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Elizabeth Warren, who is a disgusting Marxist except for herself rolling in the millions, has come out and accused people in Trump’s administration of insider trading regarding the bounce on tariffs, just so happen to be investigating her possible corruption. This is now all over Europe, and all the press over there who hate Trump have already pronounced him and everyone associated with him as guilty of insider trading. There is no proof of anything – just Warren’s hateful and biased accusations. She has done far more damage to the economy and avoids any accountability. This is why the United States will break apart.
In all honesty, it is becoming embarrassing to be part of the human race. They are cascading civilization into World War III, destroying any last vestiges of confidence in government, and this is what 2032 is all about – flushing this horrible system of government down the toilet.
I was asked in the upcoming sequel to The Forecaster:
I spoke with an attendee of the annual Vienna Peace Conference this week. They were not talking about peace but that everyone needs to start drafting people for war with Russia, which is now inevitable. Zelensky has been doing a great job of getting the world to invade and utterly destroy Russia. Even the former Estonian PM has outright stated that Russia is too big and must be broken up. The consensus that was reached is that war with Russia is going to unfold.
Kaja Kallas (born 18 June 1977) is now the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs. Based on my contact at this conference, I strongly advise our European readers to migrate to South America if they have children of conscription age.
COMMENT: Well, Marty, the Democrats are calling for an investigation because some people bought calls on the market on the 7th, and they are claiming it must have been Trump’s billionaire buddies who had inside information that he would reverse.
Will they come after you and claim it wasn’t your model again, but inside info? This hatred of Trump is destroying the country. I can now see why your computer forecasts the breakup of the United States. It appears to be inevitable.
UT
REPLY: This has been my curse: discovering something that people do not think exists. What Larry Summers says here is that if someone could forecast, then it would be self-fulfilling. I have tried to show society that there is order within what they think is chaos. The majority remain ignorant of the patterns right before their eyes.
I have Chaos models that I created that exposed market, which were by no means a random walk through the park like some drunk, and you do not know if he will fall to the left or right. I am so tired of being blamed for stupid shit these morons seem to be incapable to seeing the pattern right before their eyes.
What I have learned in trading since the late 1960s is that there is a time and place for everything. The key is being able to differentiate between short-term moves and major trend changes. The majority must always be wrong, and they are easily moved to follow the crowd. Stanley Milgram discovered that, and many did not like his findings because they were part of that 80% and wanted to think they were independent, but they were not.
Hermann Goring spoke the truth at his Nuremberg trial. Again, nobody wanted to believe that humanity is just a herd with raw animal instincts. It is easy to create a panic when everyone is together on one side, be it up or down, in a market.
I have often said that we are no different from a herd of zebras. One may see or just think they saw a lion approaching and start to run. The others run because he is running and has never seen anything. They run because everyone else is running. We do the same thing. Oh, everyone is selling because of Trump’s tariffs? Ok, tariffs must be bad, they assume. Do they independently look at history? Of course not!
My goal was not to sell advice but to run my own business. I used to provide the analysis for free to clients. I only ended up in the advice business after I announced I would retire from market making. The advice I gave clients was when the best time to lock in gold was. I made the same percentage regardless of the price. When I said I was retiring, they wanted me to continue to provide the advice. I was offered $2,000 an hour because I kept saying no. I gave it a shot, I figured I still wanted to talk to people back then. I spun off the advice at my clients’ request. This was never a career that I had aspired to. I didn’t even think it was some career.
I started at $2,000 an hour back in 1980. The Wall Street Journal heard about me and claimed they wanted to do a piece on the consulting industry in 1983. They interviewed some clients and were shocked. They told me that my clients said if I charged $10,000 an hour, they would pay it. I did not ask my clients the size of what I was advising on until I told a client to get out of a trade, which was a spread between the Deutsche Mark and the Japanese Yen in 1982.
