovych is the former presidential advisor to Zelensky, resigned and fled to New Zealand for his life for criticizing him over corruption. Arestovych has vowed to run for president and imprison Zelensky and all the politicians supporting him, who are destroying the country and wiping out a whole generation, all to enrich themselves.

This is the former adviser to Zelensky, Alexey Arestovich, who quit in protest. He has publicly stated that “The west deceived Russia. They promised not to push NATO to the east, and they did. They turned Ukraine into a huge anti-Russian country. If I was in Russia’s shoes, I would have done the exact same thing.” He has vowed to run for President when elections are held, and he promises to throw Zelensky in prison for life with his cronies.

Zelensky faces a Hobson’s choice – die by firing squad, or hanging?

Zelensky will have to flee Ukraine if there were an actual election. There is no question about it, he will not live to see old age. His personal hatred of Russians will destroy Europe, and new governments will come to power, and they will see him for what he is, assuming he even makes it that far. I do not know where he would get political asylum if there are no WOKE governments standing after 2026-2028.

War Fever in Europe Going Crazy

April 16, 2025

Austrian War Posters

COMMENT: Dear Marty!

These are original advertising posters for war bonds from 1914-1918 from
the former monarchy. I thought this might be of interest to you.

Wein Museum

I took the photos myself here. I hereby grant you all rights for publication on your blog.

Many people all over the world owe you and your tireless efforts an enormous amount.

I am Austrian. We, my wife and sons of military age, their friends, and our first grandson, are going to Paraguay in South America. We’ve had permanent residence permits since 2017.

Very few people here in Europe want to know or acknowledge the terrible things that await them. Even if there is no war, the economic misery will be bad enough to make Europe a poor continent for a long time to come. Young people will have a very hard time building something for themselves here in Europe after 2030. I saw how people in the Eastern Bloc lived in poverty before the opening and even long after. Back then, they could go to Germany and other wealthy European countries. Germany and other formerly prosperous European countries will not be wealthy
after 2030. The prosperity and opportunities for development that you and I had in our youth will no longer exist here after 2030.

I live near Melk Abbey. Whenever you are in Austria, it would be a great pleasure and honor for me to show you the inside of the abbey and other historic sites in Austria. My old family connections within the monarchical system still work. Who knows for how long…

In deep gratitude for everything you do for us ordinary people and the burden you have placed on yourself.

Many thanks, GB

REPLY: Thank you. I see that we are all in this together. In the town I grew up in, my grandfather had Germans living next door who migrated to the US before the war, for they saw what was coming. Down the street from my mother was another German couple who also migrated before the war. I remember listening to their stories and how they saw the political trend and tried to warn friends, but they thought they were extremists. I think growing up with those German neighbors exposed me to the horrors of war and how they had to leave their homeland when many thought they were nuts.

OSCE Vienna Peace Conference

I spoke with an attendee of the OSCE Vienna Peace Conference last week. He said they were not talking about peace, but that everyone needs to start drafting people for war with Russia. The Neocons have used Zelensky as their puppet to start World War III, just as the Greens used that 16-year-old Gretta for climate change.

MA War Cycle 2011 WEC

I have heard from others now in Europe that the press ONLY talks up war, and anybody who speaks against war is just Russian propaganda. These forecasts have come from the computer. It is the only fully functioning AI system in the world with more than a 40-year track record. At the 2011 WEC, I warned that the war cycle would turn up in 2014. In 2013, I made a post saying this would start in Ukraine.

Forecaster The Movie R 1

Nobody speaks to me in the middle of the night. I am not clairvoyant. Nobody has a track record that can match the forecasts I have done over the decades. This is why they made the movie The Forecaster, and the sequel should be out soon. Then they are making a Hollywood movie about my career with class A actors like the Big Short, all to show that there is order to this false image of chaos.

If it were just me, then there would be a shot of being wrong. It is not something I want to pound my chest and say, see I was right. I’d rather be wrong. My lawyer tells me I have to create a 501 (c) (3) to put Socrates into for if I died, the government would claim it’s worth several billion and demand inheritance taxes on such a value. My heirs would not have that type of cash, so the government would seize it in the end. To a large extent, this has been my burden.

