PRIVATE BLOG – Gold & the Pullback

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COMMENT FROM LONDON: Macron and Starmer are fucking crazy; Starmer yesterday said, “Russia is scared of our nuclear weapons,” like Russia couldn’t vaporise the entire UK with three missiles ffs, headline this morning “UK could destroy 36 Russian cities with just one of our nuclear submarines,” these people are totally insane…. What the hell is their game ?

B

REPLY: I honestly do not know. They are listening to these Neocons, and they could care less if Europe vanishes as long as they take Russia with them. Putin can detonate a 100mg nuke in the English Channel from a sub, and the tidal wave will wipe out Britain entirely. I have never witnessed such complete incompetence among the pretend leaders of a nation than the crop we have in Europe right now. Of course, Putin has to now prepare for war with NATO, and I can tell you that China and North Korea will join Russia full-on.

I am so tired of the phone calls. I do not know what people expect me to say.

Yes, my son, nuke that city, say three Hail Marys and 5 Our Fathers,

and you will be forgiven?

I did not sign up to be a psychotherapist.

I am not the Oracle of Delphi

The Computer Has NEVER been Wrong. Europe Will Lose!!!

It will NOT Change Its Mind

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, You are widely followed here in Indonesia, being one of the few analysts who can cover our nation and the only one covering us objectively. Socrates has been right again with the forecast for rising volcanic activity in 2025. Indonesia has 270 million people, but we are on the ring of fire. We have 120 active volcanos. We met years ago when you came to Bali. The Mount Lewotobi Laki Laki volcano in south-central Indonesia has erupted, sending an ash column 26,200 feet high. This volcanic cycle seems to be active everywhere.

VW

REPLY: Unfortunately, this cycle is seeing much more volcanic activity than in decades and perhaps centuries. My concern is that a VEI6 or more significant can cause famine and serious global cooling. The Little Ice Age was certainly magnified by the eruption of a volcano in Peru. This resulted in widespread famine in Asia, Europe, and Russia.

President Donald Trump is urging the Fed to cut interest rates to offset the inflation that will be caused by tariffs. “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump wrote. “Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!” Reducing interest rates will NOT offset inflation caused by tariffs because the two variables are not directly related.

Tariffs increase costs due to supply, while interest rates influence demand. When tariffs are imposed, the cost of imported goods rise, increasing prices for consumers and businesses. This cannot be offset by lowering interest rates, as rate cuts stimulate borrowing and investment rather than addressing price increases caused by trade barriers. In fact, lower interest rates can exacerbate the problem by weakening the currency, making imports even more expensive, further fueling inflation.

Historically, tariffs have led to stagflation—rising prices combined with economic stagnation—rather than the demand-driven inflation central banks typically target. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff of the 1930s, for example, severely disrupted global trade and worsened the Great Depression. Similarly, Trump’s trade war with China during his first term did not lead to any economic boom but instead forced businesses to adjust supply chains, raising costs for consumers.

Lowering interest rates in this environment offsets capital flows, decreasing confidence and weakening the purchasing power of the currency. The result is a cycle in which consumers face higher costs while the central bank loses the little control it has to manage inflation. The idea that the Fed could actually control inflation is based on outdated Keynesian economics concepts that were drafted when the US had a balanced budget. Now, most demand comes from the government itself, the largest borrower and creator of debt. This is why Jerome Powell spoke out against Joe Biden for creating the largest spending package in US history and multiplying the public sector. The government will never pay off its debts, and the interest payments on that debt alone have been astronomical.

Relying on rate cuts to counter tariff inflation ignores the root cause of the issue. The real solution lies in reducing trade barriers and not relying on tariffs to increase the demand for domestically made goods.

The radical left is extremely dangerous when angered. The intense hatred of Elon Musk has caused a worldwide pandemonium where misplaced raged is directed at Tesla owners. Tesla was once celebrated by the left for championing EV technology, and perhaps favored by those on the left. Now, we are seeing countless daily occurrences of vandalism that has become so prominent that the FBI has launched an investigation.

“Our teams are actively working on the Tesla incidents and the swatting incidents, along with our other responsibilities to keep the Homeland safe,” bureau deputy director Dan Bongino said. Attorney General Pam Bondi said there will be “severe consequences” for those found guilty of violating Tesla vehicles. The government is NOT protecting Elon here as they are desperate to protect the public from the radical left who faced no consequences the last time they attempted to burn cities to the ground.

People are routinely spraying Nazi swastikas on Tesla vehicles if not outright setting them on fire. Some have begun placing bumper stickers on their vehicles, saying that they do not support Musk and drive their vehicle in shame. The left believes this should be celebrated. “The Daily Show” audience recently erupted in applause after someone mentioned throwing Molotov cocktails at Cybertrucks to oppose DOGE.

Unlike the average American who cannot afford to simply abandon their second-most expense purchase behind a home, politicians are pretending to virtue signal by giving away their Teslas. The same politicians who cheered Tesla’s climate friendly nature are now subtly urging the people to continue this madness.

Arizona Democratic senator Mark Kelly made a spectacle of abandoning his Tesla. “Every time I get in this car in the last 60 days or so, it reminds me of just how much damage Elon Musk and Donald Trump is doing to our country.” Kelly previously exchanged words with Elon over X regarding his stance on Ukraine and talks about Musk at every opportunity. “Elon Musk kind of turned out to be an asshole, and I don’t want to drive a car built and designed by an asshole,” Kelly said, stating that driving a Tesla is akin to driving a billboard for Musk.

