The Greek government is calling for full disclosure of ALL household wealth. The Greeks are to disclose everything they own — cash worldwide, jewelry, real estate, paintings, and furniture. The Greek government is totally insane and intends to exploit its population simply to remain in the euro without the simplest shred of evidence that such a measure would even benefit the country.

They are preparing to impose a compulsory levy to reduce debt owed to Brussels and Germany. This will send the Greek economy into a Fourth World order and destroy one of the most beautiful countries in Europe. There is zero chance of altering the future since the corruption of the Greek government – not the people — created this nightmare to begin with. Now the Greek population will have to pay for the fraud their government carried out with the aid of Goldman Sachs.

Greece began the Sovereign Debt Crisis precisely on our model, to the day, on the Pi Cycle from the 2007 high. This was the same as 9/11, which took place, to the day, from the 1998 high in the ECM. We may see a revolution appear in Greece by 2018.89. This is getting totally insane and the government has lost all credibility of how to manage a state.

The ban of burkinis in Cannes, France, and nearby towns was upheld in the courts. The general view is that girls in mini-skirts are not suicide bombers. The beaches at the French Rivera are now under guard and people are being searched like they are going on public transportation. The ban on burkinis has also taken hold in Corsica. Brawls have now begun on the beaches there.

In the States, they always had segregated nude beaches that offended the majority. It would seem to them that there should be the same sort of segregation where only Muslims in burkinis can swim. Not even sure that would solve the rising crisis.

QUESTION: Hi martin

I see all kind of speculation about what will be the price of gold in the coming years. I wonder if it makes any sense such debate as long as socrates is foreseing a monetary reform maybe in 2018.

What will be the real value of the currency after that?

Any thoughts on this?

Thank you

ANSWER: The speculation is rather absurd like gold will be $50,000 or $100,000 is just total nonsense. What do such figures even mean? These gold promoters hurt so many people for they imply that everything will crash and only gold will rise to such levels. If everything crashed, that would be deflation and gold would decline not rise. Gold would ONLY rise when it is the monetary base or the money everyone uses. That it is not. You cannot pay your mortgage in gold nor can you pay your taxes. That means it is NOT legal tender. The younger generations are into plastic, not even paper money. Things do change from one generation to the next. The calendar was changed by the Pope and the first day of the year was moved from April 1st to January 1st. There were those who refused to follow this because it had been the Pope and continued to celebrate the old calendar. They became known as April Fools.

Those who keep preaching that only gold is money are in the same category. Money at the end of the day is labor be in physical or mental. You accept whatever in exchange for that because someone else will accept it from you. Throughout history, just fill in the blank as to what that medium of exchange has been from sea shells and cattle to sheep skins and slave girls.  The earliest bronze medium of exchange took the shape of the previous familiar medium of exchange be they cowrie shells in china or sheep skins when the Bronze Age appeared in Europe.

Besides, for gold to reach such levels, nothing would be left including a place to even spend it. If there is nothing you can spend it on, it becomes worthless for it is only a medium of exchange. The dark pictures they paint are not something gold would survive. At that point, the control-alt-delete buttons are pushed and everything would rest back to the hunter-gather period meaning food is everything.

This is Alice in Wonderland, plain and simple to say gold will rise to $50,000 or higher. The maximum our models project is $5,000. That is probably the point at which total chaos is unleashed anyhow and you end up with a completely new monetary system. So the question is rather simple insofar as gold will be the hedge against government and that means it will retain a reasonable value for the transition from the current monetary system to the next. That is what gold will do for the buy & hold strategy. If you are a trader and buy and sell, then you can do much better. This is the computer just using the Monthly Reversals from the start of gold futures. Trading just one contract produced only on the Monthly Reversals came to $1,268,800 (hypothetical not including transaction costs). Buy & hold would be for a $20,000 investment in 1975 would be $135,000 today (575%). Of course, had you just collected interest you would have made on $20,000 and $65,000. Had you bought and held the Dow, it opened 1975 at 619.13 so you would be up about $18,000 on a buy & hold not counting dividends (2877%). So the buy & hold is only for a hedge, not a long-term investment. It is like keeping cash in the sock drawer in case the bank fails.

Keep in mind, however, gold will not go so easily into the light. There is a high probability that they will declare gold illegal for transactions and prosecute under money laundering, which has been redefined as simply hiding money from government. The end game is really the collapse of the monetary system and hopefully that coincides with a collapse in government power. That is where gold will make the transition from the old to the new.

Therefore, what we are ultimately looking for from gold is the hedge against government to make that transition, which historically always happens. Before we get to that place, there will be trades to be had and from that perspective you can increase your gains rather than just the buy & hold. Selling at the high in 2011 and buying even here is a huge gain. The buy & hold strategy never works when it comes time for the correction. Anything beyond the sock drawer strategy fails because inevitably people cannot hold through the worse declines.

