QUESTION: Marty; I find the Global Market Watch really amazing. The talk of India banning gold imports could lead to a crash you have warned about under $1,000. The weekly level in gold came up and said about to crash and even caught the high the week of 07 November. The monthly also caught the high and said it was important back in July. But the monthly level at the close of October said a waterfall in motion. It seems like the GMW can even anticipate fundamentals. I really do not understand how the gold bugs keep attacking you. It appears they enjoy losing.

At the WEC you said the GMW is purely pattern recognition. Your blog on August 24th laid it all out. You said “The Weekly Bearish lies at 1275. That is the number that needs to be elected to hint at a potential sharp decline which could set this market up for a slingshot coming out of a low come January 2017.” You have been saying all along that a 3 quarter reaction with gold failing to get above 1362 on a monthly closing pointed to low perhaps by January 2017 at the earliest. How far out can the low form?

Congrats on Trump and gold. Brilliant.

PY

ANSWER: The Global Market Watch is purely pattern recognition. It is a confirming tool to cycles and reversals. It did a good job on gold. Yes, there are two risks to gold. First the ban by India, but second, as the debt crisis explodes, we will see more central bank selling. We will do a report on gold for year-end. Nothing has changed from what we laid out months ago or at the WEC. There are more than 500 markets and shares covered in the Global Market Watch. We will be expanding this to about 3500 soon. That is where you stay on top of things. Waiting for me to write about something when we cover so many aspects of the global economy is not the way to follow markets. This is not a newsletter covering just one or two markets. This is the entire purpose of providing access to the whole world.

For all the fools who supported Hillary claiming her Foundation was not illegal and doing good, Now Australia, who donated $75 million to the Clintons tax free has joined Norway cutting their donations. All government will withdraw their support for Hillary’s foundation because it was just corruption – pay to play. Hillary even had the audacity to say her foundation would continue when she was President and would not be shut down.

When the Clintons thought they had won, Bill jumped for joy like a school kid. They were probably singing to themselves ” Were in the money” song from the Great Depression.

Meanwhile. 99% of the press who endorsed Hillary will continue to attack Trump for everything they can. This will be their way of saying – see we were right. The press will keep this up and as the US share market rallies, they will blame Trump reporting he is just making his rich buddies richer.

Welcome to the new reality TV show. The meltdown on the country fueled by the socialist media who will prefer to destroy the country than admit they backed the poster-child of corruption. The Democrats should be ashamed at their party putting Hillary up.

Asian trading was pretty quiet ahead of much European and US data and consequently did not spring into action until later in the day. The Nikkei, HSI and Shanghai exchanges were moderately mixed but we did see the ASX (Australian market) produce a strong 1.3% return as Miners and Ind Metals performed well. All this on the back of US record closes and the hype of US infrastructure spending pushing up prices. This was all to change in afternoon Europe after we heard from the UK Autumn Statement and additional US data releases. In late US trading the Nikkei futures were up 1.5% but the currency broke into the 113 handle.

Europe had a quiet morning despite the strong PMI release but steadied whilst awaiting UK Chancellor which came just ahead of the US economic releases. UK said they have abandoned balancing the budget anytime soon, revised growth lower to 1.4% (2.2% was hoped for) all at the same time as raising debt issuance from 87.4% (of GDP) to 90.2% in 2018. The result of this was initial GBP weakness (which recovered by the close – as is a very crowded trade) but hit the Gilt market across the curve – see later yield increases. US data was also strong with the traditionally volatile Durable Goods forecasted 1.5% being beat by a 4.8% release. Core European indices finished +/- 0.25% as the top topic of discussion today surrounds the Bond markets.

US markets were quiet ahead of the long weekend but that did not stop the DOW from setting another high even it did not close there. Economic data set the reassurance, if that were needed, but was also supported by FED minutes suggesting a stronger economy. ugh the US is closed tomorrow the rest of the world continue to ponder what many are claiming, “Extremely difficult trading conditions”! Tomorrow we see German and Spanish GDP and Japanese CPI. The DXY continues to break fresh highs but given the economic support coupled with the problems elsewhere just naturally pours more and more cash into the US market.

