QUESTION: You said the computer does not support a bullish view of Trump taking office. Do you know why the computer is showing so many indexes are rolling over to the downside?

John

ANSWER: I strongly suggest that this is the time to pay close attention to Socrates, for this clearly shows that something is seriously wrong. This is not confined to the United States alone. So review all the markets that you are interested in. This may be critical. We have a sovereign debt crisis. We added all the spreads between France and other European member states. We have confidence in government starting to decline and instability rising among various governments.

Most indices and markets we look at are starting to roll over, even Bitcoin, which has a target and Directional Change here in December. The global capital markets are not booming with euphoria thanks to the Trump victory. I hope this has nothing to do with the NEOCONs making a third attempt to eliminate their greatest threat to their power.

I am concerned about this usurpation of the state’s military power in Congress’ newly unveiled annual defense bill that could soon be signed into law. The final version of this year’s National Defense Authorization Act is removing the National Guard Air defense to the Federal power. This is over the objections of some 55 state and territorial governors. WHY? This seems to be inspired by the threat of the States being able to resist the Feds. This is not a good sign.

When we look at Russia, we also see December as a turning point and a move into February in the immediate future. The risk remains that NATO is trying desperately to create war with Russia before Trump takes office. My concern here is that they will create a false flag to blame Russia, just as the CIA proposed Project Northwoods to justify invading Cuba. We see a Directional Change for Russia next week.

LAST TWO WEEKS OF DECEMBER

Something is just not right. The capital is pinching up a change in the wind. So, Pay attention to Socrates at this point in time.

Argentina has posted its first budget surplus in 123 after President Javir Milei took office and demanded an abrupt halt to government spending. Governments worldwide should carefully take note.

Milei proudly announced:

“The deficit was the root of all our evils — without it, there’s no debt, no emission, no inflation. Today, we have a sustained fiscal surplus, free of default, for the first time in 123 years. This historic achievement came from the greatest adjustment in history and reducing monetary emission to zero. A year ago, a degenerate printed 13% of GDP to win an election, fueling inflation. Today, monetary emission is a thing of the past.”

Economic emissions should become a coined phrase as it is far more harmful than anything government is currently trying to conquer.

?? MILEI: ARGENTINA ENDS DEFICIT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 123 YEARS

“The deficit was the root of all our evils—without it, there’s no debt, no emission, no inflation.

Today, we have a sustained fiscal surplus, free of default, for the first time in 123 years.

This historic… https://t.co/uszEgPd493 pic.twitter.com/nt5jJGQM1V

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) December 11, 2024

Argentina was forced to stop printing money back in 2022 after inflation surpassed 60% in July of that year, and their currency became utterly worthless. The central bank raised rates to nearly 70% to no avail as government continued borrowing. The problem with socialism is that they eventually run out of other people’s money. The government was spending over $6 million daily on social programs, but the poverty rate continued to rise, and around 57% of the working population could not find jobs. There were mass strikes since their money could not fund basic goods. Even if they could find employment, what incentive would the people have when the currency is worthless? Since they had no way to pay off their debt, the government simply continued to print more and devalued its own currency in the process.

Javir Milei was called a right-wing extremist for denouncing socialism and promising to curtail government spending and social programs. He understood that socialism COULD NOT WORK. It took President Javier Milei of Argentina a mere two months to push his nation into a surplus. The Economy Ministry declared that the government posted a $589 million surplus back in April, the first surplus in a decade. Milei referred to the government as “a criminal organization,” and recognized that the public sector needed to shrink as 341,477 people were on the government payroll when he took office.

Referred to as the “gnocchi” after the Italian pasta dish that is commonly served on the 29th of the month, the same day as payday, are the individuals in Argentina on the government payroll who do absolutely nothing. They were installed by politicians in exchange for favors. Critics claim he is firing at random, but the Milei Administration has assured the public that selecting those who will be laid off will be an “extremely surgical task, done so as not to make mistakes.”

Milei has already eliminated useless agencies such as the Ministry of Culture, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Labor, and Ministry of Social Development. In his words, Argentina is currently a poor country and cannot afford these departments that do absolutely nothing to improve the nation’s economic conditions. He has cut the Cabinet in half and no one has noticed a difference.

Milei removed price controls and devalued the currency by 54%. Transport and fuel subsidies were eliminated. It was noted that these measures would at first hurt PPP before the economy could begin to heal. Imagine inflation cooling in February at 276% — the situation was dire. The International Monetary Fund awarded Argentina a $44 billion credit program. The nation is beginning to stabilize very slowly, and it took decades of deteriorating economic conditions for someone to come in and clean house.

