Wikileaks – Where is the Case Against Assange?

The case against Julian Assange is all about exposing the truth that goes on behind the curtain. There has NEVER been any allegation that the information he has released was false. Even the emails from the Democrats that they blame on hacking by Russians have NEVER been denied as fake. All of the information that has been released is REAL.

So where is the crime? The crime is that the people have no right to know what the government is doing illegally. It is why Snowden is in Russia. These people are threats to the government — not the people. The Democrats protect a whistleblower when the leaked info supports a faction in the government. The government is NOT the sovereign of the nation, and that is clearly stated in the Constitution — We the People.

This begs the question: who is the real traitor?

Why Has IBM’s Watson Failed?

QUESTION: Marty; Socrates has done a fantastic job in picking turning points, rallies, projections for resistance, so many things. Yet IBM’s Watson was supposed to blow everything out of the water and find the cure for cancer and it has failed miserably. What did you do that IBM did not?

Also, the rumor is that China has made you a huge offer even citizenship because they intend to be the leader in AI. That’s why you’re having a WEC in Shanghai. Is there any truth to that since Socrates covers all of the main Chinese stocks as well?

JH

ANSWER: IBM’s Watson was simply a giant neural net. I have explained before that I toyed with that back in the 1980s and quickly saw that it would lead nowhere. Real Artificial Intelligence is something that learns and analyzes on its own to create its own conclusion. In all honesty, 99.999% of what people present as AI are simply expert systems that can be distinguished rather easily because all they are doing is looking up some subject from rule-based systems.

IBM’s Watson could search the entire internet and gather every piece of information possible. That was the easy part. What IBM lacked was the expertise in how to do research. How do you know that one piece of info is the key or more important than another? They lacked the ability to create a real analysis capability.

Neural Nets were a great hope that somehow you just throw in all this information, shake well, and out will magically appear the answer. The presumption was that our minds are just supercomputers and they ignored perhaps the critical understanding of what makes one person brilliant at math and another a brilliant artist who can’t count beyond 1,000.

This theory that our minds are simply supercomputers ignored some critical traits and how to distinguish one person from another. There was this idea that if you create a neural net and stuff in all this knowledge it will learn all by itself. This was just a giant fiction to me, which was up there with the theory that somehow the machine will come to life and decide it wants to rule the world and take over humankind.

My approach was to teach it HOW to analyze, not WHAT to analyze. I created in the code as much of myself as I could without the human flaws that keep life interesting. I taught Socrates HOW to analyze and did not leave that to the chance of a neural net that cannot be tested.

I then had to teach it language so I could communicate with it to try to understand how it arrived at such a conclusion. I used my children to improve Socrates’ language skills back in the 1980s. I wrote a program to have an ongoing conversation with them. My daughter believed it was alive and would bring her friends over to show them a computer that talked.

Now as for China, no I do not have an offer from the Chinese government. We have been focused on expanding our services into China and we are not blocked like most other analysts because they do understand it is a computer writing all these reports so there is no risk of a person sneaking into paragraph three and writing, “BTW, overthrow your government.”

Yes, I would take in a major partner who brings something to the table in the field of expertise. This is not a start-up operation. We do not need money to fund a theory. We have clients in more than 137 different countries and a track record of more than 40 years.

And no, we have not been approached by IBM.

The ECM & Who to Blame

COMMENT: You are dangerous. The stock market peaked on your model again but nobody’s models work like that so it is just more proof you don’t advertise because you are way too influential. So what are you up to now? You are against the progressive movement and you will undermine what we work for to unseat people like you.

SB

REPLY: Well I was in contempt when the 2007 target hit. They called it Armstrong’s Revenge. Granted, it was even the very day that Goldman Sachs sold their notorious portfolio right at the top for which they were charged with fraud. Did they use the model or did the model forecast when they would sell?

Sure, people like you can always blame me, but just perhaps this is a model that exposes the hidden order in the appearance of chaos. You can choose to dismiss it and claim it is all just me and my influence. No matter what they have done to me, the model still worked even when I never said a word.

