Believe it of not, France is now imposing a 10k speed limit for those riding bicycles. They are using radar guns to ticket riders. When governments need money, they are very imaginative on how to come up with new ways to fine people to get their pound of flesh.

I heard from behind the curtain that a coup is developing inside the intelligence and law enforcement divisions to stop the Clinton Machine. I cannot vouch for the video going around as to its veracity. What I can say is that my own sources, who are separate and not involved in this video, have been warning me that this is culminating into a serious issue that will not fade away after the election.

There is no question that many people are preparing in some way to become more demanding that their country be returned to them. They are forming a militia in Georgia. Our model shows an uptick in civil unrest going into 2018. There is also no doubt that government has been preparing the military to effectively shoot down citizens, and ironically, that is precisely what they did in 1932 against the veterans of World War I. The government promised them money and never paid them.

The government sent in police and then the military led by General McArthur. Tanks rolled down the streets and they did kill veterans who were camping there with their wives and children. This was one major factor that turned the public against Herbert Hoover prior to the election.

So make no mistake about it: they will use the police and military against our own people. The question becomes who will the troops follow? Russia made Yeltsin famous because he stood on top of a tank and pleaded with the military not to fire on its own people. They backed down and the government fell.

Markets were dominated by the overnight news that the FBI would be taking no action over the newly uncovered Hilary Clinton emails! As soon as the news broke we saw positive price action for most core indices (cash and futures) with a decent bounce in the US Dollar whilst last weeks safe-haven bids (precious metals and treasuries) all lost ground. The Nikkei opened up over 1% with exporters leading the way given the instant currency hit, eventually seeing the index close +1.6% on the day. It took a little while before Shanghai and Hang Seng responded but both eventually did join the party but closed only moderately better. HSBC’s Q3 results were better than many forecasts ($5.59 against estimated $5.29) and Tier 1 ratio rose to 13.9% from 12.1%. There was a one-off loss in Brazil, shares are higher in European trading last seen up around 4.5% on the day.

Following on from the strong Asian session, European indices followed the buoyant theme eventually closing between 1.5 and 2% higher on the day. Bank stocks and industrials were the leaders with utilities and staples playing the supporting roles. Of course, this could change come the election results so all eyes will firmly be fixed on TV screens. Gold was another large sufferer today losing over $25 (1.9%) as confidence returned and “so-called” risk-assets were loaded back on.

By the time the US cash markets opened all the news had been absorbed by futures but we did see short-covering and renewed confidence take the DOW over 350 high. As you know expect the VIX was hit and was last seen down around 16% taking it to 18.80. Todays rally collects back just some of the lost gains from the two weeks but obviously there is still very much left to play for from tomorrow result. The election outcome will predict markets for the next few years so you can expect volatility from headline to headline over the next 48 hours.

It was not difficult to see where the exposure is along the treasury curve today. We saw 2 year yields rise by +3bp, 5’s +5.5bp, 10’s rose 4bp and 30’s by 3.5bp. This closes 2’s at 0.82% and 10’s at 1.82%; which puts the 2/10 curve at +100bp. In Europe Bunds held in a little better with 10’s closing 0.15% (puts US/Germany spread at +167bp). Italy was tighter closing 10’s at 1.70% (-5bp), Greece 7.23% (-38bp optimism over the Greek bailout), Turkey 10.21% (+9bp), Portugal 3.20% (-6bp) and finally UK Gilts at 1.20% (+7bp).

Now two terabytes of Clinton documents while in the White House have been stolen from the National Archive. The documents stolen appear to contain memos, emails, and other electronic documents from the Clinton White House. This took place while Hillary was serving as secretary of state.

National Archives officials presumed the drive “was stolen,” according to a April 2009 in a email sent by White House counsel Daniel Meltzer to Jim Messina, President Obama’s deputy chief of staff. This is yet another very strange event. No theft of this nature has ever taken place concerning all the documents of a former President.

Trump is wrong. Washington is not a “swamp” that needs to be drained, it is a cesspool and the stench is growing.

As Election Day nears, the Trump campaign has enlisted President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, to appear with the Republican nominee on stage. This has been really amazing for it drives a nail straight into the heart of this nonsense that Trump would be the one to start war, not Hillary. Indeed, it is Qatar and Saudi Arabia who have been funding ISIS and are adamant about overthrowing Syria so they can run their pipelines to Europe and compete with Russia. This is what the Middle East mess is all about. Since both countries are big contributors to the Clinton Foundation and Obama tried to sell invading Syria on their behalf, Hillary is the one who will send our boys to die in the Middle East so these two countries can build a pipeline. Putin appearing with Trump exposes the truth in this issue.

Political scandal have rocked South Korea with essentially the same influence peddling that the Clintons do. However, instead of praising their president as Americans and the media do with Hillary, South Korean prosecutors arrested two former top presidential aides Sunday for exactly the same thing that Hillary does influence-peddling and tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets now to demand President Park Geun-Hye resign.