He has called his measures a form of “shock therapy” for Argentina’s economy. Milei agreed to devalue the nation’s peso from around 350 to 800 pesos per USD. He has eliminated quotas on imports and exports and removed the licensing that was difficult to obtain. There is a temporary rise in taxes for non-agricultural trade that brings it on par with industry standards. Transportation and energy subsidies have been eliminated.

Milei is the same man who stood before the crowd at Davos and criticized their glorification of socialism. “The main leaders of the Western world have abandoned the model of freedom for different versions of what we call collectivism,” Milei said to a hostile crowd at Davos. “We’re here to tell you that collectivist experiments are never the solution to the problems that afflict the citizens of the world—rather they are the root cause.”

Those in charge want us to believe that capitalism equates to greed while collectivism is seen as a form of social justice but, of course, requires the money of others. Free enterprise is under constant attack, and Milei is one of the only world leaders fighting for its existence. “Social justice is not just. It doesn’t contribute to the general well-being,” Milei said to Davos, citing that socialism is “intrinsically unfair” and forces the state to attack the people for taxes. “Can any of us say that they voluntarily pay taxes?” he asked the crowd.

He was once called the Donald Trump of Argentina. We can hope that Donald Trump will take swift action to reduce government spending. DOGE appointee Elon Musk congratulated Argentina’s president when news of the budget surplus broke. Unfortunately, America is too far in the hole to recover by slashing programs or cutting government. It would be a massive step forward but our deficit has been permitted to run wild for too long to be tamed.

US-Canada relations under the Trump Administration are beginning on tumultuous footing. Trump has promised to slap Canada with 25% tariffs on ALL imports if it fails to curb illegal immigration and drug trade from the northern border. Trudeau is now threatening to retaliate with tariffs of his own. The Bank of Canada has factored in these threats in its most recent decision to raise rates by 50 bps to 3.25%.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that the new US administration presents “a major new uncertainty.” The markets had already priced in rate cuts ahead of the tariff threats, especially as inflation has allegedly reached the 2% target. This is the fifth time the Bank of Canada has cut rates in only six months after shedding 175 bps total. Yet, the central bank is not taking these tariff threats lightly because they could have a major impact on trade and the overall GDP. Macklem believes the bank can now take a “more gradual approach to monetary policy IF the economy evolves broadly as expected.”

The 25% tariff would send shockwaves through the Canadian economy. Around 77% of Canada’s exports are sent to the US, totaling $548 billion in 2023. The auto ($82 billion), energy ($166 billion), and manufacturing sectors would be particularly vulnerable due to the large cross-border trade. Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, and New Brunswick send over 70% of their exports to the US. Reports state that up to 2.4 million jobs tied to these industries, or 12% of the Canadian workforce, could be at risk.

Trump mocked Trudeau last month during a Mar-a-Lago dinner party after suggesting Canada could become the 51^st state if it insisted on relying so heavily on the US. This week, Trump reiterated the now ongoing joke on Truth Social. “It was a pleasure to have dinner the other night with Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada. I look forward to seeing the Governor again soon so that we may continue our in depth talks on Tariffs and Trade, the results of which will be truly spectacular for all!” Trump said in a social media post. While it may be humorous to mock Trudeau, these tariffs are a serious matter.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he believes Canada should retaliate with tariffs if appropriate. “But hopefully we’ll never go down that road. It’s not worth it and we’re so much stronger together. The last country the president should be worrying about is its closest ally and friend, Canada,” he said.

No one will win when using world trade as a political tool. The US economy will also feel the burden of these tariffs, and the supply chain will face disruptions. Unsettling trade with a key partner is not the way to solve the migration or illegal drug trade crises.

COMMENT: Thank you for your independent work. Nobody predicted the 2024 election would be a landslide other than you. But absolutely nobody has even thought about the Democratic Party collapsing. You have proven that a computer can predict the future impartially and you make it obvious that you always separate your personal opinion from the computer. It’s not hard to see why the government wanted you silenced.

It would be best if you were on Rogan and Tucker. I understand mainstream media, but they should be beating down your door.

Your work will live on.

DF

ANSWER: As a trader, forget what you are looking at. Look at the blue line. It peaked before the Civil War over state’s rights, and the Federalists became extinct. The Party of Jefferson then split into the Democrats vs. Republicans (South vs. North) over slavery. The Democrats scored their lowest with the Civil War. They were again against federalism with the Panic of 1873 and peaked with the Panic of 1893 when they were the Silver Democrats advocating the abandonment of the gold standard.