That’s your loss. Your closed mind prevents you from ever seeing the real world. Keep believing you can suppress the rest of us because you want a life where everything comes free. Sorry, the government is not your parent. I have no problem moving to Asia and let you and your friends tax each other until death.

Don’t worry, when I am dead, the model will keep going. Even Athens fell in 404BC to Sparta right on time. I don’t think I was around then to influence that, or the climates changes, or the rise and fall of just about every empire throughout history.

So blame me if that really makes you feel better. But there is something much more important influencing everything besides me.

Interest Rates and the Great Global Crisis

COMMENT: I attended your 2016 WEC and I thought you would be wrong that interest rates would rise and the whole big bang thing. Rates have risen only in the US, the pension crisis is clearly unfolding, and states have been going bust. Now there is the Repo Crisis and I did buy the report. I will return to the WEC this year. I realize that you are able to forecast long-term trends that nobody else can even see.  Here in Australia, my God, it seems like the government has become occupied by Nazis who were also hunting money.

Good on ya!

PD

REPLY: Yes, most people have no idea that Hitler had passed similar laws that made it illegal to have a bank account outside the country. That prompted Switzerland to adopt its secrecy laws. Western governments are doing exactly as Hitler did. Oh yes, he killed a lot of Jews and others. But make no mistake about it, that was not just hatred. It was profitable. Hitler confiscated all their assets and then harvested even the gold in their teeth.

Just scan history and you will see a pattern. Henry VIII created the Church of England but confiscated all the assets of the Catholic Church. Constantine the Great adopted Christianity as the major religion and then confiscated the assets of the pagan temples. The only leader who confiscated assets of the Church without pretending he was adopting another religion was Napoleon. The Spanish Inquisition persecuted people, including the Jews and Arabs. However, that was also profitable for they confiscated their assets.

The rule of law in England at the time of the American Revolution had 240 felonies. The penalty was death so there too the king confiscated all your assets and threw your family out on the street. Just follow the money. Now they call it criminal to hide money from the government. It is money laundering to put cash in a safe deposit box — read the fine print — it can be confiscated! The criminal law is far too often used for the financial gain of the state.

As everyone knows, I turned out to be an institutional adviser. Consequently, the model that I developed had to be able to forecast the trend of all time levels. It was critical to be able to provide a reliable forecast out for 10 years when truly planning strategy for multinational corporations. That is why we had over $2.5 trillion under contract when the US national debt was just $6 trillion. We were by far the largest international adviser in the world.

The disparity in the rates between the USA and those in Japan and Europe are all part of the crisis in both liquidity as well as international banking. The vast majority of derivatives out there are interest rate related. Europe has a major, major, major problem. An uptick in interest rates will be devastating in so many ways. It will not only cause major losses for the ECB portfolio of bonds with over $12 trillion in negative-yielding bonds, but then you have the derivatives market.

On top of that, to make derivatives safer, after 2007 the government insisted that all derivatives had to go through a  central counterparty clearing house (CCP)  agent. As you can see, the 2018 annual report showed that Deutsche Bank also acts as a CCP to which it guarantees another €21.6 trillion Euros of exposure.

This experiment with negative interest rates has created a nightmare from which we are desperately afraid to wake up because it could be very real.

Shanghai

This year we are holding three World Economic Conference events — Shanghai in May, Frankfurt in June, and then Orlando in November. Each will be focused on the local region within the scope of the global context. Many people have indicated they want to go to Shanghai and kick the tires personally. You can apply for a visa and then visit Beijing and the Great Wall as well as the Forbidden City. They are spectacular things to see while you can.

You do not need a visa to visit Shanghai if you have an ongoing ticket to another city, not just a return. So fly to Shanghai, then to Hong Kong, and home. I believe you are allowed to stay for up to 7 days on that basis. Make sure you check yourself because things change. So if you want to see Beijing, just apply for a visa. It’s not a big deal.

