When Russia invaded Syria on the very day of the Economic Confidence Model, it signaled that Syria would be a focal point of this wave. Clearly, 2015.75 was the peak in government and we can see this from the rise of Trump and the anti-establishment vote that has produced perhaps the most insane political election in history. The fact that 63% distrust Hillary, which is greater than any president in history who has won, is just indescribable.

Assad has come out and stated publicly, “The West, especially the US, did not stop the Cold War even after the collapse of the Soviet Union.”

I cannot disagree with him. When I’ve asked why Russia is our enemy, the response used to be that they were Communists. Now, the reply is, well, they are Russian. Nobody really seems to know. Assad also came out and said that there was a sense of a third World War hanging in the air in Syria. Last week, Russian President Putin signed an agreement with Assad’s government to allow permanent deployment of Russian military forces in Syria. So that is it.

This entire mess is over oil. I have warned that this dispute simply began when Qatar wanted to build a pipeline through Syria to reach Europe and compete with Russia. Assad declined and now we have Saudi Arabia and Qatar funding Sunni terrorist groups to overthrow Assad, who is Shia, as confirmed in Hillary’s hacked emails. Even before the release of Hillary’s emails, there was evidence building that Saudi Arabia was funding the insurrections against Syria.

It was just one year after Qatar’s proposal that Assad began negotiations for another pipeline plan with Iran, which would carry Iranian gas to Europe across Iraq and Syria. Russia endorsed this project since it would clearly have more control over gas flow rather than the U.S. linked Qatar.

I understand that some people have said I have been advising Qatar behind the curtain. Yes, I had contact with the royal family of Qatar. Yes, I was a friend of Sheikh Saud bin Mohammed al-Thani who was a member of the Royal family of Qatar. Yes, he came to our office to see me a few weeks before he died in 2014. Yes, I visited him at his home in London. Yes, he offered Qatar as the headquarters for our operation. But we were friends simply because we shared collecting interests and politics was second.

Since I have focused on forecasting the world, I have come to meet some of the most amazing people around the world. Ultimately, everyone wanted to know what Socrates was saying. So in this regard, I have always had good inside sources. But I have not advised Qatar with regard to Syria or this pipeline project. I have been aware of both, but I was not involved in any strategic advising in this regard. We were personal friends because I had built the largest and most complete collection of coins to reconstruct the world economy. Qatar was always trying to get me to sell. That was it.

Needless to say, I am deeply concerned with the events to follow since this has lined up with the ECM to the day.

This is a video of Putin explaining the balance of power from the Russian viewpoint. He is absolutely correct in saying that an anti-missile system neutralizes opposition. It would certainly embolden the war hawks into believing that they could defeat Russia and rule the world at the expense of American and Russian citizens.

Montesquieu, who influenced the Founding Fathers in creating the Constitution, met the political leader and soldier known as the Prince Eugene of Savoy (1663-1736). The political discussions between these two men helped Montesquieu understand the evils of government and forged the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution and the right to bear arms. The Prince of Savoy was considered, even by Napoleon, as one of the seven greatest strategists in military history. He fought against the Turks (1683-1688, 1697, 1715-1718) and he fought against the French in the War of the Grand Alliance (1689-1691). He was also the teacher of Frederick the Great of Prussia (b 1712; 1740–1786) who he shaped into a brilliant military strategist.

The Prince of Savoy also fought in the War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714). Nonetheless, jealousy attached to his accomplishments and he was plagued by a rumor that he was really the illegitimate son of King Louis XIV of France, which he perpetually denied. Yet, Louis XIV was always ashamed of such offspring and he restrained the prince’s ambitions as if he was perhaps his son. So after 20 years of living in Paris and Versailles, he left France and offered his talent to Holy Roman Emperor Leopold I (1640-1705) who was fighting the Turks. He distinguished himself in the siege of Vienna in 1683 and his military career was born.

The Prince of Savoy acquired brilliant skill and wisdom that allowed him to see that military victory was merely an instrument for achieving political ends. He was Europe’s most formidable general who was wounded 13 times, yet always faced a world of cunning foes with conspirators at his back, which he regarded as the “hereditary curse” of Austria. He served three emperors: Leopold I, Joseph I, and Charles VI. Of these three men, Prince of Savoy considered that the first had been a father, the second a brother, but with the third, he was just the hired help.

He was a truly brilliant man of many talents. The Prince of Savory came to see standing armies as evil, for they were easily used because of the expense of keeping them. He came to see that there should be NO armies and that was the only way to reduce war. The brilliant insight of the Prince of Savoy greatly influenced Montesquieu, for this was his source that it laid the foundation for the right to bear arms, as the Second Amendment to the United States constitution. The underlying idea was to eliminate standing armies that feed the cycle of war.

