QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Does you computer still project a Trump victory? It is beginning to look like it might be right.

ANSWER: Yes. It does not change. It projected that many years ago and it projected a rise in this anti-establishment/3rd Party movement would begin in 2016 following the 2015.75 turning point. It will not change based upon some new event. This is not me projecting my opinion. A lot of people have opinions – the talking heads of TV as people call them. As I have stated before, it is when the vote is extremely close that voter fraud can alter the result. That was the case with Bush-Gore election. The Supreme Court gave it to Bush but in the end, Gore should have won when the vote was counted.

We should see this election with a big turnout much the same as BREXIT. Donald Trump has taken nearly $ 100 million in just three months by small donations – more than any Republican before ever in history. That is actually more than two million donors supporting Trump than support his rival Hillary. Hillary takes the money from the elite like Goldman Sachs and Soros, as well as countless banks and hedge funds. They OWN Hillary and she outspends Trump. If we look at this measurement, the PEOPLE are lining up behind Trump more than Hillary. If Trump wins, this may also illustrate that getting all this money from banks and hedge funds to manipulate the people has failed.

This is the data that PROVES this is not my opinion. We have been showing these charts at conferences all the time. Our target has ALWAYS been 2016. This is not some fashionable forecast we just made up.

This is the view from the Electorial College.Note the blue line (Democrats) against the red line (Republicans). Look at how the Democrats peaked with the Great Depression and have been making lower high ever since. That is the classic bear market definition. Now look at the red line. You see higher high all the way into the 1990s. We may see the demise of the Democratic Party because it is clear, those in power in Washington are Democrat BEFORE they are American. They have made their choice to support Hillary regardless of what she has done. Therefore, they are Democrats FIRST and perhaps Americans even in third place after self-interest.

The Republican Party was infiltrated with the old right-wing Southern Democrats who pushed Reagan into the White House. They are now against Trump and turning back to Hillary because they want to invade other countries and rule the world – Nation Building. Trump has remade the Party so it has changed back to its pre-Reagan base. The Democrats were the party of Andrew Jackson who was the slave owner who did abuse his slaves and they remade themselves to fool the black community that they were their champions. It was amazing that they remade themselves. Hillary still claims she represents the poor minorities, calls people “Jew Bastard” and takes money from Saudi Arabia who is against women’s rights and gays. She claims to be against Wall Street, but the majority of her money comes from bankers and hedge funds.

That is the bottom-line. Just look at the donations and you see Trump has more LITTLE PEOPLE than Hillary. People vote, not hedge funds and banks. We will see. The debate tonight may be the defining moment. Our models on market have long been projecting September as a turning point followed by the next big one in January in many markets.

Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel has got to be the worse politician in history when it comes to understanding the economy. Merkel has ruled out any state assistance for Deutsche Bank AG in the year heading into the national election in September 2017 according to Focus magazine citing unidentified government officials. Merkel is just incapable of making any rational decisions whatsoever. This policy means any German who has money in Deutsche Bank is at risk and she may set off a major banking crisis if there is a run on the bank in mass. She is also saying that by no bail-out, government is not responsible for this crisis. They have been bribed by banks to begin with to allow them to do whatever with a relaxed regulation standard and then she wants to deny any responsibility. Her thinking that to bail them out will cause inflation that will hurt the people, she ignores that no bailout will hurt the least sophisticated people who trusted government. Anyone who reads this would naturally move their money out of Deutsche Bank. Hello? Is anyone home? Is there a light on in that dark region of their mind? Massive Quantitative Easy by Draghi buying even junk bonds has failed to produce inflation.

This is the very same policy Merkel applied to Greece that resulted in her image collapsing in July 2015 so she then opened the gates to the refugees. Merkel’s economic ideas are so devastating it is a complete joke. She will destroy the German economy for a bail-in with Deutsche Bank will shatter the German economy and most likely result in the final destruction of the euro.

If the Deutsche Bank AG goes down, we are talking about the biggest bank in Germany and Europe for that matter. She will utterly destroy the entire economy and this may be the tipping point that send massive waves of capital rushing into the dollar. She is deliberately imposing massive deflation upon Europe that no prospective quantitative easing by Draghi could possibly overcome. What Merkel has done to Europe is beyond comparison to any politician in history. This is a prime example of what we get when you put economic policy into the hands of people who have ZERO experience.

If the German people lose their savings, just how will the economy be stimulated by the ECB buying junk corporate bonds? If the PEOPLE do not spend, no level of negative interest rates will EVER reverse the economic trend. This is the worse possible decision any head of state could carry out. She will single-handedly destroy the EU and Britain may name BREXIT day a national holiday known as British Independence when this is all over.