The Frankfurt WEC will focus on the crisis in Europe. The Orlando WEC will be naturally focused on the world economy and we will have the results of the 2020 election in the USA by that time.

There will be special tickets for those attending all three events or just two.

Newfoundland Biggest Snowstorm Even on Record 01/18/2020 on ECM

30-second timelapse of 24 hours of snowfall in Newfoundland, Canada.

COMMENT: St. John’s Newfoundland, Canada had experienced the most snowfall in a twenty-four hour period on record on January 18, 2000, ECM day.

FM

REPLY: Stay warm up there. Greta thing you should turn off the heat. No worries! I wouldn’t suggest that right. It is curious that it was on the ECM data, but probably more of just an interesting antidote for the books. But this 2020 target is the beginning also of a new Solar Cycle which may be the lowest in at least 200 years and possibly retest the Litlle Ice Age period. Let’s hope this is not a take of every year. It fell to the low 50s here in Florida. Obviously I was mistaken, I should have moved further south to find global warming.

Davos Today

QUESTION: Marty, you are not in Davos?

KS

ANSWER: No, too cold right now. I have people there who provide anything critical from behind the curtain. There is nothing I can say that would be important that anyone would actually do more than listen. I have said many times, there is NOTHING we can do to prevent what is coming. World leaders will ONLY take action when the economy begins to Crash & Burn. The climate activists there will ensure they will destroy the economy and they are socialists who want people to be punished for driving cars and heating their homes.

30-second timelapse of 24 hours of snowfall in Newfoundland, Canada.

Here is the face of Global Warming in Newfoundland. Just a small snowstorm.

Hillary Refuses to Support Bernie & Dark Secrets of the Past

COMMENT: Marty, your writings are always ahead of the curve and your sources are amazing. Just read today Hillary gave an interview and she is obviously trying to stay in the mix. She came out and said about Bernie Sanders: ”He was in Congress for years. He had one senator support him. Nobody likes him, nobody wants to work with him, he got nothing done. He was a career politician. It’s all just baloney and I feel so bad that people got sucked into it.”

HB

REPLY: She wants to be the first woman president and that has always been her goal. It was the reason she married Bill. All my sources have always made it very clear she has been the driving force behind Bill. She has tolerated his countless women because she is really a lesbian and it has been all about power. Some younger women hate her. They call her a “feminine nazi” who has hated men. It was Madeline Albright who had the audacity to say there was a “special place in hell” for women who don’t support Hillary Clinton. She expects women to vote for her just because she is a woman regardless of her political positions.

I have known women politicians like Maggie Thatcher. NEVER was there any emphasis that she was qualified because she was a woman. It was always about the issues – NEVER about gender. Hillary has NEVER gotten beyond the ’60s. She relives it every day in her world. She has been mad as hell because she was not born a man. It is well known that Bill Clinton lives in New York and Hilliary Clinton lives in DC where they collectively own separate residences. Now they only appear together in official capacities because the Clinton’s have a political partnership, not a marriage. Gennifer Flowers revealed in an interview that would ONLY be published in London, that she and Bill would have been together now if it wasn’t for Chelsea. She reported that Bill confided in her that Hillary was bisexual.

When they first got in the White House, a friend of mine who was the former chairman of the Republicans for Ronald Regan in a state, called me to tell me that a Secret Service agent had walked in on the second floor in the White House and caught Hillary in bed with another woman. She picked up an ashtray and threw it at him hitting him in the head. It was just a few weeks in the White House. I did not believe it and asked if this was what I was going to have to listen to for the next 4 years? He said this came directly from the Secret Service. I still did not believe it. Then I read a small piece on the incident. Hillary’s conduct with other women in the White House was indeed coming from the Secret Service and the rumor mill was overflowing so much that the Secret Service was warned to keep their mouths shut.

The interesting aspect is that these stories would make the print, but typically OUTSIDE the USA – not within.