So, to those people who think it’s just my opinion, they remind me of Bob Dylan’s song “It Ain’t Me Babe.”

 

 

New York University Encourages Student Protests

April 16, 2025

StudentBrainwashedCollege

Beginning with Barack Obama, the last true leader of the Democratic Party, every liberal affiliate is encouraging civil unrest. Washington has cut funding to universities that permit pro-Hamas rallies, but that has not deterred these organizations from permitting protests to continue. New York University is not merely permitting protests but encouraging them. In fact, they are urging white students to use “white privilege” to heighten the unrest.

The university created a “Protest Tips and Resources” page on its website to outline “Best Practices for Protesting Safely.” NYU claims that these protests are  “especially for Black and Brown people” and they encourage white students to “[u]se white privilege to protect others.”

I believe it is important to highlight what the Democrats are encouraging young, impressionable students to do to support their cause. “You have the right to peacefully assemble — however, there have been many situations in which college protests have escalated to the point of arrest,” one article reads, followed by telling students to prepare for jail.

Sign up for jail support if available. Even if you don’t anticipate you will need to sign up for jail support, protesting may involve interaction with law enforcement. It is best to be safe and share your emergency contacts with organizers just in case. Write important phone numbers, such as a family member or emergency legal counsel, on your arm should you need it later and not have access to your phone.”

No where do they explain the severity of arrests ending up on a person’s permanent record beyond the school, where they could be denied for future employment opportunities or worse. These people are openly encouraging students to prepare for arrest before attending a protest. They are willing to use students as human shields to promote their agenda since those pulling the strings certainly do not want to risk arrest.

The DEI courses teach that having a white savior complex is harmful, but in the case of promoting liberal policies, white knighting is encouraged. White students have been asked to take on the bulk of the legal responsibility since they believe the legal system will unfairly punish brown and black students.

Using young adults fresh out of high school as political shields is abhorrent. These students do not understand the true legal consequences that will come from the “sacrifices,” as Obama worded it, that the Democrats are encouraging them to take on to promote an agenda that they likely won’t support in a few years when they’re living in the real world.

Should the US Continue Funding Israel’s Attack on Gaza?

April 16, 2025

 

It is no secret that US politicians are beholden to their AIPAC partners. Anyone who criticizes Bibi or Israel is deemed antisemitic, as the Israeli president recently called Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson, who are the only two major conservative voices speaking out against Israeli influence. The US sent over $30 billion to fund Israel’s war on Palestine, with $12 billion coming from the Trump Administration. Fifteen Democrats voted against continuing to fund Israel’s war on Palestine, but were outnumbered as every Republican and some Democrats insisted America must continue to fund its vassal state.

Blinken no ceasefire_in_Gaza Nov 6 2023

Let me be blunt—Palestinians cannot leave Gaza without approval from Israel. Two-thirds of Gaza has been declared a “no-go” zone by Israel. At the beginning of the month, the largest displacement since October 2023 occurred when Rafah and Gaza City were forced to evacuate. The Rafah Crossing in Egypt closed in March as Egypt does not wish to coordinate with Israel, believing the nation has violated the 1979 peace treaty. Israel has closed off its Erez Crossing to fleeing Palestinians. There is no safe route out of Gaza.

 

 

As of March 2, all aid to Gaza has been completely blocked. Food prices have soared by over 450%, but no aid or resources can reach Gaza. Around 66% of households no longer have access to water. WFP reports state that over 89,000 tons of food have been left to rot at the borders of Gaza as humanitarian workers cannot enter. There is no fuel. There is no transportation. There is no option for hospitals to remain open. As of March 9, all electricity has been cut off to Gaza.

Israel has destroyed everything within 1.5 km of its border with Palestine, including farms, factories, and homes. Benjamin Netanyahu denies that there is an ongoing ethnic cleansing of Gaza.