Early speculation in Europe that the ECB is questioning collateral types and concerns how the Repo market has dried, is leading to further investigations. Upon the news all European bond markets took a hit including the core but that was not really needed as nerves grow approaching next weeks Italian vote. It is not surprising this is hitting BTP’s as the FTSE MIB is down around 22% YTD. US 10’S added 5bp to close 2.36%; 30’s closed 3% having seen 3.04% in earlier trading. In Germany 10yr Bunds closed 0.26% (+4bp) closing the spread at +210bp. Italy 10’s closed 2.11% (+10bp), Greece 6.79% (+1bp), Turkey 11% (+22bp), Portugal 3.65% (+5bp) and UK Gilts +9bp at 1.45% having heard of additional issuance and the abandonment of balancing the budget anytime soon.

Private Blog Update for Gold

A major quake has hit New Zealand and days later Japan. Unfortunately, this is in line with our model as we head toward our destiny with a crash in the energy output of the sun. The Pacific Ring of Fire is a horseshoe-shaped band of fault lines that circles the Pacific Basin. This is known as the Ring of Fire for it is populated with both fault lines and volcanoes. It is historically prone to frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions because it is the most seismically active zone on the planet. Our models show we are headed into a much greater period of activity as we get closer to 2040. This is when we should see the peak in activity and this should help create the coming Mini Ice Age correlating with the decline in the energy output of the sun.

The Ring of Fire extends 40,000km and includes 452 volcanoes, stretching from the southern tip of South America, up and along the west coast of North America, across the Bering Strait and down through Japan. It then turns south taking in Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, and Indonesia, where the Indo-Australian Plate collides with the Eurasian Plate, and end in New Zealand, known as the “Shaky Isles”.

The most catastrophic earthquakes have taken place around the Ring of Fire, including the strongest one on record, a magnitude 9.5 in Chile in the 1960s. It was 1816 known as the Year without a Summer that was caused by a massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in the Dutch East Indies. This was the largest eruption in at least 1,300 years after the extreme weather events of 535–536AD. The Earth had already been in a centuries-long period of global cooling that started in the 14th century as the energy output of the sun declined into 1700s. Known today as the Little Ice Age, it had already caused considerable agricultural crop failures in Europe. The Little Ice Age’s existing cooling was aggravated by the eruption of Tambora on the Ring of Fire, which occurred during its concluding decades.The year 1816 is known as the Year Without a Summer because of severe climate abnormalities that caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1.3 °F). This resulted in major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere as Tambora threw so much ash into the air it snowed in New York City during July.

The borders of a lot of tectonic plates generally meet in the Ring of Fire. This is where they move away from each other and push at each other creating earthquakes. This week has seen significant seismic activity along the belt, particularly in Japan and New Zealand. A near 7.4-magnitude quake hit the same Fukushima prefecture in Japan where the nuclear reactor was located. Once again a tsunami soon followed.

The New Zealand and Japan quakes took place on the western side of the Pacific rim. This will be followed now by pressure being release on the Eastern side of the Rim running along the coast of North and South America. There is an 866 year cycle between the four biggest volcanic eruptions since 1650BC. Of course, there are minor frequencies that produce strong eruptions, but of a lessor magnitude 6 or less. For example, 86 years from 1815 gave us the 1902 eruption of Santa María Central America Volcanic Arc October 24, 1902.

Volcanic category 7

1650BC Thera eruption that ended Minoan Civilization

180AD Taupo Caldera/Hatepe eruption Taupo Volcano Affected skies over Rome and China

947AD Baekdu Mountain/Tianchi eruption China/ North Korea border  Nov-947

1815 AD Mount Tambora Lesser Sunda Islands Apr 10, 1815 Year Without a Summer (1816)

COMMENT: Hello Martin, love your work, have learned so much, as an engineer and innovator, your work and perspectives have given me amazing sight and perspective to which I am very grateful.

I diagnosed my son with a condition called MELAS, awful, and heart breaking, all the experts were wrong as usual and it was a fight to be heard and understood, only when sadly proven right at each stage did they start to listen and understand. But it was too late and he passed in my arms as we slept 25 months 16 days ago, aged 10.