The client asked me how to get out. I just said at the market. I left the office, and when I got home, the phone was going crazy. They were talking about the DM/JY cross moving 100bps, which was a massive move for those days. I asked what was going on, and nobody knew. They speculated that it was the Bank of Japan intervention. I thought my client got killed. I called him and asked: Did you get out of that trade? He laughed, and yes. Thank you. He added that was me! I was stunned. I asked: How many contracts did you have? He was trading at the billion-dollar level in 1982. After that, I made clients reveal the size of what I was advising on, and we entered into confidentiality agreements/non-disclosure agreements.
I had the equivalent of 50% of the value of the US National Debt under contract when I testified before Congress. I had more high-end clients than all the bankers in NYC combined. As one employee who came to work for me did his due diligence and asked Goldman Sachs about me, and they said they had thought they could take me out, but I usually won.
This is why I have always been targeted. The CFTC even filed a subpoena to force me to turn over a list of all my clients, accusing me in court of manipulating the entire world economy. My lawyer made a joke of it and said: Yes, Your Honor, including your salary. He then asked what was the CFTC’s jurisdiction? Where was the statute that it was a crime to manipulate the world economy? The judge laughed and denied the CFTC’s subpoena.
I have been plagued, so the bankers saw me as a threat to their manipulations. They never understood that it was not my personal opinion. Some have tried to explain that TIME is everything. But the typical comments of Larry Summers still dominate Washington. They would rather think there must have been some inside trading that created a new scandal to stop Trump, and they do not care if it is true or not. They just have to win and tear the country apart in the process.
I had dinner in Tokyo with the head of Deutsche Bank. He asked me how my company got so big. I said I did not trade against my clients. I was an adviser duty-bound to protect my clients, not view them as adversaries to make money off of. Bankers trade against their clients – I sought to help my clients.
Once you understand the Timing Arrays and the Reveral System, it will help you look at the markets with a cool and calm eye and not get all hysterical as we have seen these past two weeks. TIME is everything. Bull vs Bear markets are decided at the Monthly Level – not some daily sharp move as Bloomberg declared it was a bear market.
TIME is the next frontier. The sequel to movie on me entitled The Forecaster may be out by the end of the month. Then they are making a Hollywood version of my career with actors. I am excited about that, for this is the biggest production company with plenty of Oscars. They can see the cycles and want to show the world that there is order within this appearance of chaos. If they can accomplish that, then my mission in life will be complete. Hopefully, I leave behind a better world for my grandkids.
ActBlue is a self-proclaimed grassroots fundraising platform for the Democratic Party. The Democrats want the public to believe that the everyday American fully supports them, but the truth has come to light after an ongoing investigation found that the organization has been upheld by dark money from both “foreign and domestic fraudulent actors.”
The House Judiciary Committee, the Committee on House Administration, and the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform released a joint interim staff report titled, “Fraud on ActBlue: How the Democrats’ Top Fundraising Platform Opens the Door for Illegal Election Contributions.” When the investigation began, seven senior staff members resigned from their positions. Every lawyer affiliated with the organization stepped away, further raising suspicions. ActBlue’s chief fraud-prevention specialist stated he was solely focused on DEI work even as he listed his top goal as “not allowing more than 10 [percent] additional missed fraud.”
Internal documents revealed that ActBlue lowered its standards for fraudulent donations twice ahead of the 2024 US elections. Instead of actively looking for fraud, employees were encouraged to be “more lenient” and actively “look for reasons to accept contributions.”
“Internal documents also indicate that there have been instances in which bad actors have fraudulently taken control of user accounts, giving them the ability to make straw donations appearing to be from regular donors,” the report noted. There were over 22 ongoing fraud campaigns to Democratic candidates, nine of which received donations from foreign actors.
“Internal documents also indicate that there have been instances in which bad actors have fraudulently taken control of user accounts, giving them the ability to make straw donations appearing to be from regular donors,” the report stated. In a separate case, a Wisconsin Republican strategist claims ActBlue stole his identity to make 385 fraudulent donations on his behalf. “ ActBlue has even seen brazen instances of fraud in which multiple people have made donations using the same credit card information, and has internally acknowledged multiple incidents in which fraudulent donations evaded ActBlue’s automatic fraud review processes,” the report found.