 

 

Market Talk – January 21, 2020

ASIA:

Many business leaders at the World Economic Forum raised concerns over whether the latest round of trade negotiations between China and US will result in a “phase two” deal before the end of President Donald’s first term. The biggest roadblocks that leaders identified for the phase two deal are US tariffs on Chinese goods and China’s pledge to buy more American products. A phase two deal is expected to lead to a rollback of billions of dollars of tariffs that the US first slapped on China in 2018.

Uber has announced it will sell its food delivery service in India to local rival Zomato. Uber will get a 9.99% stake in the Indian start-up, helping it maintain its presence in the sector. It will be interesting to watch in coming days if this acquisition will cause lay-offs when all UberEats Customers in India will be redirected to Zomato. The deal is likely to give Zomato an edge over its rival Swiggy in a fast-growing but fiercely-contested sector.

India’s much lower than expected GDP numbers are the single biggest drag on its global growth forecast for two years, IMF Chief economist Gita Gopinath said at the WEF summit in Davos. The IMF chief also said that India was primarily responsible for the downgrade in global growth as the IMF cut global growth forecasts due to the economic slowdown in India and other emerging markets. The IMF has projected global growth at a rate of 2.9% for 2019 and 3.3% for 2020, which is 0.1% lower than October estimates.

Nikkei Asian Review reported that All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Singapore Airlines may announce a new joint venture as early as this month, with the partnership going live in 2021. This joint venture would cover flights within Asia. This would be All Nippon Airways’ third joint venture, after their joint ventures with United (to the US) and Lufthansa (to Germany). ANA & Singapore wouldn’t be the first Japanese & Southeast Asia airlines to link. Japan Airlines and Malaysia Airlines entered a joint venture recently, which geographically is similar.

The major Asian stock markets had a negative day today:

  • Shanghai decreased 43.65 points or -1.41% to 3,052.14
  • Kospi decreased 22.95 points or 1.01% to 2,239.69
  • ASX 200 decreased 13.20 points or -0.19% to 7,066.30
  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 218.95 points or -0.91% to 23,864.56
  • Hang Seng decreased 810.58 points or -2.81% to 27,985.33
  • SENSEX decreased 205.10 points or -0.49% to 41,323.81

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.0032 or -0.47% to 0.6845
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.0015 or -0.23% to 0.6594
  • USDJPY decreased 0.35 or -0.32% to 109.82
  • USDCNY increased 0.04019 or 0.59% to 6.90759

Precious Metals:

  • Gold decreased 3.12 USD/t oz. or -0.20% to 1,558.89
  • Silver decreased 0.2588 USD/t. oz or -1.43%% to 17.8311

Some economic news from last night:

South Korea:

PPI (YoY) (Dec) increased from -0.1% to 0.7%

PPI (MoM) (Dec) increased from -0.1% to 0.3%

Japan:

BoJ Interest Rate Decision remain the same at -0.10%

New Zealand:

RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Dec) decreased from 49.60% to 48.90%

Some economic news from today:

China:

FDI decreased from 6.00% to 5.80%

Hong Kong:

CPI (YoY) (Dec) decreased from 3.00% to 2.90%

New Zealand:

GlobalDairyTrade Price Index decreased from 2.8% to 1.7%

EUROPE/EMEA:

Bloomberg reported that the EU is expected to lose around 11 billion USD next year due to the newly agreed US and China trade deal, as China has pledged to buy more from the US.

UK PM Boris Johnson announced that he wishes to conclude a trade deal with the US in parallel with the EU. British business leaders are calling for more clarity from Brexit, and are stating that the relationship with the EU was more important than the US.

Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai has called on both the US and the EU to create a plan to regulate the AI market. He stated the AI tech was too important not to regulate.

US President Donald Trump has now set his sights on the EU, stating that the two super economies must start negotiating a “big trade.” “A deal between ourselves and essentially Europe is something we all want to be able to make,” Trump said in Davos, Switzerland. Meanwhile, yesterday saw a truce by French President Macron and US President Trump regarding digital taxes as both sides agreed not to implement them this year.