The rise of Marxism began during the Long Depression (1873-1899), which was accelerated thanks to the Democrats overvaluing silver, which led to the flight of gold from the United States. This is when we say the Sherman Anti-Trust Act, which was against companies merging because they would reduce their workforce. It was also this economic depression that wiped out Philadelphia as the financial capital of the United States and J.P. Morgan would move that to New York City with his innovation. From this highly volatile period, what emerged of socialism/Marxism rose to the surface.

A major protest became known as Coxley’s Army, which marched upon Washington following the  Panic of 1893. This march led to the idea of socialism, for FDR took most of the demands first argued by Coxley that the government should create jobs for the unemployed. This led to the Progressive Movement of Teddy Roosevelt.

Coxley’s March became the subject of Lyman Baum’s Wizard of Oz – We’re off to see the Wizard the Wonderful Wizard of Oz (Congress) following the Yellow Brick Road (gold standard & austerity). This economic event created profound political change. And just as a note, the rule of law NEVER applies during civil unrest, as we have witnessed with the January 6th event, and it certainly is abandoned during periods of war. To shut down Coxley’s March, he was arrested not for free speech but for walking on the grass of the Capitol. The rule of law means nothing when governments are in the crosshairs.

Even Frover Cleveland (1837-1908) was the Democratic President during the Panic of 1893. He spoke out against his own party’s unsound finances. The Democrats have NEVER stood for the country. They have always shifted back and forth between ideas that merely gain their power regardless of the soundness of the policy for the nation.

Despite the unsound finance that virtually bankrupted the country, the Democrats only cared about winning. This caused the Panic of 1896 when JP Morgan had to bail out the Treasury with a $100 million gold loan. Even Puck Magazine joked about how America was virtually bankrupt, drowning in overvalued silver thanks to the bribes the silver miners paid to the Democrats.

In 1904, Democrats Parker/Davis got the fewest votes of any Democrat until Al Smith in 1928. This led them to usurp the ideas of progressivism, abandoning the inflationary policies of overvaluing silver relative to gold and becoming the champions of Marxism. They secured so few votes that I do not recall their names ever being discussed in history class. They looked around and took the progressive ideas of Teddy Roosevelt, who won in 1907 but then lost.

The Democrats adopted Marxism and was now their new mantra after the lost on slavery, then ending the gold standard, so now Marxism was the answer. They became Progressives, adopting that rising star from the Progressive Party. They pushed for the Marxist Agenda of income tax and then ran on bribing voters, promising to steal from the rich and give it to their supporters.

Coxley’s protest demanded that the government create jobs. Roosevelt took that idea, and it became the Works Progress Administration (WPA), an ambitious employment and infrastructure program during the darkest days of the Great Depression following the 1931 Sovereign Debt defaults of most of the world. Over eight years, the WPA put roughly 8.5 million Americans to work building schools, hospitals, roads, and other public works. The WPA also sponsored projects in the arts—the agency employed tens of thousands of actors, musicians, writers, and other artists.

Roosevelt altered the idea of the Silver Democrats insofar as abandoning gold entirely. Instead, FDR listened to George Warren and adopted a two-tier gold standard whereby gold would only serve as an international medium of exchange – not domestically.

The year 1935 marked the end of silver dollars and the replacement of the Silver Certificate.

In 1934, $500, $1,000, $5,000, and $10,000 bills were printed. That was the last of them, and these notes brought substantial premiums over the face value. Thereafter, socialism kicked in, and why print large denomination notes when people could hide money from the government’s eyes?

The Democrats have never really stood for anything definitive. They have switched their focus only to win. This has been their downfall. This WOKE agenda has been another issue like the Silver Democrats. They refuse to actually look at the nation as a whole and choose just the middle of the road.

Consequently, the party is doomed. Many have been abandoning the Democratic Party in droves, and they are too compromised to come to grips with their lack of common sense. The fragmentation will continue, and they will purge the WOKE proponents as they did with the Silver Miners that sent the US Treasury into virtual bankruptcy.

Many mistakenly look to the stock market as the leading indication of economic security. The true culprit is the DEBT market, not the stock market, that leads to depressions and recessions. A recession, in comparison to a depression, is merely a minor impact that could be isolated to one nation. Unemployment will typically rise up to 10% in a recession, whereas a depression could see a 25%+ turn in unemployment. A lack of work leads to civil unrest and upheaval. Depressions are never isolated to one nation as they spread as a contagion throughout the world.