The weekly White House Watch telephone survey by Rasmussen Reports finds Trump with 44% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 39%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson comes in at 8% of the vote, with the Green Party nominee Jill Stein registering only 2% and 3% prefer some other candidate altogether. The undecided is coming in at 5%. It is still entirely possible given the debate tomorrow night that Trump could get maybe the highest percent of the popular vote than any Republic in history. When it comes to terrorism, Trump is trusted well above Hillary. Certainly, a Trump victory would be the most interesting for the NY bankers will be start shaking in their boots. They have bought the media, polls, and the Democrats as well as the neoconservative Republicans. They do not own Trump. This may be the most entertaining president in history if he wins.

Do not underestimate the fight to rig this election. Hillary’s in-your-face corruption will be matched by in-your-face vote rigging. They stole California from Bernie to make sure Hillary was the candidate and then Hillary Clinton has hired the DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz who had to resign for being exposed that she rigged the votes against Bernie. This was more Hillary pay-off money.

Hiring Schultz was unbelievable public display of corruption. It demonstrates just how corrupt the entire system has become. They assume people are idiots and the media will NEVER compel Hillary to ever come clean.

This may be more than the demise of the Democratic Party who has publicly chosen to be Democrat before being American, it may also be the final nail in the coffin of mainstream media who have joined this conspiracy against the American people.

The government has its pawns cheering the end of money. They are screaming that $1.4 trillion exists in cash and half of that is $100 bills. Justine Underhill writes that ending cash could be great for the economy. I think that is only great for government for this is all about getting more taxes. Kenneth Rogoff, the great mouth piece for the government advocating the end of cash, put out another bullshit propaganda piece in book for: The Curse of Cash. He argues because of tax avoidance and criminal activity, there should be no cash. Rogoff says that the world is drowning in cash and this is what has been making us poorer and less safe. In The Curse of Cash, Rogoff argues that getting rid of most paper money would be the only way forward. He cares nothing for the people, and assumed the elitist approach to the issue.

The greatest problem with real estate is you cannot pick up and leave. The Federal Council in Germany is planning to re-evaluate the approximately 35 million homes in Germany. It is now expected that the result is likely to be a significant increase in the property tax. Administrative expenses for the state fund-raising action is very significant and more than 50% of municipalities were in financial trouble BEFORE the refugee crisis.

This is the final stage of property before capital begins to shift to equities. The significant difference appears before a major crisis or Dark Age event. The property becomes the target of taxation and as taxes become insane, property values decline. The end game is people just leave. This is how what use to be vibrant places to live become ghettos. If the cycle become extensive and people migrate just walking away, you go through the phase such as Detroit and move on to situations like Rome. They have no choice but to abandon the property. This can be created by excessive taxation or political instability such as an invasion.

Nigeria has begun the hunt for taxes as they target 700,000 firms as the country is desperate to look for more revenue as its income from oil has collapsed. Nigeria is Africa’s biggest economy and it has entered its first recession in more than 20 years as overspending produces only higher taxes, not economic reform. The current President is Muhammadu Buhari, since 29 May 2015. Politics began to change in Nigeria also going into 2015.75 turning point for government worldwide. The 2015 election marked the first time in the history of Nigeria that an incumbent president actually ever lost to an opposition candidate in a general election. So the ECM is truly a global model and not based solely upon a single country or trend.

Africa was the fastest-growing continental economy on the planet going into 2015. However, the one thing that was growing faster than the economy was of all is debt in every category from personal and corporate in the private sector to government. In 2015 Africa’s debt reach an untenable level and not the hunt for taxes has begun. In 2014 countries such as Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire (less than five years after a previous government-debt default), and Zambia all placed bonds worth as much as $1 billion into the market and these issues were oversubscribed because of the collapsing interest rates in developed countries. Kenya’s record-breaking sale of $2 billion in debt back in 2014 was also oversubscribed four times over.

Currently, Nigeria is struggling to fund a record $18.6 billion 2016 budget (6.06 trillion naira) that, following Keynesianism, is expected to stimulate growth by tripling capital expenditure. These measures are failing of a worldwide basis. Nevertheless, government are all following the same play book despite the fact it never works.

According to the IMF, back in 2009 the entire of sub-Saharan Africa raised almost $5 billion issuing bond, which included both private and sovereign issues. By 2013, that debt issue had grown to $14 billion and it exploded to about $20 billion by 2014. Africa’s total debt-to-GDP ratio dropped sharply to 30% going into the economic crash 2008-2009 only because of defaults and debt forgiveness. However, in some countries, this debt-to-GDP is exploding back up towards 70% or higher.

Rock stars had helped convince the international community to write off more than $100 billion of African government borrowings back before 2010. This time, the debts are back and have been exploding. It just seems as this debt-forgiveness never works for it hides the crisis and fuels them to do the same once again. it’s getting tougher for countries to pay them off.

Mozambique was indeed one of the biggest beneficiaries of debt forgiveness when its debt was written off by 86% of GDP back in 2005 to just 9%. The debt simply has grown all the way back to 61% of GDP. One has to wonder how stupid people are to lend government money.

