Many are now blaming Colin Kaepernick for the sharp decline in American football ratings. Kaepernick began kneeling during the national anthem in the NFL preseason as a protest of the injustices against people of color because of Trump as if he has done something. Kaepernick has continued to protest in every game this season. Now, more than 40 football players have joined Kaepernick. Some are just taking a knee, and others are sitting on the bench. But the real disturbing display is that many now stand with a raised fist, including such stars like Denver Broncos linebacker Brandon Marshall, Miami Dolphins running back Arian Foster, and New England Patriots tight end Martellus Bennett. Other athletes also joined the protests outside of games. Given what they make in salary, they do not have a lot to complain about when they buy $300,000 cars and houses for millions. Kaepernick got a contract for $126 million to play ball – that’s it. That’s getting up there with Hillary’s speaking fees. Nevertheless, this is feeding into the civil unrest cycle that will turn bloody in the year ahead.

Super Bowl viewership peaked in 2015 and has begun to decline from a major 26-year high. There was a surge that began with the 2007 crisis. As the economy turned down, the viewership soared from 93 million to a major high that almost reached 115 million in 2015. This year fell to 111 million, which is actually the Bearish Reversal. So if 2017 comes in under 111, this will confirm sports have begun a bear market.

The players who think they have the right to turn their sport into political protests fail to understand that people watch such things to escape. Trying to use their status to remind them of what they are trying to ignore has already set the decline in motion — right on time. It looks like sports are a great short. This was made visible by the bankruptcy of Sports Authority who closed their last store on May 18, 2016. Clearly, 2015.75 was a major turning point that is not confined to the just the peak in government. As people turn their backs on sports, it reflects that they are getting angrier at the economic situation of government. Kaepernick may be remembered as the man who killed football.

I previously reported that Germany was teaching refugees how to get lucky with German girls. The education effort is continuing. In class, one tried the line “I love you. Can I sleep over at your place?” The professional lines being taught are  “I really love the scent of your perfume,” or “You have a beautiful voice.”

One refugee said, “It’s hard to meet a girl when you don’t speak the language well and can’t really talk to them. There are a lot of differences, not only the culture and religion — we just don’t have this total freedom at home.”

Your tax dollars are at work to make the refugee crisis work.

President-elect Trump’s appointment of Scott Pruitt is a major change from the Obama Administration’s insane EPA ‘climate’ regulations. Trump’s pick of Pruitt clearly means that he is standing up to the green establishment. Historically, EPA chiefs have all been just climate change advocates. Trump met with Al Gore and Leonardo DiCaprio who are Global Warming advocates (not experts), listened to them, and then ignored their advice.

Global Warming has become a religion, not a science. The so called paranoid environmentalists REFUSE to listen to any evidence that shows the climate changes have not been caused by man. They focus only on CO2 and not the energy output of the sun, which has led to all migrations for millions of years. There would never have been a reason to leave your cave unless you had to because of weather. Al Gore previous said all ice would be gone by now. We are headed into a new mini-ice age (hopefully mini).

No matter what evidence one submits, they refuse to even listen. They have gone so far as to advocate making it a criminal act for anyone to disagree with them. This will be the HUGE battle of 2017.

Today, any information ahead of something like a rate hike is seen as insider trading. But back during the 1970s going into 1981, things were different. The banks were not big proprietary traders. I would routinely get a call that the Fed would raise rates in 15 minutes. It was not that someone was trying to front-run in those days. They did not want to see anybody get hurt and lose a boat-load for clients.

Back in December 2015, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2006. Nobody was really surprised for instead of giving phone calls, the Fed publicly tries to telegraph its intentions for the same reason we use to get phone calls decades ago. The Fed has been trying to keep telling people it will raise rates and the general expectation is that they will do so on December 14th—almost exactly a year later—with a rate target range of 0.5-0.75%.

Janet Yellen, has confounded predictions including her own. A year ago, the Fed said it foresaw four rate rises in 2016. None has taken place yet. This might seem like deliberate confusion, but the Fed has been lobbied by the IMF and other countries, including Europe, pleading with it not to raise rates when they are trying to still punish people with negative rates. The IMF and emerging markets plead not to raise rates because they borrowed dollars.

However, the start of the year, stock markets were not booming, but dropped into January on worries about Chinese growth, which everyone has forgotten about as we head into January 2017. Then, in June, Britain voted to leave the European Union, sending markets spinning again for a while and the IMF pleaded for mercy. In September people again expected rate hikes, and again the IMF pleaded. Since June, Yellen has correctly been telling everyone that low rates at best have a modest impact upon the economy.

The Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates again, but this time people will be calling this the Trump Rally. However, beside the stock market booming on the expectation of lower corporate rates and deregulation, a year ago unemployment was already low at 5% and the economy has created an average of 188,000 jobs per month throughout the year.This has helped the labor-force participation of prime-age workers to return with jobs. It has been job creation that is pushing unemployment down in the USA, which fell to 4.6%, the lowest rate recorded since August 2007. This gives the needed confidence to raise rates.

Inflation is not yet back at the Fed’s 2% target. However, the surging bond yields, stock market, and a stronger dollar are all combining to put pressure on the Fed to raise rates. Yellen carefully suggests that a rate hike would not alter those trends.

Mario Draghi, extended the European Central Bank (ECB) $ 1.74 trillion bond purchase program to support the economy by nine months to at least the end of December 2017. This is far longer than most economists had expected. However, the monthly volume of currently €80 billion euros will drop to €60 billion euros from April 2017 onwards. In total, a further €540 billion euros will be pumped into the market. However, there is still no indication that thie will have any inflationary influence. All its appears to be doing is slowing the collapse buying bonds the private sector does not want.

According to German newspaper the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), the decision of the ECB to expand its bond purchases was objected to by the Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann. The newspaper reported that Weidmann had expressed objections and not voted. The Bundesbank did not wish to comment on the report, reported Reuters.

The euphoria created yesterday by the ECB continued in to Asia and especially Japan – again. The Yen has started to feel the heat as prices take out the 114 handle again and we make our way towards 115. The Nikkei closing the day up 1.25% has established a new high for the 2016. Producer Prices in China helped the Shanghai return 0.5% with the Hang Seng small lower after Casino’s took a hit due to new regulations surrounding the use of ATM’s within the casino premises. In late trading futures had reacted to positive western markets with the Nikkei adding over 1% with the Yen trading mid 115’s.

Since the election result in the States and the “experiment” (as one dealer expressed it to us) that is underway and the Trump administration is worth investigating the direct bearing on markets and their relevant sectors. Since November 8th stocks have rallied creating new all time highs with the Financials and Energy sectors leading the charge. Bank of America for example is up over 30% since the news, as talk of easing banking and energy regulations are just two of the topics under discussion; admittedly, the recent OPEC meeting helped. One key topic for the Financials performance (+20%) is the re-pricing of the bond market and the yield curve. Higher and steeper curve will project bank earnings which in itself changes the type of assets that will come to market. Soon we should see the return of FRN’s (Floating Rate Notes) and Convertible (Bond) Issuance. Given we have also seen the ECB escape yesterdays tapering mascaraed, although the EURO suffers the consequences’, it appears the core bond market (Bunds) remain unscathed. Peripheral Europe was not so fortunate with Italy, Spain and Portugal all under pressure but also 30yr German Bunds (+10bp 1.12%) which were probably missed as its the 5’s and 10’s spread that are more visible.

Stocks remain the only investment in town and fixed-income the hot potato. European indices closed small changed but Italy continues to suffer. In the US more historic highs were recorded and still with the talking heads expecting a pull-back. The more it records the greater the reversal will have to be in order the majority managed to get back in, which is why it will continue along its present path. All this with the DXY back up at 101.50 which is a double return for many international investors.

US curve another 4.5 steeper today with 2’s closing 1.13% and 10’s at 2.47%. German Bunds were initially stronger then retraced to close just 1bp lower (yield) at 0.36%, which puts 10’s/10’s at +211bp. Italy closed 2.04% (+4bp), Greece 6.57% (+4bp), Turkey 11.03% (+13bp), Portugal 3.81% (+11bp) and UK Gilt 10’s at 1.45% (+8bp).

We apologize that we had to turn away more than 300 people this year because we held only one session instead of two. In 2017, we will go back to two sessions. We are hoping to find accommodation in Hong Kong during May after the French elections and then we will go back to Orlando probably in November. This way we will have more seating available with two sessions.

Given the fact our model has been correct on the politics, stock market, gold, interest rates and the dollar, obviously more and more people want to attend. We respect the necessity to try to accommodate everyone. It’s not always easy.

We are trying to nail-down the venues now so we know how many people we can accommodate. Hong Kong has a smaller availability than Orlando. We are trying our best to make sure we do not turn away so many people in 2017, which is going to be very important as we head into the abyss in 2018.