Article II of the Genocide Convention classifies a genocide as:

  1. A mental element: the “intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such”; and
  2. A physical element, which includes the following five acts, enumerated exhaustively:
  • Killing members of the group
  • Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group
  • Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part
  • Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group
  • Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group

You can decide for yourself. The people of Gaza cannot leave. Hamas is using its own people as human shields, and they cannot escape Hamas or Israel. There is no Palestinian army to battle. The US is building one of the largest military bases in Lebanon to combat Hezbollah. We still do not know how Hamas broke through the Iron Dome. Civilians in Palestine who survive the bombings will starve, but at least governments can replace Gaza with the “Riviera of the Middle East” with the help of US taxpayers.

What’s Next

April 16, 2025

Europe Institutional Report 2025

QUESTION: Marty, This report on all of Europe is unbelievable. Something like this would cost more than $100,000 from M——-, and they have an opinion, not actual, real forecasts. Do you intend to do one for Asia and South America?

PL

ECM Cover Blue

ANSWER: This took a lot of time to put together. The risk of war in Europe is so critical that I realized this was of urgent need.  My next project is to get the ECM book out ASAP. It is 95% written. I have to do the final review. I feel this has to get out, given that the sequel to the Forecaster Movie will be in a couple of weeks.

How France Pushed Nixon to Close the Gold Window

April 15, 2025

gold reserve fort knox

There is much speculation about Germany withdrawing its gold holdings from the United States. We have seen this occur in recent history. In the 1960s, French President Charles de Gaulle began challenging the U.S. dominance in the global monetary system. Gold typically flows where capital feels safe, but in this case, France repatriated its gold from the US due to political tensions.

In 1965, French President Charles de Gaulle withdrew his ministers from the Council of the EU, thereby constituting a de facto veto over all decisions, which became known as the “Empty Chair Crisis.” Several issues regarding European political integration led to the Empty Chair Crisis. There was a push at that time to create the quasi-federalization of Europe. De Gaulle believed that national governments should move towards integration. Still, he did not agree with the Commission’s attempt to create some new super-central state or a federalized Europe, extending powers of the EU beyond national borders as we have today, which Margaret Thatcher also opposed.

President Charles de Gaulle has proposed the Fouchet Plan was a plan back in 1961 to create a new grand design for Europe. Charles de Gaulle wanted to develop a three-power directorate, consisting of France, Britain and the United States. The idea was to form a new ‘Union of States’, as an alternative to the European Communities (EC). De Gaulle feared a loss of French national influence in the EC as there was a drive to federalize Europe back then.

deGaul Charles

After the failure of the Fouchet Plan and De Gaulle’s veto of the United Kingdom’s application for EC membership, the Commission attempted to move towards integration by proposing an idea that would combine the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the European Parliament, and Commission. De Gaulle supported the creation of the CAP and favored its enactment. However, he disagreed with the Parliament’s new role, the Commission’s strength, the shift towards federalization and a central state, and the budget proposals for financing the CAP. De Gaulle made it a condition that majority voting with a right to veto must exist if France was to participate in the EC. When de Gaulle was denied a more intergovernmental Commission or voting and veto rights, the French representative left the Council of Ministers thereby creating the Empty Chair Crisis.

The Luxembourg Accord was an agreement reached in January 1966 to resolve the “Empty Chair Crisis,” which had caused a stalemate within the European Economic Community. Then on June 21, 1966, de Gaulle withdrew France in a shocking move, taking its troops from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This decision, led by French president Charles de Gaulle, complicated relations between the U.S. and Europe amidst clashing American and Communist spheres of influence. Though France remained politically in NATO, its actions cast doubt on the organization’s future as a counter to Soviet military power and control back then.

From 1963 to 1966, France secretly implemented Operation Vide-Gousset to repatriate 3,313 tons of gold reserves from the Bank of England and the New York Federal Reserve. It took over 44 boat trips and 129 flights to export the gold back to the Banque de France. Since France converted its dollar holdings into gold, the French made out well when the dollar fell during the Bretton Woods period and lost 96% of its value against gold. France then withdrew from the London Gold Pool in 1966 after recovering its gold holdings to force the US to endure heavier losses.

