All posts in " Bonds "

PRIVATE BLOG – Can US Bonds Go Negative?

July 30, 2019

PRIVATE BLOG – Can US Bonds Go Negative? Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit

Are Central Banks Supporting Share Markets?

July 10, 2019

QUESTION: Hi Marty, Happy 4th July to you & your team. My question is: Have the Central Banks now created an asymmetric trade (free bet!) with respect to the stock market? It appears they cannot let any market fall. Sincerely, Alan ANSWER: I understand many people always look for some party to blame for a […]

When Bonds Become Money

July 4, 2019

QUESTION: You said the “crash is in the debt markets”. Can you please explain how that will evolve? Liz M. ANSWER: Once upon a time before 1971, there used to be a difference between debt and cash. Government bonds were not acceptable for collateral. You could not borrow against them. You had to liquidate them. […]

Moving from QE to Just Monetizing Government

May 10, 2019

QUESTION: Mr, Armstrong; Why the push for lower interest rates again in developed markets? You have stated the QE has been a total failure. Are they incapable of doing anything else? KE ANSWER: We are switching from QE to a new reality of budget management. If interest rates rise on government bonds, the budget blows […]

The Consequence of War that Led to the German Hyperinflation

April 23, 2019

QUESTION: Everyone has a chart of the German DAX postwar. I have never seen a chart of the German stock market before the war. Do you have any? HVS ANSWER: Yes. However, you must understand that because the world was on a gold standard, the arbitrage volatility was reflected in the bond and share markets […]

Inverted Yield Curve Points to Recession?

March 28, 2019

Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bill fell below that of the 3-month note for the first time since 2007. This is what everyone calls an Inverted Yield Curve, and is seen as an early indicator of a recession. In that regard, it is conforming to the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) which has […]

World Economy – Which End is Up?

March 6, 2019

QUESTION: Hey Martin First of all, great work with the new Socrates. Thank you very much for getting it to us. You have said that rates are exploding with fed raising rates for the pension funds and because of the lost confidence in government, at least here in Europe. Am I correct when I take […]

Private v Public Pension Funds & Who MUST Own Govt Bonds

January 29, 2019

QUESTION:  Martin. Do you give credence to the work of … ? Can’t government pension funds be privatised or sent to open market? Thank you. NM ANSWER: No, I do not. The problem is far more complicated. First, you clearly have tremendous losses already. If you privatized the various government pension funds, you then have […]

Bonds & The Record High Short Position Can Majority Be Wrong?

October 8, 2018

  QUESTION: Hi Marty, Can you help us better understand the dynamics of the sovereign debt crisis as it relates to US Treasuries? I know we are in a global debt crisis, which will also impact US Treasuries but it seems like short treasuries is the current consensus (I believe they are currently at the biggest […]

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