He taught me a lot and made me push my brain and mind to try and figure out a way to save him. It brought me into so much new knowledge.
3 days ago another friend, 40, got cancer diagnosed. During discussion I realized something very significant. I am half Iranian half English, with a huge family in Tehran and friends.. my observation was that in the last 30 years, out of all of them, only 2 had cancer, both lived to 90 and both heavy smokers.
Then I dug and amazingly the cancer rate in U.K. Was nearly 4 times higher in the Iran., based on number of new incidents/1000/yr.

Then I looked at the cancer incidence map worldwide and what I found was shocking. Complete opposite to expectations. Then I compared death rates map world wide on same incidence I.e. Deaths (all deaths all causes) incidents/1000/year, that blew my mind,then finally world wide map of number of billionaires in each country… then put all 3 maps together. This high level comparison sent shivers down my spine. Last time I had a moment like that was when I overlayed over 60 new product launches I was involved in or knew detail about onto your ecm, the ones that failed were all in line with your downturns and the ones that all succeeded were in the up cycle, even though some of the best products were the ones that failed.

Hence I would like to share the info graphic I have pulled together and for you to determine if it is value to comment from your analytical perspective.

REPLY: I am sorry to hear about your loss. It is not an easy thing. I lost my first son. It changes you, without a question. If someone in the medical field would care to assemble the symptoms and markers for each disease, I would be glad to program it using AI to help people reach the correct conclusion before it is too late.

The correlations that emerge are probably genetic. When you go to a doctor, they ask you about your family history. Most diseases are genetic. They can learn a lot from a genetic profile. That is not being shared with the patients in most cases.

Hillary supporters claimed that the Clinton Foundation was an innocent, “charitable” organization. On his proposed first day to “Drain the Swamp,” Trump will impose a LIFETIME BAN ON LOBBYING FOR FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS. Numerous foreign governments handed money to the Clintons purely for “influence.” The corruption with Norway’s link to the Clinton Foundation extended to Obama. This was the reason Obama was given the Noble Peace Prize, and Jens Stoltenberg, who approved the half-billion donation from Norway to the Clintons, was made the head of NATO in Europe.

The Norwegian newspaper Hegnar reports that Norway is expected to slash their contributions to the Clinton Foundation now that Hillary has lost the presidency. Norway’s pay-off to the Clinton Foundation was strategic. According to local press, during the period 2007 to 2015, Norway sent 584 million to the Clinton Foundation. For the next three years, they promised the Clintons a further 92 million.

Now that Hillary lost, Norway it is cutting those donations by 87%. Our sources are whispering that all other foreign governments will follow. With Trump’s lifetime ban on lobbying for foreign governments, Hillary’s days of influence are starting to crash and burn. Trump did not say he would indict her. He has cut off Hillary’s funding by foreign governments that she cultivated as Secretary of State. Anyone who really believed countries like Saudi Arabia donated to Hillary to support women and gay rights which they do not respect at home are sublime fools. Hillary’s emails to Podesta admitted that Saudi Arabia and Qatar were both giving financial and logistical support to the Islamic State and other extremist Sunni groups, demonstrating that indeed this has been a civil war between Sunni and Shia. The Clinton Foundation’s list of donors confirmed that Saudis donated to her. Now, the Saudis and Qatar are rumored among our sources to be chopping off their donations to Hillary following her loss.

Trump has come out and said he does not intend to indict Hillary because it would be “very very divisive” for the country. I believe this is the correct choice. Nevertheless, Draining the Swamp has begun!

QUESTION:

Hi Martin,

Thank you for your incredible contribution to humanity, everything you have done so far would take thousands of average humans to achieve. I am writing to ask for your advice on a very serious problem facing mankind. With the exponential development of AI systems I can see only one conclusion to this technology and that is the entropic eradication of humans. I use the word entropic because no matter how many ways you asses the human race, their is no logical reason for them to exist. I am reaching out to you for advice on how to create and enforce a set of protocols that all AI systems will have to adhere to in an effort to preserve and improve mankind on the planet. I am a deep thinker from the land down under and I believe that the timing at the moment is perfect to create and announce a worldwide AI authority.