Ghana’s debt was 82% of GDP back in 2005. Their debt was forgiven by 50%. It too has seen its debt climb all the way back up to 73% of GDP. However, back in 2003 terms, its debt was $7.5 billion. Today, the debt is now $25 billion.

Funds that have been rushing to lend into Africa should be sold now. Their investment rush into Africa reminds me after the 2005 debt forgiveness efforts of George Bush trying to figure our the fool me once line. How many times will these fund manager buy public debt that always ends up that they have to forgive it?

Today was the first day that the Nikkei cash has had to reflect upon the FED’s decision, as was closed Wednesday for a national holiday. Todays trading result was a small decline (-0.3%) which on the heels of the 2% rally Wednesday was quite refreshing. The other core markets also saw a small decline with the shanghai and Hang Seng both closing -0.3%. In late US trading we continue to see small selling but with volume very light and the weekend upon us, it is hardly worthy of discussion. The Shanghai continues to play at the 3k mark but with many markets making similar holding patterns it is only time before we make a decisive break.

Despite more weak data the USD continues to be the beacon for demand. Today it was the turn again, for the GBP to suffer, losing 0.9% to close again below the psychological 130 figure threatening the BREXIT break levels (128.00). FTSE performed best but that is because the GBP had already taken the heat. Interesting that because it is not a sudden move the GBP has not really made that much of CAC and DAX both lost around 0.5% whilst IBEX cost the most at -1.2%. The DAX opened almost unchanged and did attempt to rally but as the day wore on and oil started to slip, the market bailed to the selling as financials led the way, yet again.

US stocks traded heavy for most of the day and the selling increased in sympathy as oil declined (currently down 4%) but has had a reasonable run for the week. On the year the DOW closes a little over 5% up which on the twelve months is over 10%.

Now that this could turn into the most expected hike in years, could the markets be pricing it already? Despite the FED play, the market reacted to Wednesdays comments by pricing in the probability of a December hike at 68%, up from the previous 55% ahead of the statement. The bond markets have reacted with bull flattening as the chase for yield returns, along with credit tightening (for quality names).

10’s US closed 1.62% (-2bp), German 10yr Bund closed -0.085%; closing the US/German spread at +170.5bp. Italy 10’s closed 1.21% (+2bp), Greece 8.23% (-3bp), Turkey 9.29% (+6bp), Portugal 3.35% (+1bp) and 10yr Gilt closed 0.725% (+2.5bp).

The worldwide pension crisis is the next great notch in the belt of the collapse of socialism. If anyone in the private sector promised workers pensions and did not fund them, they would go to jail and be labelled as a fraud. Yet, this is standard operating procedure for government. Government claims to be some hero for reforming a Ponzi scheme and expects to be hailed by the media whom typically gives them a gold star.

Canadians are now being forced to save more for their retirement, and it does not matter what they want to do personally. As always, the scam involves forcing others to pay more so they can pay today what they promised. Ultimately, what they have done to Canadians is compel changes to benefits from 25% of covered earnings to a third. They also raised the ceiling on covered earnings from what would have been $72,500 in 2025 to $82,700. The bottom-line is rather stark. Some Canadian workers will actually be paying as much as 40% more in CPP contributions by that date.

There is no way they want to revisit this issue again because it created too much kick-back. So the Trudeau government has proclaimed the crisis is over and all is well. These schemes are outright illegal in any private context. This is why Obamacare is also collapsing. He sought to FORCE the youth to buy health insurance that they did not need to pay for others who couldn’t afford it. The scheme is always the same: take from one pocket to pay another.

Merkel admitted that the European Union is in a “critical situation” as the EU leaders met in Slovakia. I greatly appreciate all the emails asking why I do not go to Europe to push our solution to save the continent. But what you have to understand is we will ONLY get a call when there is blood on the streets and there is absolutely no other choice. I am not sure we could do much at that late stage in the game. Typically, you have to just capitulate in order to reverse the trend.

As we move into 2018, Europe is going to go through some very hard times. This is all being caused by bureaucrats in Brussels who are not willing to give up their pensions and jobs. They found the promised land for themselves and are determined to hold on til the end. Former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis is now calling for “a pan-European movement of civil disobedience and state that grows into a broad democratic opposition to the actions of the European elite at local, national and at EU level.”

However, the framework is just not functioning. The bureaucrats are trying to regulate everything and refuse to realize that they are responsible for BREXIT. They have become Byzantine and are killing the economy. British economic growth peaked in 1973 on an annual basis and has been declining ever since it joined the EU. The movie “BREXIT” was an excellent review of EU regulation to the point that they took away British fishing rights in their own waters. What if the government say you were not allowed to walk into your backyard, but everyone else could?

The Polish Prime Minister came out and plainly said, “The EU has to change, we have to reform it.” But Brussels refuses to change or ever concede defeat from their dream of an authoritarian power over Europe. This one-size-fits-all approach is destroying Europe. The EU has been doing nothing but defending its insane policies since 2008 when the euro peaked. The high in Europe came exactly on time with the ECM Wave on the EU.