Mining Shares

June 7, 2016

COMMENT: Mr Armstrong; what do you think about mining shares?

REPLY: I do not have the time to talk about every market and every move. We do have mining shares in the system. The computer is better than anyone could possibly be for there is too much to watch and there are too many personal biases that tend to creep into claimed analysis. The numbers are the numbers in everything. Besides, claiming all mining shares perform the same is absurd. That is how people are misled, which results in losing money and their future.

Franklin Teach Me

Our system covers everything. It does not miss a market. It seems the words of Ben Franklin apply here. It seems Franklin also said something which applies: “We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.”

The key to successful investing is to reject dogma and let the market prove itself. We have a lot of mining shares on the system. You can see from this video, they are not all the same.

Market Talk June 6th, 2016

June 7, 2016

Market-Talk -R

A mixed session out of Asia saw the Nikkei and Shanghai small lower whilst the Hang Seng managed a 0.4% rally. After Fridays surprise NFP release the JPY continued stronger, trading as low as 106.40.  However, the big news overnight was about the shift in the upcoming BREXIT vote and the swing towards a possible vote to leave the EU. Sterling lost at one stage about 1.4% declining to 1.4350 just ahead of London opening. The European session was spent recovering much of that and we closed around 0.5% lower at 1.4440.
European equities failed to move that much today, ahead of Janet Yellen’s speech, with the exception being FTSE. That market reacted to the weakness of GBP and so rallied 1% on the day. All other core European markets were dragged better as we saw a strong performance coming from the US.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen was slightly more upbeat than many had expected (given Fridays numbers). Many dealers remarked that they expected her to be a little more conservative than previous. Speaking at the World Affairs Council she spoke more positively and tended to adopted a broader more holistic horizon confusing many as they remain transfixed on the Jobs Report.
Fixed-Income markets returned some of Fridays action with the long end being hit most. 2yr US Treasuries climbed 2.5bp to close the day at 0.795%. 10’s meanwhile closed 1.74%. In Europe the 10yr Bund closed 0.085% closing the US/Bund spread at +165.5bp. 10yr Italy closed 1.46% (+5bp), Greece 7.17% (+5bp), Turkey 9.28% (-6bp), Portugal 3.17% (+2.5bp) and UK Gilt 10yr closed 1.28% (u/c).

Yellen Says Interest Rates Will Go Higher

June 6, 2016

yellen Janet

Janet Yellen’s remarks today confused the people who think the world turns on the Jobs numbers since they remain clueless with respect to the changing trend in employment. They do not take into consideration the technology shift, so they are still trying to trade from 20th-century concepts. Yellen gave an outlook of the U.S. economy and said that interest rate hikes are coming. Higher rates are needed for pension funds, and the decision will cause the stock market to take off which will appear like asset inflation.

“I see good reasons to expect that the positive forces supporting employment growth and higher inflation will continue to outweigh the negative ones,” Yellen said. She expressly stated with regard to the Jobs Report data that the Fed will respond “only to the extent that we determine or come to the view that the data is meaningful in terms of changing our view of the medium- and longer-term economic outlook.”

This is the 21st century. Focusing on the Jobs Report to determine a recession is out of touch with the full dynamic scope of what is taking place.

BREXIT v Yellen

June 6, 2016

 

BREXIT v Yellen

The debate shifted following the Jobs Report, and people now assume that the Fed will not raise rates. Hence, we have a bounce in gold and the euro. That makes no fundamental sense regarding gold since higher rates indicate inflation and lower rates warn of deflation. The real confusion has been that most only focus on domestic issues. The euro would bounce if BREXIT won, giving a bit of a bid there. Nevertheless, the typical US analysts and newspapers pay no attention to BREXIT and just assume it is a European thing.