The Prince of Savory was also a student of history. He understood that the early days of Rome were based upon citizen militias. The story of Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus reflected him coming from his farm to lead the army defending Rome and then returning to his land. This was such a profound story that even George Washington was part of the Order of the Cincinnati.

Indeed, there is a tremendous risk of standing armies and building huge defense systems. These people naturally want to play with the toys they create. It would give them such pleasure as if this were some video game for children.

On the other side of the coin, there are rumors that Russia has a whole new class of weapons that nobody knows about or quite understands, which were designed to defeat the American anti-missile defense system. If the US wants to engage Russia in the Middle East and compel them to invade through Iraq crossing the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, there is little doubt that Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons in the field to defend their troops.

If the US and Europe are foolish enough to enter that venue with boots on the ground, we may see China aid Russia since its economy is turning down and it would distract the population from an economic decline. China borders Afghanistan right next to Iraq. It appears that the US is backing the Sunni (including ISIS) and Russia has taken the side of the Shia. Keep in mind that both Russia and China can send armies in directly over land.

The stars are beginning to align, as they say, and the winds of war may be upon us to divert the people from revolution due to the collapse of socialism and all its promises.
War becomes a tool of conquest or diversion. We are in the latter stage of this motive. The world economy is crumbling before our eyes. There is not much we can do about it because governments are desperate to hold on to power. There can be no reform when that entails a loss of power on their end. They will fight until the very last drop of blood. The problem, though, it’s always our blood rather than theirs. I agree with the Prince of Savoy — standing armies are ultimately used.

All in all, it has been a rather uneventful day all the way from Asia through to the US. With much data on the horizon this week for China both the Shanghai and Hang Seng gaveup ground ahead of any surprises. Both indices finished the day around 0.8% lower, so it was left to the Nikkei to provide a beam of light closing positive +0.25%. Late in US trading the Nikkei has returned that move as the JPY has broken back below the 104 handle as safe-haven bids become the afternoon talk.

Europe opened heavy having seen the Asian session with sentiment uncertain yet again. The Italian banking sector was a hot topic of debate after shareholders approved a merger between Banco Poplare and Banca Popolare di Milano on Saturday. Interestingly, only the FTSE MIB closed in positive ground today. Other European indices closed between 0.3% and 0.9% lower today. Oil started to drift late European afternoon breaking the $50 level (WTI) eventually closing down 0.9% but did weigh on sentiment. With the ECB meeting again Thursday and additional data expected soon it really is no surprise that today was a reasonably quiet days trading.

US opened marginally lower and traded in a tight range as dealers take the opportunity to watch corporate results and balance risk. Oil continues to drift – in late trading losing around 0.75%; the DOW saw a small bounce into the close but still finished lower. The only true longer term theme appears to be continued USD strength coupled with the recent weakness in Turkish Lira and the Gilt market decline, even DB stock price seems to be behaving recently.

US Bonds reversed the recent steepening with a small 1bp flattener today. The whole curve was better bid with 2’s closing 0.815% with 10’s making 3bp to close 1.77% (-4bp) which puts 2/10 at 95.5bp. In Europe we also saw a revival for Bunds with 10yrs closing 0.055% closing the US/Germany spread at +171.5bp. It was not to be the same in peripherals as the market is concerned the only buyer appears it may be hesitant recently! Italy 1.4% (+2bp), Greece 8.28% (+7bp), Turkey 9.81% (+10bp), Portugal 3.23% (-3bp) and UK Gilts 1.13% (+4bp). Is worth mentioning the volatility today for 10yr Gilts. Early in London trading the yield hit 1.22% having been trading 0.52% only two months ago. In January the 10yr yield was around 2% but then the cable rate has seen a decline of 18%.

It appears that the first official retaliation against Julian Assange and Wikileaks has taken place probably by the Democrats since the organization started disseminating the hacked Podesta emails. WikiLeaks announced it has “activated contingency” plans after Assange’s internet link was intentionally cut off by a “state party”. It looks like the Obama Administration is getting really desperate to ensure Hillary become president.

Meanwhile, David Axelrod, one of Obama’s top strategists, is putting out the idea for Obama that Hillary Clinton should skip the final presidential debate because Trump said she should be tested for drugs. Well, she should be tested for knowing the questions in advance thanks to the media.

The preparation to declare the election a fraud is in high gear. The newspapers are full of the planted stories that Russia will hack the election to ensure Trump wins – not Hillary. The Democrats are now putting out the argument that Wikileaks’ source on all these emails is also Russia saying they use to be about the truth and are now a pawn of Trump and Putin. The Democrats are even trying to claim that the emails are fake. Moving the disinformation plot to cartoons demonstrates this is a full fledged campaign for the coronation of Hillary regardless of what the people vote. Russia will be blamed regardless of what Putin does. It is impossible to absolutely identify the hacker who is truly professional. You can trace it to an IP address, but that will be typically several layers deep rerouting it around the world. Someone in the USA can create a fake hack from Russia with the first IP being placed there. So there would be no possible way to prove it was the Russian government. This is all hype.

