EU Conducts Military Exercises Based on Civil War Theories

April 29, 2016

EU Prepares for Civil War

It’s coming. About 600 European police units and members of the military have carried out assault exercises intended to crackdown on civil unrest in Germany and other EU countries. The scenarios under which they are carrying out these exercises are based upon civil war-like conditions. Instead of reforms, they are digging in their heels for a fight. Historically, all governments fail when they turn against the people whom they see as an enemy when they demand political change or action.

Market Talk – April 28, 2016

April 28, 2016

Market-Talk -R

Many market players were expecting further measures from the BOJ overnight but was not to be! It was widely expected that further details of asset purchases would support both the Nikkei and JGB markets whilst leaving the JPY to weaken. However, a lack of action by the BOJ resulted in a 3.5% decline in stocks and a 3% rally in the currency. Things did not finish there as they continued to sell throughout the western day and by late New York trading Nikkei futures had fallen a further 3.1%. Shanghai and Hang Seng were little changed. NZ$ rallied 1.3% as a result of no action by the RBNZ.

Europe opened with a storm of selling following both the FED and the BOJ. By mid-morning these levels resulted in the days lows and we made steady progress back to unchanged. Deutsche Bank and BBVA helped proceedings along after DB reported better than expected numbers (+214mio v’s estimate of -484mio) their shares rallied 3.5%, whilst BBVA stock was up 7% (885 v’s 709 expected and on better Net Investment Income returns. Energy and precious metals also aided the momentum as oil rallied 1% and Gold/Silver around 1.75% each. Silver close strong, but tomorrow becomes critical if it can close above $17.75 then a test of last year’s high becomes possible. Gold also close firm hinting a retest of the high tomorrow is possible but here too we are up against the Weekly Bullish. If silver elects our number but gold fails, the ratio will come in further.

US markets opened weaker but a similar pattern to Europe, despite poor data but had recovered by mid-afternoon. However, within the last 45minutes of trading tech (NASDAQ) started to sell-off (probably led by Apple -3.5%) and as we approach month end, nerves appear and we are back down and pushing the days lows. DOW, S+P and NASDAQ all closing around 1% lower. However, after the bell we see LinkedIn and Amazon producing better than expected numbers with both shares rallying around 15%. Month end tomorrow so lets watch the numbers at Fridays close.

Treasuries rallied most of the day (good demand for auction) but expected given all the volatility seen across global stock markets. We close this evening with US 2/10’s at +104bp (2’s 0.78% and 10’s 1.82%). In Europe it was pretty much the same game with German 10yr Bunds closing 3bp better at 0.255%. This closes the 10/10’s spread at 159.5bp. 10yr Italy closed 1.48% (-3bp), Greece 8.55% (-8bp), Turkey 9.07% (+3bp), Portugal 3.14% (May hear of a negative credit change tomorrow for Portugal which, if happens, makes them below investment grade and so ineligible for the ECB!). UK Gilt 10yr closed 1.61% (-2bp).

Metals & Stocks Still Not on the Same Page?

April 28, 2016

PRIVATE BLOG

QUESTION: At the WEC you said that as long as the metals and the stock market are still fighting with each other, then the breakout is not quite ready. I assume we are looking at this probably by the first quarter next year which is why you are holding the WEC after the elections. Is my assumption correct?

ANSWER: Yes. The metals have some room to reach last year’s high as in silver at 1850, which is about 5% still higher if they achieve the closing numbers provided on the private blog. In gold, that number for last year’s high is $1307. In the Dow, it is 18351. Gold, silver, and stocks all rallied into 1980 from the recession low in the mid-1970s. True, the Dow went further into the following year when the metals peaked in 1980. Yet, historically, they do not move in total opposite trends.

Gold did decline during the Roaring 1920s as did silver, which peaked with the commodity boom in World War I. Gold was “money” so it acted separately from commodities. It declined in purchasing value into 1929, then it rose in value until 1933. This is what the deflation and Milton Friedman’s criticism was all about. There was a huge inflow of gold to the USA but the Treasury did not coin it. The gold and the dollar were effectively one and the same monetarily. This is why hundreds of cities began to print their own money because there was a HUGE shortage of cash as people hoarded and did not spend, despite the fact that, from a gold inflow perspective, there were excess gold reserves.

This why they devalued gold/dollar to revitalize the economy by inflating prices and wages. Some will argue that the only devalued the dollar and not gold, but gold was money so it too declined in purchasing power. It is really semantics like looking at a currency against the dollar as the euro at 1.13 or the dollar against the currency as .88 cents. They are both the same, it is just that you are charting one or the other.

When everything lines up as it did in the 1970s, then you will see stocks and metals rally in harmony against government debt. We need to exceed last year’s high in all three of these markets to signal the breakout. As for the immediate movement, that is discussed inside the private blog.

NOTHING APPEARS READY TO ROCK & ROLL UNTIL MAY

We have provided the metals update inside Socrates on that blog

Stock Market – What Next?

April 28, 2016

Up-Down-Color

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; At the WEC you said stay in cash not debt. You also said the stock market would dive in the first quarter the turn back up. I have followed the reversals all the way up and caught probably 80% of the move. Thank you. My question is simply are knocking of heaven’s door? Is it time to breakout or are we consolidating? I have found the Socrates preview for attendees a real asset for it has no agenda but forecasting.