To the contrary, BREXIT is a huge deal for if the “real” vote prevails if we do see an exit that the establishment cannot prevent. Sure, the pound will get hit at first, but thereafter, a contagion of separation movements will appear and contribute to the demise of the euro. That will have a broader long-term influence on capital flows pouring into the USA.

Two-bedroom condos in Brooklyn are now going for over $1 million. This is all foreign capital pouring into the USA on cash deals. The same is taking place in Miami, and this is why the IRS demands title companies to pierce corporate veils to get at the real owners only in New York and Miami.

Fed Excess Reserves

BREXIT can have a profound impact on the dollar because it has the potential to send mountains of cash fleeing Europe to the USA.

Then we have Donald Trump, and a victory there would really change America. Trump is talking about a 15% corporate tax rate that would match Hong Kong. If this policy were to happen, we would see $2 trillion in offshore corporate cash return to USA. Then if the Fed wisens up and fails to raise the 0.5 rate on excess reserves or eliminates it, as it should, there will be another $2 trillion freed up.

With $4 trillion free, the only place will be equities. We will see the Dow come into that sweet spot where you can buy it with two hands and watch it rally to test the 23,000 level in the years ahead. Nobody seems to expect a rally and that makes this even more explosive.

So for all the Fed watchers worried about a quarter point change in rates, they are missing the international picture. We have issued a special report on BREXIT for one simple reason:

 

BREXIT IS FAR MORE IMPORTANT THAN A RATE CHANGE

 

Oil — Have We Reached the Next Turning Point?

June 6, 2016

CRUDE-W 6-4-2016

COMMENT: MA,
Someone said they sold the euro at 116 with a stop loss at 11705 and  sold gold at 1305 with a stop above last year’s high.  They earn a lot. But they not mention that your crude oil forecast is also correct!

Feb 28, 2016

A daily closing above $33.60 on Monday will be a warning that we may yet see a rally to everyone’s shock and dismay.

Mar 17, 2016

close March above the February high of 34.69, then we have a shot of more than a one-month knee-jerk reaction high. Then we can look for a possible three-month rally into May. The two primary targets are at the $45 and $49 level. That has to be exceeded to hope for a rally to reach the formidable resistance zone in the $69-$70 area.

Now it is the end of May, and reach $49, will the rise trend continous? And is the formidable resistance zone in the $69-$70 area will it be a typo of 59-60?

Thanks

C.Y.
CRUDE-FOR-M 6-4-2016

REPLY: Oil is playing out within the scope of everything. We elected the two Weekly Bullish Reversals in the week of May 9 at the $45 level. Our first target for the reaction high was June, and we had two Panic Cycles for April and May back-to-back. After June, we saw September. Yes, we warned with the February closing that everything held on our numbers, which was implying a rally was coming in the wind. In March, we elected the Weekly Bullish at 38.40. That is when we warned the next target would be 45-49: “The two primary targets are at the $45 and $49 level. That has to be exceeded to hope for a rally to reach the formidable resistance zone in the $69-$70 area.”

The numbers are always the numbers. They will beat my personal opinion every time. You simply move from one to the next. We have just witnessed gold do the same thing with our 1206 number. It crashed last week after falling to 1201, despite electing a Weekly Bearish of 1225 the week before. However, it held the Bearish Reversal. Whenever this happens, the market is telling you something. So what will not go down, goes back up and vice versa.

There are way too many markets for me to comment on all the time. I am looking to begin fading into the sunset after unleashing Socrates. It takes a computer to track everything and correlate the entire world. Humans are incapable of monitoring everything and computer models that people sell are FLAT MODELS, meaning they analyze each market in isolation. That may work for a while, but they always blow up because they can never see the wildcard coming from outside that market.