A US ambassador to Iran said that it would send a very negative message to the world if Iran walks away from the nuclear treaty. Meanwhile, an Iranian MP has put a $3 million bounty on President Trump.

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • CAC 40 decreased 32.54 points or -0.54% to 6,045.99
  • FTSE 100 decreased 40.74 points, or -0.53% to 7,610.70
  • DAX 30 increased 6.93 points or 0.05% to 13,555.87

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.0006 or 0.05% to 1.1090
  • GBPUSD increased 0.0042 or 0.32% to 1.3046
  • USDCHF decreased 0.0001 or 0.01% to 0.9683

Some economic news from Europe today:

Spain:

Spanish Trade Balance increased from -2.58B to -1.86B

UK:

Average Earnings ex Bonus (Nov) decreased from 3.5% to 3.4%

Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov) remain the same at 3.2%

Claimant Count Change (Dec) remain the same at 14.9K

Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Nov) increased from 24K to 208K

Unemployment Rate (Nov) remain the same at 3.8%

Germany:

German ZEW Current Conditions (Jan) increased from -19.9 to -9.5

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) increased from 10.7 to 26.7

Euro Zone:

ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) increased from 11.2 to 25.6

US/AMERICAS:

President Trump spoke at the World Economic Forum this Tuesday in Davos, Switzerland. “The United States is in the midst of an economic boom – the likes of which the world has never seen before,” the president stated as he used his speech to boast US economic growth under his administration. Trump noted that two of the biggest trade deals in recent US history coincidentally occurred within the same week – phase one of the US-China trade deal and the signing of the USMCA. Trump stated he sees “tremendous upside potential” for continued US economic growth.

President Trump also used his platform in Davos to voice his dismay with the Federal Reserve. “The Fed raised rates too fast and lowered them too slowly,” the president said. Furthermore, he believes the Fed forced the US to “compete against nations with negative rates…they get paid to borrow money.” The Federal Open Market Committee will meet next week, and it is largely expected that rates will remain on hold for the remainder of the year.

Larry Kudlow, top White House economic adviser, predicts that the US’ GDP will rise by 3% in 2020. Kudlow called economic growth during the Trump administration a “mini-upcycle” within a long cycle. “We’re now down to 2.5% to 3%. I’m looking for faster growth: I think we’re going to get 3% this year. The trade deals will help, the Fed changed policy — that was very, very important,” he told reporters at CNBC.

The US Army is contemplating building a massive sea wall to protect the New York-New Jersey harbor from future hurricanes and natural disasters. Project “Alternative 2” would be composed of surge gates connected to artificial islands that span over a six-mile radius. The project could cost anywhere from $119 billion to $200 billion to implement over a 25-year period, and scientists are still unsure whether such measures could actually protect the area from environmental disasters.

Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou’s trial began in yesterday in Vancouver, Canada. China has repeatedly called on Canada to release the Huawei heir, but the US is adamant that she be extradited to the US to face trial for alleged bank fraud and illegal dealings with Iran. Wanzhou’s lawyers claim that US-imposed sanctions on Iran are at the center of this case. “In a typical case, double criminality is not contentious. This case, however, is founded on an allegation of breach of US sanctions, sanctions which Canada has expressly repudiated,” Wanzhou’s lawyer stated.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 152.06 points or -0.52% to 29,196.04
  • S&P 500 declined 8.83 points or -0.27% to 3,320.79
  • Nasdaq declined 18.14 points or -0.19% to 9,370.81
  • Russell 2000 declined 13.74 points or -0.81% to 1,685.90

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 25.11 points or -0.14% to 17,572.28
  • TSX 60 declined 1.36 points or -0.13% to 1,047.14

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 1,835.59 points or -1.54% to 117,026.04

ENERGY:

China has found oil and natural gas for the first time onshore in China.

The EIA reported that it sees Brent prices going lower into May due to and premiums associated with global geopolitical risk reducing.