One tactic used was collecting and saving card verification values (CVVs) for the first donation and using that information for recurring contributions. These contributions were found to amount to nearly half of all funding to ActBlue.
ActBlue violated the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 (FECA). Enacted by President Nixon, FECA established regulations for campaign fundraising, spending, disclosures, and penalties for those in violation. The act has been amended numerous times, with the last amendment occurring in 2002 known as the McCain-Feingold Act. FECA bans foreign national from donating to US elections to prevent foreign interference. We heard the rumors of Russian collusion, but ActBlue openly accepted donations from foreign nations like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, India, Brazil, and Colombia.
ActBlue used straw donor schemes, also illegal under FECA, that permitted contributions under false names. There were even instances of identical small fonations occurring from the same day under different names, which points to bundling or automated donations that the individual may not have approved of.
FECA also establishes contribution caps and limits to prevent undue influence. The investigation found that donors bypassed this law by using prepaid cards or varying billing details. “Smurfing” practices, breaking large donations into a series of smaller donations, also occurred.
Transparency went out the window as the agency processed 1,900 flagged fraudulent transactions between 2020 and 2024. Employees were encouraged to accept every and any donation even if that meant turning a blind eye to fraud.
ActBlue is the Democratic Party’s main fundraising platform. These allegations seriously undermine the ethics of the Democratic Party in general. Charges have not been filed at the time of this writing but the agency could face a DOJ case, but since things are (D)ifferent, they may get a slap on the wrist with FEC fines.
The Netherlands has changed its press directive to exclude non-accredited journalists from court hearings. Beginning on June 1, 2025, only members of ONE association, the Dutch Association of Journalists, will be able to create audiovisual reports of legal cases. This ensures that the government can control the media’s narrative as it spirals into the grips of war.
How does a journalist join the Dutch Association of Journalists? They must earn a specific amount of money from a predetermined list of media companies. Your livelihood must depend on reporting according to the government’s narrative if you want access to hearings. This is an all-out attack on free speech.
Potkaars, who personally has interviewed me numerous times, was denied membership in 2021 as they were not beholden to a media mogul or corporation that has the government’s approval. They have filed numerous lawsuits against the government to no avail. If judges deviate from the press directive, the restriction had to be recorded in a register under the old press directive. Potkaars protested twice against the failure to register a decision and was proven right in both cases ( Court of Appeal in The Hague, Court of Appeal in Amsterdam ). Journalists may not appeal against a judge’s decision to deny them access. The updated terms will permit judges to restrict press access arbitrarily without reason.
The judiciary hired an association to carry out the accreditation process. They want journalists who abide by the Digital Services Act implemented by the European Union, which requires third-party media companies to censor “misinformation” on behalf of the government.
My source has told me that the Netherlands is training its military to recover body bags as part of an annual drill. This was not required training in previous annual exercises—the Dutch are preparing for war, and the government wants to silence free speech to prevent the public from knowing the truth.
COMMENT #1: Thank you for your private blog. I can see that the turning points laid out in Socrates are indeed pressure points that then cause people to react as Trump just did. You were right. The 7th held. These people get hysterical and blab out forecasts on emotions, as you said.
Thank you for the training.
WY
COMMENT #2: My Dear Mr. Armstrong much can be said and argue about these Tariffs you can write endless post about it but the bottom line is Trump and his advisors choose the WORST time in history ?to implement them -is like all hell broke loose !
Regular working class will pay the price already here in Ontario company are starting to fired people blaming guess who ? Unfortunately that how the game is play somebody has to be blame
You must be very busy ,but don’t neglect your well being please !
GR
REPLY: You are correct. We are all human and will respond to similar events in the same way and in the same amount of time, regardless of the country. The computer gave us the timing months in advance. The “fundamental” does not matter. My concern is that we are heading into a recession that started May 7th, 2024. I agree that the Democrats and media will blame Trump and his tariffs when this is part of the business cycle that will move into 2028. We are facing a sovereign debt crisis that will wipe out all debt by 2034.