Corruption in politics is now like a global epidemic by itself. It is showing up everywhere and this is really at the core of support for Donald Trump. His “drain the swamp” has touched that same nerve but 99% of the US media is on board with the corruption betraying the people. This is clearly a global trend and if we do not look around the globe, you will misread the domestic trend at hand.

FBI Director James Comey released an official statement saying that with respect to Hillary, “we have not changed the conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton.” There would be no new charges regarding “mishandling” of classified documents. The real story will be the Clinton Foundation. That is what could lead to TREASON. It is the only possible avenue that I would see that could lead to charges against Hillary. As I stated earlier, there is no way to impeach a president for acts PRIOR to taking office. They would have to charge her, put her on trial, and imprison her BEFORE inauguration to stop her. That just does not seem likely even if Comey had the evidence. It means nothing since she has been nominated as the Democratic candidate.

Despite all the hoopla, there was really nothing Comey could have done to stop Hillary. All the criticism hurled at him was partisan. According to sources, what evidence exists in the emails point more to corruption and the pay-for-play. That can lead top Treason if she is taking money from people who fund our enemies. That is the conflict of interest and Comey has not cleared anyone of that. Would he bring this charge up? Probably not given the state of wholesale corruption we are witnessing in politics.

I still “believe” that they will rig the election to prevent a Trump victory despite the fact that our computer projects a Trump victory and more importantly, that this is a major clash with people who want their country back. Already, Texas has broken all records for the number of people coming out to vote early. This seems to confirm our computer will be right on that forecast that this should be the biggest turnout for the past 23 elections.

Bottom-line is rather stark. Our computer has NEVER been wrong except one time – the election of 2000. There the Supreme Count handed the election to Bush and would not wait for a recount, which ultimately showed Gore should have won. So a Clinton victory will send us into war and the economy down hard and dirty. That appears to be more likely from the market perspective with the bubble top in bonds. But this will be a rigged outcome and that will send what she calls the “deplorables” into rising civil unrest.

NASA has reported that Antarctic sea ice (different from Artic ice) reached a new record maximum. Meanwhile, top Russian scientist Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, who is the head of space research for the Pulkovo Observatory at the Russian Academy of Sciences, has come out and stated that the new mini-Ice Age began at the end of 2015. Using data from ice core samples, our models also targeted 2015.75 as the turning point in the decline in energy output of the sun.

Human-caused climate change is highly scientifically controversial, mainly because the data set does not account for the natural climate changes over the centuries. The energy output of the sun has been totally ignored and advocates focus entirely on CO2 levels. This appears to be more like the myth that rising interest rates are bearish for the market because people only remember the last rate hike and not the overall trend that led into the high when rates were constantly rising.

Whatever the United States and United Nations can do to isolate Russia they seem to be doing without any regard for the consequences. Saudi Arabia retained its seat on the UN Human Rights Council while Russia was kicked off and Croatia replaced them. When it comes to human rights, one must ask, who made this judgement? All they seem to be doing is trying desperately to isolate Russia and to provoke war instead of peace.

QUESTION: Marty; You are very good at constitutional law. What is your take if Hillary is indicted? Will she be impeached?

ANSWER: A President cannot be impeached for crimes prior to taking office. Only those committed during their office. If Congress called her back as President for an investigation and she lied under oath, that would be impeachable. Nevertheless, this question would invoke Section 3 of the 20th Amendment. There is no Supreme Court interpretation of that Amendment and it would turn on the meaning of does she “qualify” to take office. This is what Section 3 says:

Section 3. If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.

Let’s begin that a criminal conviction DOES NOT disqualify you from becoming President. The only real qualification specified by the Constitution is “natural born” citizen. This is where the fight over Obama also began. For Barack Obama the question was whether he was born in Hawaii, which is U.S. soil. For John McCain the question was whether the Panama Canal Zone, where he was born, was U.S. soil. To make this clear, even if you are born of parents both of whom were U.S. citizens, this by itself does not make you a “natural-born” citizen under the Constitution. However, a statute was later adopted naturalizing such persons at birth. The authority for the term “natural born” is William Blackstone (1723-1780), in his Commentaries on the Laws of England, Volume II, in particular Chapter 10:

As to the qualifications of members to sit at this board: any natural born subject of England is capable of being a member of the privy council; taking the proper oaths for security of the government, and the test for security of the church. But, in order to prevent any persons under foreign attachments from insinuating themselves into this important trust, as happened in the reign of king William in many instances, it is enacted by the act of settlement,l that no person born out of the dominions of the crown of England, unless born of English parents, even though naturalized by parliament, shall be capable of being of the privy council.

… the king has also the prerogative of conferring privileges 53 upon private persons. Such as granting place or precedence to any of his subjects, as shall seem good to his royal wisdom:g or such as converting aliens,54 or persons born out of the king’s dominions, into denizens; whereby some very considerable privileges of natural-born subjects are conferred upon them. Such also is the prerogative of erecting corporations;55 whereby a number of private persons are united and knit together, and enjoy many liberties, powers, and immunities in their politic capacity, which they were utterly incapable of in their natural. Of aliens, denizens, natural-born, and naturalized subjects, I shall speak more largely in a subsequent chapter;

The Founding Fathers relied upon Blackstone. This is really the seminal authority to which we must refer. Now lets deal with the two possibilities assuming there is no indictment prior to the election. First, if Hillary wins the election and is indicted before the inauguration, this gets interesting and presents a constitutional crisis and would differ from being indicted after the inauguration.