This Simpson episode had made the press in Russia. Homer cannot be found in the voter registration. Vladimir Putin, while on horseback, says: “Do not worry! My hackers let you, but that does not matter. 102% of votes received Trump. Business is business! “.

This is heating up on every front. NBC is claiming it has learned that CIA is planning a major cyber attack against Russia. This is all part of conditioning the American people that if Trump wins, it will be a fraud so they will not allow that to happen and call the whole thing void.

The perfect excuse has been set. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY the establishment will allow Trump to win regardless of the votes. It will be declared a fraud and probably an act of war. The preparations are in play.

Clearly, the stage is set to blame Russia for a Trump victory. They are prepping the media who 99% endorse Hillary; the press conspiracy to feed propaganda to the American people is in full swing. Meanwhile, Obama continues to support the Sunni in the civil war with the intent to attack Russian forces in Syria. Our model still shows the largest turnout may take place here in 2016. This scares the blood, no matter how cold, right out of the veins of the career politicians. The American press is committing suicide and have succeeded in becoming indistinguishable from Pravda (“Truth”) of the old Soviet Union. Power corrupts everything, including the press.

There are two scenarios running around behind the curtain. I reported the one that Obama would declare martial law, suspend the constitution and remain in the presidency declining to allow Hillary or Trump to take the throne, he would step aside and hand it to Joe Biden. Some counsel that is too extreme. Others are proposing that Obama still blame Russia, but then throw it to the Congress by means of the electoral college and that way keep it under the pretense of being constitutional. Any way you cut it, this does not look like they will allow Trump to take the White House regardless of the vote.

 
The United States Electoral College is the body that actually elects the President and Vice President of the United States every four years. The American people actually have no right to actually elect the president directly. Constitutionally, the states choose “electors”, who normally are pledged to vote for particular candidates. Hence, electors are apportioned to each of the 50 states in addition to the District of Columbia. The number of electors is determined by population and thus is equal to that state’s number of members of Congress. The Twenty-third Amendment granted the District of Columbia the same number of electors as the least populous state which equal three. Consequently, there are 538 electors which corresponds to the 435 Representatives and 100 Senators, plus the three additional electors from the District of Columbia. There are two exceptions where Maine and Nebraska do not vote on a “winner-take-all” basis. Maine and Nebraska use the “congressional district method” meaning there is one elector within each congressional district by popular vote.

Here comes the loophole. There is NO constitutional or federal law that compels an elector to honor any “pledge” and that is a hole big enough to fly a fleet of 747 planes through. Therefore, if they bullshit the people enough with the media supporting them, we will see the Electoral College hand it to Hillary regardless of how the people vote. This would be in line with our model which forecast 2015.75 was the peak in government and it’s all downhill from there. The candidate who wins the absolute majority of electoral votes, or 270 today, becomes president. The Twelfth Amendment provides for what happens if the Electoral College fails to elect a president or vice president, which could come into play here in 2016. Under this situation, then the House of Representatives will select the president. On four occasions, most recently in the 2000 presidential election between Bush and Gore. There, Gore won the popular vote with 48.4% and Bush had 47.9%. The Electoral College was 271 for Bush and 266 for Gore. Therefore, the Electoral College system has in fact resulted in the election of a candidate who did not receive the most popular votes in the election.

The election of a President who has not won in the popular vote also took place during the 1888 election. Grover Cleveland received 48.7% of the popular vote to Benjamin Harrison’s 47.9%. However, Harrison carried New York state and therefore outpolled Cleveland by 233 to 168 in the Electoral College. In the 1976 election, Carter carried 23 states with 297 electoral votes, while Ford won 27 states and 240 electoral votes. It has long been argued that the election of any President who received less than a popular vote plurality is really unfair and should be unconstitutional.

Only two Presidential elections (1800 and 1824) have been decided in the House. The election in 1876 after the civil war saw, South Carolina, Florida, and Louisiana submitted certificates of elections for both candidates. A bipartisan commission of Representatives, Senators, and Supreme Court Justices, reviewed the ballots. They awarded all three state’s electoral votes to Rutherford B. Hayes of Ohio, who won the presidency by a single electoral vote.

Our models are pointing to 2032 as the meltdown in the political system. This will be 52 years from 1980, with prior targets being 1928, 1876, 1824, and 1772. The current target of 2016 equates to 1964 and JFK’s assassination, 1912 and the defeat of the Progressive Party (Socialism), and 1860 with the Civil War. Each have been watershed events politically. It appears 2016 will live up to its target. Civil Unrest will rise significantly by rigging this year’s election.