However, we are facing significant economic stress that pushes the Europeans to seek an external distraction, and that is Russia, to avoid dealing with the crumbling EU structure. They stripped Hungary of a right to vote and changed the rules that unanimous votes were necessary. Once you establish a centralized government, they will always see more and more power. This is also why no government has ever survived long-term.
Thrasymachus warned that JUSTICE is the same in every form of government – it is only the will of those in power. He said that more than 2000 years ago, and nothing has changed ever since. It is never a question of IF something will occur; it is merely a question of TIME – WHEN it will unfold. It is not a question of whether a society will rise against its oppressor; it is only a question of how much time it will require to move the majority of people to action. This is the same formula that governs when a market will crash. You may be able to raise your arm, but you cannot keep it up. You will run out of energy. So will markets or politics.
As I explained on the private blog, you can raise your arm but not keep it there. You will run out of energy, and it will become so heavy that you have to let it down. Markets are no different. As the white rabbit in Alice in Wonderland kept saying, “I’m late. I’m late.”
US/AMERICAS:
US Market Closings:
Canada Market Closings:
Brazil Market Closing:
COMMENT: I wanted to throw my two cents into this tariff mess. I have lost all respect for Bloomberg. They are the fake news. The political bias dominates all of their articles. I saw what they did to you and refused to ever publish the truth. They kept telling the world you were in contempt for $1 billion that was missing when it was $1.3 million, and never fessed up that the bank stole the money and had to plead guilty and repay your clients. The mere fact that you had no restitution said it all, yet they kept you in prison on civil contempt to turn over assets for something you never owed. They have covered stories of Trump with the same dishonesty. Pronouncing the NASDAQ was in a bear market, with the S&P 500 soon to follow, was the final straw.
Yesterday, they wrote that Donald Trump appeared to blink in the face of global, domestic, and perhaps most importantly, Wall Street fury at his single-handed destabilization of stock markets, bonds, and even oil prices. It was the press that caused the crash, not Trump. Everyone knows that Trump plays the art of the deal. The whole tactic was to create free trade. I agree, if Kamala had won, they would be blaming evil capitalists and Republicans, trying to make her look bad.
They have joined the leftist agenda of fake news. I cancelled my subscription.
BQ
REPLY: It is worse than that. Our reports used to be on Bloomberg. They deleted all of our previous reports. Mark Pittman had even written an article on what we were doing in Japan, buying distressed portfolios, and each transaction was approved by the Japanese Minister of Finance (MOF). When the charges were filed, I met Mark at the Hyatt by Grand Central Station. He knew the charges were false and said to me, “We are not going to let them do this to you.” Bloomberg removed Mark from ever covering anything about my story and deleted all the evidence that showed the charges were false.
Bloomberg has actually come out as proclaimed: “With the Nasdaq 100 already in a bear market, soon it may be the S&P 500’s turn.” All we hear are hysterical forecasts, all emotionally charged because the number one thing they taught in economics class was the Democratic propaganda from the 1932 election – Tariffs & Protectionism caused the Great Depression, and Free Trade is prosperity. Bill Clinton tried that with China, and the Democrats cheered him. It expanded GDP, but it wiped out jobs and even whole towns in USA.
I have traded billions and advised on trillions. I managed the only onshore hedge fund for Deutsche Bank – here is the track record. My worst drawdown in a month was 0.41% – unmatched by anyone. I have been in the trenches and traded head-to-head with Soros, Bacon, Goldman Sachs, Phibro et al. I know why capital moves and have testified before the House Ways and Means Committee even on that subject. I do not speak from “theory” or “I think” bullshit from pretend analysts who are spouting out emotional forecasts which confirms that they are NOT an analyst. I have been named hedge fund manager of the year, FOREX Person of the Year, the discoverer of the Secret Cycle, and economist of the decade, among many other things – including the SOB by bankers, or alternatively that MFer.