We will need some big names involved and will need to appear from the very beginning as having indisputable credibility. I really think there is only one opportunity to do this as any general discussion of the concept would create a resistance movement, even if only for the sake of resisting. People are so predictable. I know you have more work than you can handle, so at the very least please direct me to someone who can help to make this a reality. It may be as simple as asking Socrates to create a set of protocols that make the preservation of humans a superior priority over all other issues. Can you help.

Cheers P

ANSWER: I know that the movies portray AI as capable of acquiring emotion and taking over the world. I have been a very accomplished programmer. I do not know how it would be possible to create a program that would actually engage in emotion. I can simulate such a pattern, but it would not be real.

AI can do things that humans cannot BECAUSE it lacks emotion and bias. If it were possible to create emotion, AI would then be just like humans and lose the ability to actually perform a task such as predicting that Trump would win or BREXIT since emotion would produce bias. Every poll missed it because they are created by humans asking humans and therein lies the emotion. I believe that it is rather strange that every poll was wrong here and in Britain. It is more probable that they were not wrong, just engaged in trying to manipulate society which failed.

AI could revolutionize medicine, economics, law, and politics where each is dependent upon EXPERIENCE. I had a parasite that entered my eye when I was inside. I told the doctor and they said such things only exist in the tropics. I lost part of my eyesight, and after writing to a judge to be taken to a doctor I was told no. When I got out, my family doctor also said I was wrong. He sent be for a test for Fibromyalgia. I went, assuming he was wrong but had to prove it. The doctor conducting the test had a parasite one time. When I told him, he said, yes, that’s what you have. He called my family doctor told him and only then did he refer me to a specialist. He looked at the same blood test my family doctor took and said, yes, you have a parasite. He gave me the medicine and it was gone. My point is, each doctor had an opinion. If my family doctor had no idea what a parasite was in New Jersey, he would not have consider it as a possibility. AI can do that in the blink of an eye.

Any system that is just a human opinion would benefit from AI. I do not see it as something that needs to be regulated when those who regulate things have no idea of the subject matter to start with. The regulations will be absurd and probably drafted to prevent what they see in movies. Regulation is used to control human bias toward one thing or another. If there is no bias, then how do you regulate truth?

COMMENT: Hello Martin, love your work, have learned so much, as an engineer and innovator, your work and perspectives have given me amazing sight and perspective to which I am very grateful.

I diagnosed my son with a condition called MELAS, awful, and heart breaking, all the experts were wrong as usual and it was a fight to be heard and understood, only when sadly proven right at each stage did they start to listen and understand. But it was too late and he passed in my arms as we slept 25 months 16 days ago, aged 10.

He taught me a lot and made me push my brain and mind to try and figure out a way to save him. It brought me into so much new knowledge.
3 days ago another friend, 40, got cancer diagnosed. During discussion I realized something very significant. I am half Iranian half English, with a huge family in Tehran and friends.. my observation was that in the last 30 years, out of all of them, only 2 had cancer, both lived to 90 and both heavy smokers.
Then I dug and amazingly the cancer rate in U.K. Was nearly 4 times higher in the Iran., based on number of new incidents/1000/yr.

Then I looked at the cancer incidence map worldwide and what I found was shocking. Complete opposite to expectations. Then I compared death rates map world wide on same incidence I.e. Deaths (all deaths all causes) incidents/1000/year, that blew my mind,then finally world wide map of number of billionaires in each country… then put all 3 maps together. This high level comparison sent shivers down my spine. Last time I had a moment like that was when I overlayed over 60 new product launches I was involved in or knew detail about onto your ecm, the ones that failed were all in line with your downturns and the ones that all succeeded were in the up cycle, even though some of the best products were the ones that failed.

Hence I would like to share the info graphic I have pulled together and for you to determine if it is value to comment from your analytical perspective.

REPLY: I am sorry to hear about your loss. It is not an easy thing. I lost my first son. It changes you, without a question. If someone in the medical field would care to assemble the symptoms and markers for each disease, I would be glad to program it using AI to help people reach the correct conclusion before it is too late.

The correlations that emerge are probably genetic. When you go to a doctor, they ask you about your family history. Most diseases are genetic. They can learn a lot from a genetic profile. That is not being shared with the patients in most cases.