France’s actions caused a gold run with nations eagerly reducing their holdings at the New York Fed. West Germany reclaimed 1,200 tons of gold. Switzerland increased gold purchases from both the US and UK, but did so more discreetly than France to avoid political upheaval. By 1971, before the gold window closed, the United Kingdom requested $3 billion in gold conversions from the US. This may have been the final move that pushed Nixon to act. The Netherlands and Belgium also began exporting gold holdings from the US at this time.

US gold stock fell from $22.7 billion in 1950 to $12 billion by 1971.  On August 15, 1971, President Nixon closed the gold window, ending the convertibility of the dollar into gold. The 1971 closing of the gold window by Nixon cut the link to gold, ending Bretton Woods.

“The speculators have been waging an all-out war on the American dollar,” Nixon declared, and to “protect the dollar from the attacks of the international money speculators” would take “bold action.”

“I have directed [Treasury] Secretary Connolly to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold.”

France’s actions were a catalyst to the inevitable decision to close the gold window, but not the sole cause. Yet, as we are seeing today, the primary reason that nations would like to withdraw their holdings comes down to politics. Charles de Gaulle said that the dollar was “monumentally over-privileged” and moved to hurt the USD. The incoming German government is now looking to withdraw their holdings from the US solely due to their distaste for America.

US-China Tensions Rise – Tariffs not the Concern

April 15, 2025

TaiwanMagnified

China and the United States are accustomed to trade wars. China is handling it as a business matter, but the bigger perceived threat is America’s involvement in the Taiwan Strait. The Chinese Defense Ministry issued a statement declaring that the United States has threatened national security by providing F-16 fighter aircraft to the Philippines and Taiwan.

“The United States stands strong with our allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific, and we continue to take decisive actions to counter threats, enhance economic resilience, and advance shared interests,” a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department told Newsweek.

Strengthening Taiwan and the Philippines is part of America’s ongoing military strategy first established during the Cold War to protect the US against the Soviet Union and China. These nations are within the First Island Chain, which America perceives as its first line of defense against China if war were to occur. The Ryukyu Islands, the Japanese archipelago, Borneo, and the Kuril Islands are also included in this plan that spans from the Kamchatka Peninsula in the northeast to the Malay Peninsula. The US is prepared to enforce blockades in the event of conflict and has maintained a presence in the area.

Navy_missile_detection_ship

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has become the world’s largest surface fleet. China is prepared to deploy nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, and advanced missile systems to fight back against the US and its allies in this region.

In fact, China recently carried out a large-scale naval exercise across the First Island Chain. Around 90 vessels and fighter jets practiced patrolling this area, specifically near Taiwan. The PLA Rocket Force now has ballistic and air-breathing missiles that it believes can destroy the US Navy.

Last month, Taipei purchased 66 new F-16/D Block 70 fighter jets from the US. Manila placed an order for 16 F-16C Block 70/72 fighter jets along with other military supplies earlier in April. America maintains that it is maintaining its promises from the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, which promises to provide Taiwan with “defensive weapons.”

“The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the basic military balance in the region,” said the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency after providing military aid to the Philippines. The 1951 mutual defense treaty states that an attack on the US or the Philippines in the Pacific would propel both nations into war.

The tensions surrounding this area are far more concerning than the tariff issue. China believes that the US is threatening its sovereignty by dismissing the One China policy and attempting to deter China from overpowering the region. The US believes it is taking appropriate countermeasures to protect itself and its allies against Chinese aggression. As pressures build, both nations are prepared to boost their presence and defense spending in the region.

What Trump Does Not Understand About Trade

April 15, 2025

World Economy 1

The United States has about 330 million people, and one in every $4 spent in world trade is by American Consumers. Europe has 450 million people, but it still clings to Marxism, is highly regulated, and is very anti-entrepreneurial, so consumer spending is about $1.2 out of every $10, even with more people. Trump fails to grasp here that trade wars will NOT even the score. The global consumer market seems to be ignored. As I have explained, the Current Account, which people call the trade account, also includes all interest and dividends on stocks, bonds, and investments. In theory, if China bought 100% of the US national debt, then the perceived trade deficit from interest of $1 trillion would flow to China, and this has nothing to do with jobs or manufacturing anything.