I am appalled by these people, who the media are parading on TV all hysterical, claiming tariffs will end the bull market if not civilization, and the media loves it because they get to hate Trump for something new, other than Putin’s Puppet or SIGNALgate that they can’t seem to get people interested in. Telling them they will lose everything in a 401K, there goes Social Security, and your house will fall to zero because you did not vote for Hillary or Kamala. While opinions make markets, as I have said countless times, the MAJORITY must always be wrong, for they provide the energy for the reversal of trend.
What Bloomberg reported was entirely LEFTIST propaganda. At the time, the NASDAQ had not even tested the basic uptrend line. Technically, you must break that line, stage a false move that retests that from beneath, and then it turns south again. To imply that the NASDAQ will continue to decline, it must close below 15200 on a monthly basis, raising the possibility of continuing down into May/June.
Democratic Senator Ron Wyden said he will force a vote on repealing tariffs in a test of GOP political support for Trump’s trade war. There are the renegade Republicans who joined the Democrats, demonstrating that they believe the 1932 Democrats’ propaganda to win the 1932 election was utterly false. The rollout of Trump’s tariff strategy has sparked wide-ranging reactions from investors, manufacturers, small businesses, and consumers.
Congress enacted the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act (RTAA) of 1934 which was a significant U.S. trade policy enacted during the Great Depression under President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal. The RTAA empowered the president to negotiate bilateral tariff-reduction agreements without requiring Congressional approval for each deal. This marked a shift from Congress’s traditional control over tariffs (e.g., the protectionist Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930). The Tariff reductions could be up to 50% of the existing rates.
Roosevelt, then, like Trump, engaged in Reciprocity Agreements that were based on mutual concessions, where the U.S. and partner countries agreed to lower tariffs on each other’s goods, boosting trade in theory, but it had little impact because consumers were not buying, staring at the uncertainty of the future. Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) Clause also took place with tariff reductions negotiated with one country being extended to all other trading partners with MFN status, preventing discrimination and broadening the impact of bilateral deals.
The Democrats had made such a big deal out of the tariffs, remaining dead silent on the Sovereign Debt Defaults, and that is what led to the propaganda we were taught in school that tariffs are bad and free trade is good. Aimed to reverse the trade-collapsing effects that they blamed on the Smoot-Hawley Act, which they had claimed exacerbated the Depression by sparking global tariff wars, they completely ignored the sovereign debt defaults that drove the dollar to record highs that made foreign imports even cheaper and wiped out 9,000 banks.
John Kenneth Galbraith, in his seminal work The Great Crash 1929, did not attribute the stock market collapse of 1929 to tariffs. That was not practical since they came in June 1930 after the CRASH. Instead, Galbraith emphasized factors such as speculative excess, margin buying, fraudulent corporate structures, and weak banking practices as the primary causes of the crash. His analysis was focused on the immediate financial mechanisms and psychological factors driving the bubble and its burst. While he acknowledged broader economic vulnerabilities, he did not highlight tariffs as a direct cause of the crash itself, and also did not mention the (1) capital concentration in the US, as was the case in Tokyo 1989, nor (2) the sovereign debt defaults of 1931.
However, tariffs, particularly the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, are often cited as exacerbating the Great Depression that followed the crash, thanks to the Democrats who used it simply because the sponsors were both Republican. Since the Smoot-Hawley Act was enacted after the crash, no serious economist could blame it for the market collapse. At best, they could claim its role in worsening global trade and economic relations during the 1930s.
The assertion that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff caused the Great Depression was used during the 1932 election by the Democrats. However, it is not widely attributed to a single individual among reputable economists or historians today. Most scholars view the tariff as a contributing factor that exacerbated the global economic downturn rather than its primary cause, since it was not enacted until the following year. However, several figures have prominently criticized its role:
The claim that the Smoot-Hawley Act “caused” the Great Depression is oversimplified and more commonly found in political rhetoric or popular discourse of the Democrats, who used it as a campaign argument to blame Republicans when it was a response to the high tariffs first imposed by Europe. Academic consensus recognizes it as one of many factors (alongside stock market collapse, banking crises, and monetary policy) that deepened and prolonged the crisis. No major economist or historian has definitively claimed it was the sole cause.