“Marc made a convincing case to me this am that these sorts of restrictions don’t really get you anything…that Obama actually got judged MORE harshly as a result. He convinced me. So…in a complete U-turn, I’m ok just taking the money and dealing with any attacks. Are you guys ok with that?”

Wikileaks latest dump

Apparently, there are a lot of people calling for a crash in the stock market as usual claiming it looks just like 1987. Sorry, there is nothing of that magnitude showing up at this time. We did elect one Weekly Bearish Reversal back at 18368. However, the main bank of support lies at 17710 followed by 17330. Only a weekly closing below 17330 would hint of a more serious correction. We did rally back and closed above technical support at 18068 last Friday. Now we need to pay attention to this area for a breach of 18050 should mean PAY ATTENTION. A break of 17990 will be more of a warning and this means last week’s low of 17959.95 comes into play. This would warn of a possible drop to 17710.

Note this this coming week is a Directional Change as well as a turning point. Note that we have turning points every other week right now so the pattern looks to be choppy. The key week appears to be the week just after our conference, November 14th. The two primary targets remains November and January.

A weekly closing back above 18370 will signal a rally ahead. Until then, we are retesting support.

Just as Obama keeps ratcheting up the allegations that Russia will hack the elections to ensure Trump wins, in Russia they are warning their citizens that war is coming and it maybe nuclear. They are warning that NATO is retrofitting tactical aircraft for the use of nuclear weapons, “which is sign of preparation for war with Russia”.  A whole website has gone up in Russia dedicated to the World War III and one offering advice and how to prepare.

ABC News is reporting that Russian Television Warns of Nuclear War Amid US Tensions. US mainstream press is not questioning what is going on when we have a President who got the Noble Peace Prize. They are not looking at Obama floating all sorts of stories that a Trump victory will be proof of a Russian cyber attack. The Washington Post pitches the story that Russia wants war. Meanwhile The Daily Mail reports that the Kremlin calls Joe Biden’s threat to ‘cyber strike’ Russia ‘unprecedented’ and pledges to protect itself from the “aggressive, unpredictable United States”. CNN has reported that Russia and the US have moved past a Cold War to unpredictable confrontation.

Personally, I was just a kid in 1962. But I remember walking with my friends discussing the Cuban Missile Crisis which lasted for a 13-day period (October 16–28, 1962). That was the closest we had come to World War III until today. Confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union concerning Soviet ballistic missile deployment in Cuba even made kids pay attention. Along with being televised worldwide, it was the closest the Cold War came to escalating into a full-scale nuclear war. A 8.6 year plot from that event completed the 51.6 year wave terrifyingly on schedule – 2014.

It was 2014 when the new Cold War began with sanctions imposed on Russia by Obama. It has not worked to move the Russian people to overthrow Putin. This policy only escalated the entire confrontation starting the new Cold War. The solution was simple. Divide Ukraine between East and West and the Eastern Russian speaking people join Russia. The people should have decided – not bureaucrats in Washington.

Sorry to say, this latest confrontation is precisely on time.

Hillary Clinton has refused to release her Goldman Sachs speech transcripts for which she earned millions of dollars giving paid speeches. Besides the $945,744.00 Goldman donated to the Clinton Foundation (making sure it was under $1 million), they also paid Hillary $675,000 for just speaking at Goldman Sachs, which was clearly a pay-off for there is nothing strategic that one would pay for in these transcripts that would further the profitability of the firm in the future other than buying a seat in the White House to soften regulation. Tim O’Neill was the co-head of investment management at Goldman Sachs and he conducted the questioning. The full transcript is available at NPR, while the paid media tend to spin it claiming they are “stolen” and not “verified” as they naturally defend Hillary.

MR. O’NEILL: By the way, we really did appreciate when you were the senator from New York and your continued involvement in the issues (inaudible) to be courageous in some respects to associated with Wall Street and this environment. Thank you very much.

SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, I don’t feel particularly courageous. I mean, if we’re going to be an effective, efficient economy, we need to have all part of that engine running well, and that includes Wall Street and Main Street.

I think this this small portion says it all. It was pay-back time, nothing more. Anytime I’ve been paid to give a speech inside a major firm, it has never been warm and fussy. It’s always been – so what do you do now! But then again, I was typically paid $100,000 to speak internally and field whatever questions came my way from what country to set up in or leave to restructuring companies for the future and how to set up internal hedging departments. I was not paid $675,000. I suppose if you get the real big bucks, it’s just for the show – no substance or preparation required. Guess I gave too much info. Perhaps less is more?