Net Worth Per Country

German Net Worth

Let’s clarify trade. The United States has the largest economy in the world, so it’s the top contributor to global consumer spending. China would be next, followed by countries like Japan, Germany, the UK, India, and so on. Note that China is already the #2 consumer-based economy. Europe is far too Marxist, and it still clings to the old theories of Mercantilism. The average German has less net wealth than an Italian, yet they are the biggest economy. The European socialist goal has actually lowered the living standards for the whole to raise up the bottom with welfare.

In recent years, the global GDP has been around $100 trillion. Depending on the economy, consumer spending typically makes up about 60-70% of a country’s GDP. So, if we take 65% of $100 trillion, that’s about $65 trillion in global consumer spending annually in theory. Now, breaking this down by country. The US GDP is around $25 trillion. If US consumer spending is about 68% of GDP, that would be roughly $17 trillion. Therefore, the US share would be 17/65, approximately 26%. That means we have a US consumption-driven economy.

China’s GDP is around $18 trillion. However, consumer spending as a percentage of GDP is lower, maybe around 40%, because their economy is more investment—and export-driven. So 40% of $18 trillion is $7.2 trillion. That would be about 11% of the global total ($7.2T / $65T).

Let’s compare this to Japan’s GDP, which is about $4.9 trillion. Consumer spending there is higher as a percentage, maybe around 55%, so $2.7 trillion. That’s roughly 4.15% globally.

  • Germany’s GDP is around $4.2 trillion. With consumer spending at around 50% of GDP, that’s $2.1 trillion, so 3.2% globally.
  • India’s GDP is approximately $3.4 trillion. Consumer spending accounts for a larger part, maybe 60%, so the total is $2.04 trillion, which is about 3.14% of the global total.
  • The UK’s GDP is about $3.1 trillion. Consumer spending at 60% would be $1.86 trillion, so around 2.86%.
  • France’s GDP is $2.9 trillion. Consumer spending at 55% gives $1.6 trillion, about 2.46%.
  • Brazil’s GDP is $2.0 trillion. If consumer spending is 60%, that’s $1.2 trillion, so 1.85%.
  • Italy’s GDP is $2.1 trillion. Consumer spending at 60% would be $1.26 trillion, around 1.94%.
  • Canada’s GDP is $2.0 trillion. Consumer spending at 57% gives $1.14 trillion, which is 1.75%.
  • South Korea’s GDP is $1.7 trillion. Consumer spending at 50% is $0.85 trillion, so 1.3%.
  • Russia’s GDP is around $1.8 trillion. If consumer spending is 50%, that’s $0.9 trillion, about 1.38%.
  • Australia’s GDP is $1.6 trillion. Consumer spending at 55% would be $0.88 trillion, 1.35%.

Consequently, the total for these top countries is around 59.65%, leaving about 40.35% for the rest of the world. This is all based on rough estimates. Then we also have nominal GDP vs. PPP (Purchasing Power Parity). However, consumer spending in nominal terms is usually what’s used for such global comparisons, further complicating our exercise.

Another consideration: The figures I used for consumer spending as a percentage of GDP might not be accurate for each country. For example, China’s consumer spending as a percentage of GDP has been increasing but was historically lower. According to the World Bank, in 2022, China’s household final consumption expenditure was about 38% of GDP. The US was around 68%, Japan about 55%, Germany 52%, India was around 59%, UK 63%, France 54%, Brazil 64%, Italy 61%, Canada 57%, South Korea 48%. So my initial estimates were somewhat close but may need adjustment.