 

CRUDE-FOR-W 6-4-2016

As we approach June, we must respect that May was a perfect three-month reaction that slightly exceeded $50 but failed to close above the Monthly Bullish in the $49 level. Therefore, caution is now advisable. If the market wanted to continue a bullish rally, it could have closed above our number, as it was right there, but did not. Therefore, we should be on guard for a reversal of fortune. Yes, you can still exceed the May high and suck in more people, but that may not be sustainable. So now, we must refocus on the bearish reversals beneath the market. For now, a weekly close below 4320 will signal a decline is developing. However, a weekly closing below $46 may produce the same result if we make a new high in the coming week of June 6.

By the way, it was not a typo. The formidable resistance zone is in the $69-$70 area. But that will take a continued rally into September. Without a monthly closing above a Monthly Bullish (even one), that does not become likely.

BREXIT Report – The Fate of Britain & Europe

June 6, 2016

BREXIT Report Cover-R

On June 23, the people of Britain will decide whether to exit (BREXIT) the European Union. The outcome of this historic vote will determine Britain’s future. This is an incredibly important vote for it will determine the fate of, not just Britain, but Europe as a whole.

BREXIT Index

This special “BREXIT” report answers many of the questions surrounding the vote and explores the historical patterns that have a tremendous impact on where we go from here.

This vote will decide the fate of Britain and Europe, and will directly impact the trend in global currencies that will impact the United States and the fate of the dollar.

The report covers Britain and its 309.6-year cycle and provides the forecast for the British pound and the euro/pound cross rates.

Purchase the “Brexit” report — $250

(All reports are delivered via e-mail within 3-5 business days)

Switzerland Votes “No” on Universal Free Income for Life

June 6, 2016

No WOrk

Well, believe it or not, the younger generation is extremely socialistic. Just tell them they will get something for nothing and they are on board. I suppose this is what we get for telling them to pay for schooling and degrees that they cannot find a job with. n Switzerland, they pushed for an actual vote on

In Switzerland, the youth pushed for a vote on universal income where every citizen would receive ga lifetime monthly payment of 2500 Swiss francs, no matter where they live, and they do not have to work or ever earn anything. This is more than most people earn in retirement checks after a lifetime of work. The solution — just give’em the money now. Why work for it? Seems like a waste of a life. They just want to cut to the end. This is the legal way to rob your neighbor so you do not ever have to work.

Well, the proposal to guarantee a minimum monthly income of 2500 Swiss francs lost 76.9% to 23.1%. It could have, over time, lead to scrapping unemployment and social and pension payments, but it would have been in a dead-heat race with bankrupting the state, which probably would have happened first. The proposal was promoted by Daniel Haeni and Enno Schmidt who are really out of touch with how the economy functions. This same idea has been talked about in Canada and the USA.

ECB Begins Buying Corporate Bonds

June 6, 2016

ECB European Central Bank

The European Central Bank (ECB) will start buying corporate bonds on June 8. This will broaden Quantitative Easing by expanding it to a new asset class in a desperate struggle against deflation. The Governing Council meeting in Vienna maintained the refinancing rate at zero and the deposit rate at -0.4 percent as a component of its asset purchases of 80 billion euros per month.

This type of stimulus is, at least, far better than buying government debt. Governments do not create jobs that truly contribute to economic growth because government produces nothing. Unfortunately, buying corporate bonds from bankers only means they are relieving the banks of paper they do not want. The ECB is hopelessly fighting against the wind of deflation because they do not control the fiscal side of the balance sheet. We have the European Commission plotting against the economy by attempting to raise taxes at every possible turn on top of creating a Byzantine system of serious over-regulation that prevents business expansion and formation.

The superficial view of how this will stimulate the economy is always good for a bounce, as people trade within the noise of a market defined by resistance and support. However, the long-term prospect of this actually reversing the trend or “stimulating” anything is hopeless.

Comments from France

June 6, 2016

June 2nd Protest France

COMMENT #1: 

The current protests are not “The People against the State” and therefore it is not a revolution. It is the Left (CGT union and alike) against the Left (Presidency); it is a family affair like currently between Amber Heard and Johnny Depp.