You could take the stock market down 30%, even 40%, and still not create a depression. Yet, if you undermine government debt by far less, you will create a severe economic downturn. Look to the banks. Under law, banks are required to use government debt as a reserve. Undermining government debt simply wipes out the banking industry as we have historically seen when bank after bank is forced to shutter.

During the Great Depression, sovereign defaults began in Europe. Look at what happened in 1931 when Europe defaulted on its debt, as did Asia and so forth since depressions become contagions. This pushed the dollar higher but not the US share market. Note that the dollar rose in value during World War I, the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis, and again for World War II. During those waves of capital flows, the bulk of that capital always moved into government bonds.

This is an oversimplified version of this message but you can read more on the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis throughout this website. Governments default and then that often leads to a regime change. The incoming regime will simply say, “Oh, that was the debt of the last government and we need not pay.” Listen, the stock market could plunge 20% and the banks would be OK. But if you saw the same in the debt market, in particular sovereign debt, you’re in serious trouble.

Yet another politician has come out to abandon the Democratic Party, which has begun breaking off into factions in recent years. Donald Trump himself was once a Democrat, as were RFK, Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard, and countless others. Rep. Susan Valdes of Florida has become the latest politician to switch affiliation from Democrat to Republican.

Valdes explained that her affiliation with the Democratic Party was simply out of habit. We see this throughout the nation as people who have historically voted blue or red will continue to vote on party lines even if the ideology has changed. “I have done so as a Democrat partly out of habit — I come from a family of Democrats — and partly because I believed the Democrats were the party most concerned with the working families I represent,” Valdes stated.

The Democratic Party is no longer the anti-establishment, anti-war party that it was decades ago. The false virtue signaling to specific groups while ostracizing others is not the same Democratic Party of love and peace that opposed the Vietnam draft. Countless citizens and politicians simply vote along party lines per tradition without realizing that the ideology has completely changed.

“I’m tired of being the party of protesting when I got into politics to be part of the party of progress. I know that I won’t agree with my fellow Republican House members on every issue, but I know that in their caucus, I will be welcomed and treated with respect,” Valdes continued.

Florida has never had more Republicans in the House of Representatives. Some may say this large switch happened during COVID when people flocked to the Sunshine State to flee oppressive COVID laws. Especially with remote work becoming commonplace, people then had the ability to move to states that aligned with their viewpoints.

The Democrats have refused to acknowledge that their entire Marxist agenda failed. Bidenomics failed. The Build Back Better movement is failing and the people are not sold on the globalist regimes. The left bought their personal political narrative that demonizing Trump would indeed send people running into their arms. Trump’s victory sent shockwaves through the Democratic Party once they realized that all their propaganda had FAILED – the people still preferred Trump over the current status quo. Americans are not happy with the leftist regime.

Then we had countless Dems come out like Fetterman and Sanders who blamed their own party for becoming completely out of touch with the people. The uniform group thought that the Democrats demanded is what will destroy their party, for like a trader who loses and blames everyone else and continues to make the same decisions, his thinking leads to his bankruptcy by refusing to look at himself in the mirror. This is the fate of the Democratic Party that will eventually cease to exist.

The migrant crisis in Europe is far worse than the mainstream media will let on. It began in 2015 when then Chancellor Angela Merkel opened the door to Syrian refugees. That door has remained open, and a new wave of unaccompanied men who do not understand or respect Western women have made the country a dangerous place to live or even travel.

A 20-year-old American woman traveling alone in Germany was sexually assaulted by a 64-year-old Eritrean migrant at Kaiserslautern train station. After exchanging words, the woman pulled out a knife and struck her attacker with a fatal blow to the heart. She claims she was acting on pure instinct, and video surveillance verifies her claims. However, proof of intent to kill is not required by German law to be tried.

“The public prosecutor’s office does not believe that the stabbing was justified by self-defense,” a spokesperson for the prosecutor’s office told reporters. Authorities have charged her with bodily harm rather than manslaughter, but still, she now could face up to 10 years imprisonment.

Should she have allowed this man to proceed? The German authorities would have preferred it that way as they have been ignoring the wave of migrant violence against women for many years. In 2015, over 1,200 girls across Germany were sexually assaulted by 2,000 men.

Initially, there was dead silence from officials and the press was not reporting the truth after joining the cover-up conspiracy. Only after reports hit the internet (we even had clients contacting us) did the truth begin to surface.  The police were even told to remove the word “RAPE” from all official reports on the Cologne attacks. Police Chief Wolfgang Albers, age 60, was fired after criticizing the police’s lack of involvement during the incident.