An indictment is not a conviction. An indictment also does not disqualify a person from being eligible for the presidency any more than a conviction would. Therefore, should Hillary be indicted before she is inaugurated, it would have no disqualification impact. The only disqualifying result would be if she were to be denied bail or is sentenced to prison so in that situation she would then not be “qualified” to carry out her presidency from prison. Consequently, if Hillary was indicted after winning the election but before officially taking office, she would stall the proceedings to take office before her case concludes. Why? Once she is in office as President, it gets even more crazy. If Hillary is indicted and convicted prior to her inauguration, and goes to jail, then she would be deemed incapacitated, and therefore under Section 3 of the 20th Amendment, the Vice President-Elect Tim Kaine, would become President. So she would postpone any such trial to prevent being imprisoned before taking office. That’s not very probable that she would be indicted and convicted before inauguration. Such a process would never be that fast.

Our second possibility would be if Hillary wins the election and steps down before the inauguration, which given her tenacity seems equally unlikely. Nevertheless, should Hillary become President-Elect and decides to step down before her inauguration, for being indicted and there is a major public outcry, Kaine would become President. However in such a  crazy situation where a candidate steps down after the general election, but before the Electoral College actually votes, then under statutory law the electors would be able to vote for whomever they want in most cases. In theory, they could vote anyone into office including Joe Biden. That would really be a Constitutional Crisis.

What happens if the investigation continues after the election and Hillary wins and is inaugurated before a decision is made to indict her? This is where the “law” is unclear. Most likely, Hillary would escape justice completely, due to the principle that only Presidents are immune from criminal prosecution while in office. Here there was a Department of Justice memorandum drafted by the Office of Legal Counsel back in 1973 during the Nixon days. That memo said that prosecution of a sitting President would undermine the power of the executive branch and its ability to function. Nixon resigned and Ford pardoned him to prevent a criminal prosecution after leaving office. Back in 2000, a new memo was drafted reviewing that determination and agreed that a President is immune from indictment and prosecution for the duration of their time in office when Bill Clinton was impeached. Keep in mind, however, that no court has ruled on this issue yet so here we have uncharted territory.

Nevertheless, this issue was in fact argued before the Supreme Court by then White House attorney James D. St. Clair. The argument turned on what the Constitution says “The executive power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America” and that therefore includes federal or state prosecutions. St. Clair then argued that since the President controls federal prosecutions, then the President isn’t subject to them himself. I would not buy that argument and this is where an appointment of a Special Prosecutor comes into play. If a “Special Prosecutor” has the authority to indict, then this would seem to negate that superficial position. This would actually become the Roman position of a Tribune.

St. Clair did concede that the Constitution says that after an official is impeached and convicted by the Senate, then and only then would a president be “liable and subject to indictment, trial, judgment and punishment, according to law.” His twist was that a President is only able to be prosecuted after being removed from office. However, that line applies to all federal officials subject to impeachment. If other officials are subject to prosecution, then it cannot mean that a president is exempt without such a specific clause under strict construction (interpretation).

As always, courts avoid ruling whenever they can. At the time, Chief Justice Warren Burger decided that it was not “necessary” to rule on this issue. Consequently, we are in fertile territory with uncharted waters to answer the question if Hillary could be indicted as a sitting president after impeachment for something else she does while in office. Let’s say Hillary is called before Congress and asked about her escapades. Since she could be indicted AFTER office, would she then be entitled to assert the Fifth Amendment Privilege against compelled self-incrimination or keep saying “I do not recall.” Talk about confidence collapsing in government. WOW!

Therefore, Hillary gets lucky if she can step into office for it has been determined back in 1873 that Presidents cannot be impeached for offenses they committed before they took office. Therefore, Hillary cannot be impeached for what she did before the election, only AFTER she leaves office.

Article II of the Constitution says the President “shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.” If you want to see corruption at the extreme, Hillary could legally pardon herself. There is a really Constitutional Crisis.

Impeachment does not look plausible for her shenanigans prior to becoming President. However, there is a completely different angle to this crisis. Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort. No Person shall be convicted of Treason unless on the Testimony of two Witnesses to the same overt Act, or on Confession in open Court.

Hillary’s greed could be the Treason. If she took money from countries that fund ISIS and they are deemed to be our enemies, then we open a whole new black hole. The question would be if a sitting President committed Treason, are they exempt? I would say no possible way. So forget the email scandal. Look to the Clinton Foundation as the real huge problem for Hillary going forward. I would look to prosecute her for Treason and that would force the Supreme Court to decide the question and I seriously doubt they could allow a President who betrays the nation to remain in office.

If Trump wins, then he can indeed indict Hillary, Bill, and everyone at the Clinton Foundation on conspiracy.