  • US: 25T GDP * 68% = 17T
  • China: 18T * 38% = 6.84T
  • Japan: 4.9T * 55% = 2.695T
  • Germany: 4.2T * 52% = 2.184T
  • India: 3.4T * 59% = 2.006T
  • UK: 3.1T * 63% = 1.953T
  • France: 2.9T * 54% = 1.566T
  • Brazil: 2.0T * 64% = 1.28T
  • Italy: 2.1T * 61% = 1.281T
  • Canada: 2.0T * 57% = 1.14T
  • South Korea: 1.7T * 48% = 0.816T
  • Russia: 1.8T * 52% = 0.936T (assuming 52%)
  • Australia: 1.6T * 55% = 0.88T
  • Spain: 1.4T * 58% = 0.812T

So total consumer spending from these 14 countries is approximately $41.389 trillion out of about $65 trillion globally.

Now, converting each country’s consumer spending to a percentage of global:

  • US: 17 / 65 = 26.15%
  • China: 6.84 / 65 ≈ 10.52%
  • Japan: 2.695 / 65 ≈ 4.15%
  • Germany: 2.184 / 65 ≈ 3.36%
  • India: 2.006 / 65 ≈ 3.09%
  • UK: 1.953 / 65 ≈ 3.00%
  • France: 1.566 / 65 ≈ 2.41%
  • Brazil: 1.28 / 65 ≈ 1.97%
  • Italy: 1.281 / 65 ≈ 1.97%
  • Canada: 1.14 / 65 ≈ 1.75%
  • South Korea: 0.816 / 65 ≈ 1.26%
  • Russia: 0.936 / 65 ≈ 1.44%
  • Australia: 0.88 / 65 ≈ 1.35%
  • Spain: 0.812 / 65 ≈ 1.25%
  • Others: 36.3%

Please remember that these percentages are estimates of global consumer spending by country based on GDP and consumption patterns.  The United States is the largest consumer-based economy in the world, and about 26% of total world spending involves the American consumer. China is only 10.5%, and Japan is at 4.1%. Europe comes in at around 12%.

In summary, China is actively trying to build a more consumer-based economy, with policies and trends supporting this shift. However, structural and demographic challenges might slow this transition into 2028. The progress is evident, but it’s a work in progress. After 2032, they hold the potential to surpass the United States as the financial capital of the world. The problem in the United States is that the Democrats keep trying to oppress the economy like Europe, imposing socialist goals that are not economically efficient.

Key Evidence of China’s Transition:

  • Rising Consumption Share of GDP:
    • Household consumption contributed 53% of GDP in 2023, up from ~35% in 2010. While still lower than the U.S. (~68-70%), this marks significant growth.
    • Services and high-tech industries are expanding, reflecting demand for healthcare, education, and entertainment.
  • Policy Shifts:
    • “Dual Circulation” Strategy:
    • Emphasizes domestic consumption (internal circulation) alongside international trade, reducing reliance on exports.
  • Social Reforms:
    • Efforts to strengthen social safety nets (pensions, healthcare) aim to lower household savings rates, freeing income for spending.
  • Urbanization and Middle-Class Growth:
    • Over 60% of China’s population now lives in cities, fostering a consumer class with higher disposable income.
  • E-Commerce and Digital Economy:
    • China leads globally in e-commerce (e.g., Alibaba, JD.com) and digital payments, facilitating consumer spending. The digital economy accounts for ~40% of GDP.

Challenges to a Consumer-Driven Model:

  • Structural Imbalances:
    • Investment and exports still dominate (e.g., state-led infrastructure, real estate). Transition requires rebalancing toward the private sector and services.
  • Household debt
    • has risen to ~62% of GDP (2023), potentially constraining spending.
  • Demographic and Social Factors:
    • Aging Population: By 2035, 30% of citizens will be over 60, likely increasing savings and reducing consumption.
    • Income Inequality: Rural-urban gaps and uneven wealth distribution limit broad-based consumption growth.
  • Geopolitical and Economic Risks:
    • Trade tensions and global demand volatility (e.g., post-COVID, U.S.-China decoupling) pressure China to prioritize domestic demand.
  • Real estate sector
    • Slowdowns could dampen consumer confidence.