Now, foreigners account for 41% of all crimes in Germany after rising by 23% in 2022 and 19% in 2023. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has vowed to address this matter and increase border patrol measures. On the other hand, he says Germany has an international obligation to permit foreigners to seek asylum. How are women to protect themselves when the law is skewed in favor of migrants? The law will not permit a woman to use weapons in self-defense if her attacker is unarmed, even if he could easily overpower her. Every country led by such leftist ideology is facing a similar, dangerous situation.

The National Guard turned 100 years old in 2003, and Washington is seeking to usurp state’s rights and federalize the National Guard to circumvent the Constitution and to use them against the people of the United States in true tyrannical fashion. During the American Revolution, the troops were predominantly state militia. That is the origin of the National Guard, and the Second Amendment was actually intended to secure our liberty from federalism.

U.S. Senator Charles W. F. Dick, a Major General in the Ohio National Guard and the chair of the Committee on the Militia, sponsored the first attempt to control state militias. In 1903, he moved the 57th U.S. Congress to transform militias into the National Guard. Under this legislation, passed on January 21st, 1903, they transformed the organized state militias by giving them federal funding and requiring them to conform to the Regular Army organization within five years. The act also required National Guard units to attend twenty-four drills and five days of annual training per year for the first time. In return for the increased federal funding, the federal government took oversight control, subjecting them to inspection by Regular Army officers to verify they met federal standards.

However, the authority to call out the National Guard rested with the states. What is going on now is Washington’s attempt to usurp total control of the National Guard. They will use that status to send troops domestically against civilians, and the army is prohibited from acting domestically. This is a serious threat to the liberty of every citizen. The National Armed Services Committee is clearly preparing for the rise in civil unrest and wants to be able to send troops against the people. This is overthrowing the state’s rights and the separation of powers.

The Whiskey Rebellion was a violent tax protest in the United States in 1791 extending into 1794 during the presidency of George Washington. The “whiskey tax” was the first tax imposed on a domestic product by the newly formed federal government. President Washington was confronted with what appeared to be an armed insurrection in western Pennsylvania. He was determined to establish the federal government as supreme authority. He understood that this would not be popular among the public. He called a cabinet meeting, and all but one said attack.

Before troops could be raised, the Militia Act of 1792 required a justice of the United States Supreme Court to certify that law enforcement was beyond the control of local authorities. On August 4, 1794, Justice James Wilson (1742-1798) was appointed to the Supreme Court. Wilson’s most noted case was Chisholm v. Georgia, which found that the Court could hear a lawsuit against a state by a citizen of another state. (The Eleventh Amendment soon superseded this decision.) Wilson delivered his opinion on August 4th, 1794, that western Pennsylvania was in a state of rebellion and allowed Washington to attack American citizens.

Washington had been concerned that such a show of force would support the deep division, reinforcing the growing Anti-Federalist fears of government overreach. Pennsylvania Governor Thomas Mifflin agreed and even wrote to Washington on August 5th, 1794, that he “feared that a military force brought into the region would also alienate the peaceable citizens of the region and cause more discontent there.”A staunch Federalist judge, John Wilkins, remarked, “The people engaged in the present opposition to government were not an inconsiderable mob. Rather, they are a respectable and powerful combination…of some of the most respectable people in the country.”

There was a fight for the supremacy of the Federalist movement against state’s rights. This is what the Democrats have adopted – federalism dictating policies to the states in this one-size-fits-all approach. Washington himself commanded insurgents in western Pennsylvania to disperse by September 1st. This is what we are witnessing with this covert move by the National Armed Services Committee. This is all about seizing federal control and effectively disarming the states directly, no different than outlawing guns individually.

I must report that unity is forming among the 55 governors of all states and territories who have joined together to urge Congress to reject Legislative Proposal 480, which would allow specified Air National Guard units to be reassigned to the U.S. Space Force without the governors’ legally required approval. This is a usurpation of power, and it will allow the Federal Government to wage war against the citizens of the United States directly. Some have argued that Biden was trying to circumvent the Posse Comitatus Act (18 U.S.C. § 1385, original at 20 Stat. 152) signed on June 18, 1878, that limits the powers of the federal government in the use of federal military personnel to enforce domestic policies within the United States. This usurpation of the National Guard is to completely circumvent this act, pretending that the National Guard is not the federal military, yet they seek to seize control from the state governors and order them, like Washington in the Whiskey Rebellion, to attack Americans on the streets. HELLO – this is civil war!

ANY POLITICIAN WHO SUPPORTS THIS ACTION SHOULD BE STRIPPED OF ALL AUTHORITY AND REMOVED FROM OFFICE