During the 2009 crisis, that is when the S&P PE Ratio reached its historic high. Why? People bought shares to park money outside of banks. This is when the incentives flip from earnings to survive-ability. This is that transition phase. That is what we are looking for for gold. It is why gold rallied into 2011. Unfortunately, these gold promoters preach a lot of mumbo-jumbo without and historical evidence of what they predict has ever happened even once in history.

Gold has its role. Understand it for what it is. There is no knight in shining white Armour to come save the day. We are looking at the collapse of socialism (pensions etc) and this should result in massive civil unrest, which the government knows is coming and they are preparing to defend themselves against the people. We are cattle in their view. The great unwashed collateral damage over whom they never lose a night’s sleep. Never forget that.

QUESTION: Marty; The Global Market Watch pinpointed Thursday as a knee jerk high in gold. I now understand what the ‘knee jerk’ means. The day before was a low, this was what you call a thrust up but just one day and no follow through. How does the computer know that by the close of Thursday that there will be no follow through?

PL

ANSWER: It actually knows it within a few hours. The pattern it is taking into consideration is everything around it. How it opened, how high was the high, how low was the low, and where it closed relative to the open and previous day. There are percentage movements and accumulative patterns as it moves. There are indicators from stochastics, channels, moving averages, and our indicating trend ranges. There are no cycles and we did not include the reversals. So this becomes just a pattern recognition model that is highly complex. The advantage of this model is as an alert. It was designed for our institutional clients with large portfolios and did not have the staff nor the time to read a report on every market or instrument in their portfolio each day. The original price was $250,000 a year. We are trying to make this affordable for the world to use and see that the fundamentals do not really determine market movement because people act in anticipation of something that may never happen. This model overturns just about everything they ever taught you in school and shows that even politicians are helpless in trying to change the course of the country within the eternal global economic sea.

We really are working hard to get this trader version out. This is where you will be able to access the global market watch with about 500 instruments. Use it as an alert and you can click into any market that looks interesting rather than paying for a subscription to a single market that 30% of the time there might be some required action.

The intraday map will be the next version up which we call Pro. The third version up which will be next year, will do the GMW intraday when we eventually input the live feed. Keep in mind that is a live system so there are exchange fees and a lot more cost involved.

The Global Market Watch is best on the main markets. Individual stocks can have strange patterns so it is like a child and still learning. The Pro version we hope to include all global stocks. This entails some 30,000 instruments.

I am fighting tooth and nail to get the first version out ASAP.

A number of emails have come in since the rumor mill is now circulating that Bill Clinton has Alzheimer’s disease. In July, I wrote that my sources in Hollywood had said that Bill was not as sharp as he used to be. It has now even made the National Enquirer, but of course, they exaggerated what is going on and claimed Bill might not make it to the election. While that is not true, people who know Bill are questioning if he has been losing it. I do not think there will be any problem with him making it to the election, unless someone decides that they need the sympathy vote to win as it helped LBJ after the death of Kennedy. But I wouldn’t bet on that just yet.

I went to go see “Hillary’s America.” When I Googled to see where it was playing, there were a bunch of pro-Hillary sites at the top of the page. Nevertheless, about four down, I finally came to the movie. The movie was different than I expected. It went through the history of the Democratic Party, which was amazingly spot-on and not distorted. Indeed, it showed one of the greatest scams of all time. The Democrats pretend to be the party of minorities and the poor, but in fact, they have been the primary oppressors.

Clinton signed the mandatory minimums in drug cases and sent more minorities to prison than any other president in history. The film also discussed the inside story of Johnson (LBJ) who took the credit for the Civil Rights Act, which merely enforced what was passed after the Civil War. It showed that the gun regulation championed by the Democrats outlawed blacks from owning guns. The film showed that Democratic President Woodrow Wilson began segregation.

The primary theme of the movie was the bait-and-switch con orchestrated by the Democrats, who were the slave owners, into using the minority vote to enrich themselves. There was perhaps only 25% of the film dedicated to the Clintons. From a historical perspective, it did a great job of showing the real nature of politics. It did not touch on the Republican corruption, just the transformation of the Democrats from slave owners into the pretend minority defenders.

This really should be mandatory in history class.

The Nikkei did manage a positive close for the end of the week but finished down just over 2% on the week. The JPY continues to play around the par level until the stock markets decide their direction. Shanghai and Hang Seng closed mixed in thin summer trading in what can only be described as lethargic trade. With very little in the way of data to get excited about in either Europe or the US markets were content to drift into the weekend.