Conclusion 2

China is deliberately building a consumer-based economy through policy reforms, urbanization, and digital innovation, rejecting the European mercantilist economic philosophy. While progress is evident, structural hurdles, such as reliance on investment and aging demographics, mean the transition will be gradual but ongoing. The government’s success in addressing these challenges will determine the pace and sustainability of this shift. China’s economy remains a hybrid model, blending consumption growth with traditional drivers like state investment.

Current Accout

The current account is a key component of a country’s balance of payments, recording international transactions in goods, services, income, and transfers. It consists of four main components:

  1. Trade in Goods (Visible Trade):
    • Exports and imports of tangible products (e.g., machinery, vehicles, electronics).
    • The balance of trade in goods is often referred to as the “merchandise trade balance.”
  2. Trade in Services (Invisible Trade):
    • Exports and imports of intangible services (e.g., tourism, financial services, education, consulting, transportation).
    • Combined with trade in goods, this forms the trade balance (goods and services).
  3. Primary Income (Income Flows):
    • Cross-border income from investments and employment:
      • Investment income: Dividends, interest, profits from foreign investments (e.g., dividends from overseas stocks).
      • Compensation of employees: Wages, salaries, or benefits earned by workers in a foreign country (e.g., remittances from expatriates).
  4. Secondary Income (Current Transfers):
    • One-way transfers where no goods, services, or assets are exchanged in return:
      • Remittances: Money sent by migrants to their home country.
      • Foreign aid/grants: Government transfers (e.g., disaster relief, development aid).
      • Pensions, gifts, or donations: Transfers between individuals or organizations.

A Trade War based on just the gross of the Current Account does NOT reflect our trade deficit or surplus.

Foreign investors overall own roughly 10-20% of Manhattan’s high-end residential properties (e.g., condos), with Europeans constituting a significant but minority share of this group. For example, if Europeans account for 30-40% of foreign-owned properties, their stake might be 3-8% of Manhattan’s luxury residential market. While exact figures are elusive, Europeans likely own 3-7% of Manhattan’s total real estate, with higher concentrations in luxury residential and prime commercial sectors. This is only an estimate and not definitive. Any income, such as rents, on that property will flow out through the current account and will appear as a trade deficit when it has NOTHING to do with trade.

As of 2023, approximately 23-24% of the total U.S. national debt is held by foreign entities. This calculation is based on foreign holdings of around $7.4 trillion out of $31.4 trillion at the time. Therefore, there is about $1 trillion in interest expenditures. Thus, about $230+ billion is flowing out through the current account that has nothing to do with trade. The major holders of US national debt include Japan, China, and the United Kingdom.

Understanding these components is now CRITICAL in the middle of a trade war. The sale of US debt will go through the capital account, but it will reduce the interest paid to foreigners that go through the current account, creating the illusion of a trade deficit. I disagree with Trump’s formulas, and the risk of a permanent trade war with China is now assured unless he gets on a private phone call. You cannot make public demands against China, for then they cannot back down based on their culture.

Institutional Report on the Europe – All Countries

April 15, 2025

Europe Institutional Report 2025

Our Institutional Report covering Europe’s countries with their forecasts generally out to 2032 has been a monumental effort. We greatly appreciate your patience, but this is vital for the decision-making for future investment in Europe. Things are certainly different from the past. Countries like Sweden and Switzerland, which had been neutral during previous world wars, have surrendered their neutrality and will not prove a safe harbor for capital during this conflict. Sweden has joined NATO and even sent jets to Poland. Switzerland gave up all foreigners with accounts and seized over $8 billion of accounts belonging to Russians, abandoning its historic traditions.

Europe Institutional Report 2025 Croatia

This report covers countries that nobody else even covers.

This also addresses the War with Russia & The eventual breakup of the EU itself

577 Pages fully illustrated with Charts and Arrays Per County, covering Currency and share markets

This Report is massive, and the price is $10,000 per institution.

(Please email to let us know how many reports you may need)


Europe Institutional Report 2025 Index 1

Europe Institutional Report 2025 Index 2Europe Institutional Report 2025 Index 3

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