When these people rioted in my street, the REAL PEOPLE on their balcony INSULTED them. How could the real people walk in the streets with these bastards to make a revolution? They gather 2-3% of the votes in elections ! They ravaged everything for 20 minutes including a bank. We called the police who’s station is just 100 meters always and they didn’t show up until 20 minutes after their departure ! The police is not using water cannons and they are releasing within hours those who burn police cars and injure policemen.

The real risk is when the REAL PEOPLE clash with the PROTESTERS. That would bring an interim military cabinet who would delay the 2017 election. There is already General Didier Tauzin who announced he is running for President.

REPLY: They are calling this the second French Revolution, but you are correct, it is not the people so much as the left unions. We have the same problem in the States with government workers against the people.

French Polls

COMMENT #2: 

Hello Mr Armstrong,

A single image that would suffice to understand the situation in France : Hollande is at a historical low approval rate, 11%.

The common reaction is : “How come he enjoys so much support ?”.

Honestly, I think Hollande does not get it. He likes to show how satisfied and proud of his achievements he is, which people see as a permanent provocation. He’s as clueless as you can get.

On the other hand, Manuel Valls is an arrogant, angry and brutal prime minister who often uses a martial rhetoric to silence anyone who questions his judgment. The man is known for having some serious mental problems. Be sure that if this man could, he would turn France into a dictatorship overnight.

Hopefully, Hollande is weak and unable to make decisions. He’s known to be a pathological liar, including in his private life. Being a natural born coward makes it impossible for him to take any responsability, even the smallest. When a problem occurs, he usually run away after having scapegoated someone else for the mistake.

Regards.

Elysée Palace
COMMENT #3:

Hello Mr Armstrong,

Some news from France where the global atmosphear is looking like a complete moral and political meltdown.

The french president François Hollande, his ministers, especially the head of the Ministry of the Economy Emmanuel Macron, can’t travel in France. Ministers have been ordered to reduced their trip to a “strict minimum”. The bill to reform the job market regulations is at the epicenter of the broader french society existential crisis.

Here is a link for the record related to the great difficulty the government experience to move within France :

I discuss extensively with thousands of French from various background and regions. I think the anger is at an all time high. It’s pure hatred for the government, politicians and, because the leading one, Hollande and his prime minister Valls. People are more and more convinced that France is becoming a “socialist dictatorship”.

Thanks to police forces, Hollande is still alive, but if it were not for the cops, the crowd would already be sitting in the Elysée Palace.

I talked with a a person from Belgium leaving in Romania with high levels connexions in Brussels. They’re terrified about 2017 for they know Alain Juppé (former Chirac Prime minister, crooked as possible) or Sarkozy won’t be able to lead France for it is more of the same and people are all too aware of it.

I remember you told me that your computers do not see Sarkozy winning. I don’t see Hollande winning. And i don’t think Le Pen can win. It looks like a dead end at this stage.

Regards.

REPLY: This is not just a French revolution, it is a worldwide revolution. We are seeing it in America, Britain, Spain, Germany, Italy, and Greece. Everyone has simply had enough of politics as usual. The elite around the world are in a complete state of denial.

Comment on Voting in BREXIT

June 6, 2016

BREXIT On Schedule

COMMENT:

Dear Martin,

When I first started voting in the UK at 18, I used to take my balllot card and driving license with me for ID purposes.

But to my surprise, nobody ever asked me for ID. Not even the ballot card. Then I started asking them, “Don’t you want to see my ID? I could be anyone. What if this bloke comes in later, and I’ve voted instead of him?”.

I’ve even put it down in front of them, and they ignore it completely. They just laugh and smile, as if I’m an idiot for suggesting it, and say, “It’s not needed”.

Nobody’s ever checked my ID in 29 years of voting. So they’re not going to start doing it now…

Regards,

N

REPLY: So much for EU members not voting to keep Britain in. Voter fraud should be expected as it is just more of the same.

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