The oil markets had a negative day today:

  • Crude Oil decreased 0.5404 USD/BBL or -0.92% to 58.3302
  • Brent decreased 0.71 USD/BBL or -1.09% to 64.4234
  • Natural gas decreased 0.0203 USD/MMBtu or -1.06% to 1.9045
  • Gasoline decreased 0.0042USD/GAL or -0.25% to 1.6495
  • Heating oil decreased 0.0452 USD/GAL or -2.40% to 1.8314
  • Top commodity gainers: Wheat (1.74%), Orange Juice (0.79%), Oat (0.78%), and Cocoa (0.75%)
  • Top commodity losers: Palladium (-3.87%), Cotton (-2.82%), Heating Oil (-2.40%), and Copper(-1.90%)

The above data was collected around 15.50 am EST on Tuesday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.00%(-1bp), US 2’s 1.53% (-2bps), US 10’s 1.77%(-6bps); US 30’s 2.23%(-6bps), Bunds -0.25% (+1bp), France 0.01% (-4bp), Italy 1.39% (+3bp), Turkey 10.69% (-10bp), Greece 1.39% (-64bp), Portugal 0.44% (+5bp) Spain 0.42% (-3bp) and UK Gilts 0.64% (-1bp).

  • Spanish 3-Month Letras Auction increased from -0.584% to -0.499%
  • Germany 2-Year Schatz Auction increased from -0.640% to -0.580%
  • US 3-Month Bill Auction remain the same at 1.530%
  • US 6-Bill Auction decreased from 1.530% to 1.520%

 

West Virginia & the Separatist Movement

There is a new separatist movement forming in Virginia over the proposed gun laws. This new separatist movement taking place is in a state that already separated into two back in 1863 which some question whether it was lawfully carried out back then.

US Constitution: Article IV: Section 3
New States may be admitted by the Congress into this Union; but no new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or more States, or Parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.

The interesting question was that since Virginia moved and joined the Confederate States, was their consent still required if they did not regard themselves to still be a state of the union? Hence, West Virginia was formed during the American Civil War (1861–1865) and is actually the only state to form by seceding from a Confederate state. The western part of the state of Virginia (1776–1863), was deeply against the views of the rest of Virginia over slavery. The population of West Virginia moved to separate from Virginia and was formalized by admittance to the Union as a new state in 1863.

Today, we have yet another rising separatist movement within Virginia as a result of House Resolution 8 which was introduced on January 14, 2020. This provides for an election to be had, pending approval of the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Virginia, and a majority of qualified citizens voting upon the proposition prior to August 1, 2020, for the admission of certain counties and independent cities of the Commonwealth of Virginia to be admitted to the State of West Virginia as constituent counties, under the provisions of Article VI, Section 11 of the Constitution of West Virginia. The Legislature of West Virginia separated over the differences which had grown between the counties of Western Virginia and the government at Richmond, of the Commonwealth of Virginia. They concluded that they were irretrievably divided and therefore they formed a new State of West Virginia.

The Trans-Allegheny portions of Virginia perceived that they suffered under an inequitable measure of taxation by which they bore a disproportionate share of the tax burden in the state which is often a common complaint under socialism. They have argued that the Trans-Allegheny region has been denied its equitable share of representation in the government prejudiced by a large number of people demanding benefits from Richmond.

The realization that when the majority demands benefits from those who produce, much like Rand’s Atlas Shrugged, then the majority can impose tyranny upon the minority and thus government no longer becomes the unbiased arbitrator within society. The neglect for the interests of many of the remaining counties of the Commonwealth of Virginia is at the heart of this rising separatist movement.

More recently, the government at Richmond has adopted the restraint upon the rights guaranteed under the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution to the citizens of that Commonwealth. In the months since Democrats took control of Virginia’s government for the first time in over two decades, over 100 localities across Virginia have passed resolutions declaring themselves “Second Amendment Sanctuaries,” stating that they’re opposed to any bills which would restrict Second Amendment rights.

There is rising tension in Virginia ever since the Democrats took control of the State.