There is a reason why Democrats are not outraged by these attacks on US citizens who are being targeted for no valid reason. I will not list the website, but someone took it upon themselves to create a map that outlines every reported Tesla owner across the US. The cursor of the website is a Molotov cocktail, and the site is urging violence against anyone who does or cannot sell their vehicle immediately.

Innocent people are going to be seriously hurt by these attacks. The right did not go around burning down liquor stores and bars amid the Bud Light scandal. When META was found to be in cahoots with the Democrats, openly interfering in the election, we did not see violence against that company or those with META accounts, for example. Conservatives did not call in bomb threats on Target stores when they were selling trans swimwear for children.

All of this is absolutely outrageous. These same deranged radicals, if employed, unknowingly have 401Ks with Tesla investments. Nearly all of the Teslas on the road were purchased before Elon Musk entered the political arena. Shame on the political leaders who do not condemn these reckless acts of violence against innocent people.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expects inflation to be “transitory,” a word reminiscent of America’s situation three years ago when the Fed repeatedly urged the public to underplay inflation as it would improve. Conditions did not improve, as we later learned, and the Fed will have a hard time convincing the markets that this time is different.

“It can be the case that it’s appropriate sometimes to look through inflation, if it’s going to go away quickly, without action by us, if it’s transitory,” Powell said. “That can be the case in the case of tariff inflation. I think that would depend on the tariff inflation moving through fairly quickly and, critically, as well on inflation expectations being well anchored.”

Consumer spending is crucial to the US economy. Retail spending in February increased 0.2% after declining 1.2% in January, according to the Department of Commerce, but fell beneath predictions for a 0.6% monthly increase. Total sales from December 2024 to February 2025 rose 3.7% from the same period one year ago, but growth remains minimal.

People do not spend when confidence is low. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey indicated a 10% decline in consumer sentiment this March compared to February, citing a “high level of uncertainty.”

The National Federation of Retailers stated that February sales had slowed as a direct result of tariff threats. “Consumer spending dipped slightly again in February due to the combination of harsh winter weather and declining consumer confidence driven by tariffs, concerns about rising unemployment and policy uncertainty,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Unease about the probability of inflation and paying higher prices for non-discretionary goods has the value-conscious consumer spending less and saving more. But for the moment, year-over-year gains reflect an economy with strong fundamentals.”

Retail is America’s largest employer in the public sector, adding $5.3 trillion to annual GDP. One in four Americans, 55 million people, are employed through this crucial sector.

Naturally, the cost of living is causing much upheaval as people spend more on less and save what they can. It would be ignorant to say that tariff disputes do not have a direct negative impact on the economy. Powell likely coined a new term, “tariff inflation,” which I expect we will hear more frequently.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Thank you for speaking the truth about the timeline of this war with Ukraine. Every news story here in Europe says the same thing. Russia was unprovoked. Never in my entire life have I ever witnessed such outright lies by the press. I do not see the Europeans rising up to overthrow these governments. We are sheep being led to the slaughter. You have forecasted that the euro will no longer exist, and they are rapidly moving to digital currencies, which will be, as you say, for capital control. We will not be able to leave or get our money out. Will you do a special report on Europe? I think it is time to prepare for the future sooner than later.

I am a great admirer of your courage and endurance.

Hans

ANSWER: It gives me no pleasure to live through Socrates’s forecasts as we head into 2032 when even the euro has a Panic Cycle. I have done my best to try to defeat my own computer to no avail. Nobody will listen to me, and they certainly never listen to history, assuming this time is always different. That is just part of the cycle. Those of us who see the patterns are condemned to sit on the sidelines and watch everyone repeat history repeatedly.

The euro has broken last year’s low and is still trading below it. We have a very serious Panic Cycle for Europe next year, and they are pushing to cancel the currency’s move to digital ASAP. All they look at is capital controls, which will prevent bank runs and stop capital fleeing. They are trying to control their risk of the collapse of the EU.

Germany counterfeited the British pound during World War II to undermine their economy. However, with digital currencies, Russia has an EPM bomb. All they have to do is explode one over Europe, and you will fry the electric components and kill the digital euro altogether. This is how all governments work. They are entirely myopic, like climate change or COVID-19. In both cases, they never considered that this would drastically shrink the economy. Only afterward, behind the curtain, do I get the calls. Can you fix it?

When she was at the IMF, Christine Lagarde threatened tax havens to turn over all the people with accounts there or remove them from the SWIFT system. She even did that to the Vatican. She was the one who started this insane policy that her buddy, Obama, tried on Russia in 2014, and SWIFT refused to comply. So, they replaced the head of SWIFT in 2019, and he removed Russia from SWIFT, which set BRICS in motion. They are always myopic and never consider the counter-move in chess.

Now, Lagarde runs the ECB, pushing for the cancellation of the currency and moving to digital. This is about taxes all over again. She hates the rich, other than politicians, and is a pure socialist while prancing around as one of the best-dressed women in Europe in $10,000 designer attire.

Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, could be charged with money laundering as she transported more than $10,000 worth of goods without declaring them. Lagarde appeared in New York City wearing French designs in a Chanel dress worth €3000, €6000 for her Hermès handbag, and at least €500 for her Christian Louboutin shoes, bringing the total to about €9500, not counting jewelry, of course.

This is like Biden’s Climate C zar, John Kerry, flying around in his private jets while telling us to ride a bicycle or walk to work in our 15-minute cities. Then he tells coal miners to get a real job learning how to make solar panels.

I am working on a detailed report covering the individual countries and the break up of the EU down the pike.