European morning was a follow-on to the lethargy seen in Asia and so it was not until an afternoon announcement by the UK did the market show any signs of life. Mid afternoon in Europe the media announced UK PM (Theresa May) wants to trigger Article 50 by next spring. GBP fell over 1% upon this announcement. Meanwhile in Europe bank shares continue to weigh on markets as the uncertainty around liquidity, Derivatives exposure and irregularities weigh heavy on the books. Core indices closed around 0.75% lower with IBEX extending that loss to -1.2%. UniCredit was temporarily suspended when it hit 5% down, however by the end of the day the stock closed 6.5% lower.

The lows in US indices were struck shortly after the opening bell and they spent the remainder of the session trying to reclaim lost ground. Eventually we closed lower but pretty much near the days highs, yes lower but they attempted a positive close. Looking ahead to next week we have to wait until almost the end until we hear from Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole and the hope we will hear some intention toward current conditions.

Bonds were weaker on both sides of the pond with Europe possibly losing a little more than the US. In Treasuries we saw a 4bp parallel shift with 2/10’s closing unchanged at 83bp, with 10’s closing 1.58%. Bunds lost a little more ground closing at -.03% closing the US/Germany spread at +161bp. Periphery markets also lost ground to core closing Italy +6bp at 1.13%, Greece 7.86% (-3bp), Turkey 9.58% (-3bp), Portugal 2.98% (+10bp) and 10yr Gilts at 0.62% (+7bp).

California is about to pass a law that is so totalitarian and anti-citizen, you really have to question what the hell is going on. This new law will criminalize any undercover investigative videos of all “health care providers.” That means, even a local TV cannot make an investigation of a nursing home for abuse. This is now along side criminalizing parents under the vaccine mandate SB 277 championed by Gov. Brown. Of course this is over the controversy which emerged from secretly recording videos showing Planned Parenthood employees discussing fetal tissue sales. California wants to now criminalize any media companies for reporting on certain undercover videos. Clearly, the vagueness of the bill means it can be applied to any healthcare issue. This is obviously anti-constitutional and against the First Amendment.

Yet this is illustrates why career politicians are the greatest threat to our survival. This issue demonstrates what is completely wrong with the American legal system. The politicians get to write whatever law they desire (often lobbyists pay them to do so) and it becomes the burden of citizens to challenge it. Moreover, the government then must enforce the act, not just pass it, and ONLY then someone they try to throw in prison has “standing” to challenge. Welcome to the insanity of the law.

In the first six months of the year, the raw data has shown that several central banks have been selling US government bonds in an attempt to support their currencies against the dollar. This has come in part at the request of the United States, exactly as took place back in 1985 at the Plaza Accord. The United States has a strikingly different view as to currency value. You even hear Trump calling China a currency manipulator because they have seen a declining currency. He does not understand that this has been a global trend. Nonetheless, European central banks see a weak currency as a weakness politically and thus want a high valued currency.

Therefore, our capital flow analysis has clearly shown that the central banks have been selling US Treasuries in an attempt to support their currencies. Nonetheless, this is has not reversed the trend.

QUESTION: All energy says spike low on monthly global market watch. Now we had a correction from 52 to $39 so that qualifies but we also had a rally from 39 to 47 so does it still qualify? If Socrates uses the last data point 47 it would not be a spike low  but if it accesses the low for the month its correct. So which One?

ANSWER: The Global Market Watch is purely a pattern recognition model. It is by no means perfect because the computer is still learning for we have introduced ETFs and global stocks. Therefore, it is still registering new patterns as it collects pattern development around the world. There are wilder patterns for example in agriculture compared to bonds or stocks with respect to the percentage movement.

Nonetheless, keep in mind it is looking at this extremely dynamically with respect to the last entry weekly to yearly. That means it looks at the ENTIRE range and assumes at that close what would the pattern be if that had completed that unit of time. So a weekly will assume the week if complete each day as the week moves forward. The same is true with monthly to yearly. However, it is the full range and not just the last closing price that determines the pattern. Also, introducing global stocks has implicitly introduced within any price currency. A market will typically rise to offset the decline of a currency so that real value tends to remain unless it is perceived to be a political risk to the entire country, then sell everything.

This model does not use the last data point alone. It uses the FULL range of the current session. So it knows it made a low but a “spike low” is short lived and tends to be a thrust type move. A “spike low” is different from a “temp low” or “reaction low” inasmuch as the latter two are part of a trend.

In the case of Crude Oil, it made a high in June so a “knee jerk” is just one unit of time and “spike” is short and quick but more than just one time unit.” Both types of moves are thrust types meaning sharp and swift. These are not normal actions like a bear market finally making its low gradually. Both the “knee jerk” and the “spike low” can be followed by a resumption of the trend in motion or a retest of the previous high or low. That retest would be the reaction. Often the “knee jerk” and “spike” events may also involve the slingshot type of movement.