Cheers;

B from UK

Dow GMW 4-26-2016

ANSWER: Well put. Stay in mostly cash, far away from fixed income. Yes, we are knocking on heaven’s door as they say in the Dow. The GMW has done a pretty good job for this rally. The Daily Bullish Reversal in the Dow that is important stands at 18137.50. We reached 18167,63 intraday, but could not close about that Reversal. It is possible to break through to new highs on the cash index. However, to do so we need that daily closing just to test the former high established last May at 18351.36. We need to exceed that high here in 2016 to imply we will continue to push higher.

Nevertheless, it is never wise to ANTICIPATE such breakouts because that is how people buy the high and lose a fortune. A daily close above 18010 will help warn that we may press high for a day. Keep in mind we are at the threshold in many markets. If we press higher after April, then we can see an early rally into June/July. But lift-off still appears to be next year in almost everything.

The issue seems to be CONFIDENCE. That must crack, and when it does, this will be confirmed by the breakout in everything.

Is the Supreme Court Acting Unconstitutional?

April 28, 2016

US Supreme Court

QUESTION: 

Dear Mr. Armstrong,
Re: The Ted Cruz/John Kasich Conspiracy and your comments about the Constitution and USC
In your opinion, might it be a crime to deny registered independents the right to vote in a primary?
Pennsylvania, one of only 11 states remaining with this law, is a prime example.
Thank you for a life devoted to the education of those with inquiring minds,
JS

ANSWER: Absolutely. Since we have created these “primary” elections, even though they are for delegates, once the state creates such a right it cannot deprive its citizens of it without violating civil rights. Now here is the real monumental problem. Does the Supreme Court act constitutionally or has it denied citizens the right to be heard as declared by the Constitution itself? We hear all this yelling about the Republicans blocking Obama’s Supreme Court nominee. The real issue is the Judiciary Act of 1925 and the court itself.

I specialized, not just in history, but also in the rise and fall of nations. Historically, a collapse in the rule of law is a key element in the fall of nations. I studied law intensely and some lawyers will often call me on constitutional questions. Why? When you go to law school, you spend very little time on the Constitution. The bulk of law concerns statutory law which is everything written and passed by Congress from civil rights to Obamacare. Very few cases end up challenging the constitutionality of a statute. Instead, they merely challenge the unconstitutional acts of government agents such as police and politicians.

Roberts was granted the power to uphold Obamacare as a tax but socialism is not part of the Constitution. The Supreme Court held that the Constitution is negative, meaning it is a restraint upon government, in Harris v. McRae, 448 U.S. 297 (1980). That means citizens cannot demand that government create any social program for there is no such Marxist component to the Constitution that people assume exists. By the way, once the Supreme Court holds a principle of law, it remains the law even if it was written in 1792.

I am going to make a statement here I have made to Constitutional lawyers that makes their eyes pop out. The Supreme Court has no Constitutional right or permission to exercise “discretion” to hear a case. They must hear every case presented to them for that is dictated by the Constitution and cannot be circumvented by a statute written by Congress or by its own rule-making practice.

The Supreme Court receives approximately 7,000-8,000 petitions for a writ of certiorari each term (year). The court grants and hears oral arguments in about 80 cases per year in a country of over 300 million. That is outrageous and this practice denies the people the constitutional guarantee of a tripartite government (3 branches) with each branch acting as a check and balance against the others. Let’s review what the structure of government crafted by the Founding Fathers created.

Marshall John Chief Justice - 1

Chief Justice Marshall was held in the landmark case Marbury v Madison, 5 US 137 (1 Cranch) (1803) in which he declared the role of the Judiciary branch. “It is emphatically the province and duty of the judicial department to say what the law is.” When the nation began, the Supreme Court justices rode on “circuits.” Each justice heard cases in their assigned circuits around the country for there were no circuit courts with federal judges. Article III, Section I, of the Constitution expressly states: “The judicial power of the United States, shall be vested in one Supreme Court, and in such inferior courts as the Congress may from time to time ordain and establish.” The Constitution guaranteed the Supreme Court. It gave the option to Congress to create inferior federal courts around the country, but this was by no means mandatory. The implications of this are quite profound for it means that Congress can close all the federal inferior district and appellate courts, but it cannot close the Supreme Court. The tripartite structure of government requires the Supreme Court – not inferior courts. Justice Reynolds explained this succinctly:

“The accepted doctrine is that the lower federal courts were created by the acts of Congress and their powers and duties depend upon the acts which called them into existence, or subsequent ones which extend or limit.”

Gillis v California, 293 US 52, 66 (1934)

Your constitutional right to be heard is being DENIED. That right is being circumvented by demanding you go to a district court judge, then appeal to that circuit court, and then apply to be heard as one of the 7,000+ petitions when they only accept 80. What if a child could not speak to his or her father and would only communicate to them through some nanny? Is there a relationship bond between the father and the child? Of course not. Inferior courts are under no obligation to apply even a uniform legal code. Each has their own rules and precedents are unique to each circuit. There is no guarantee to EQUAL PROTECTION OF THE LAW when these circuit courts are free to do as they like. The media never writes about this and does not find it strange that we have no unified rule of law in the United States.

Chief Justice Marshall also held in 1821 a very important decision holding:

“If the constitution does not confer on the court, or on the federal judiciary, the power sought to be exercised, it is in vain that the act of Congress purports to confer it…” 

Cohen v Virgina, 19 US 264 (6 Wheat) (1821) id/324

Congress reduced the power of the Supreme Court by eliminating the constitutional status of the court by enabling them to decide to hear cases at their “discretion,” but that is totally unconstitutional for no statute can amend the Constitution. Any statute or rule created by Congress, a political party (e.g. Republicans right now), etc. cannot circumvent the Constitution – PERIOD!

Judge Richard Owen

Owen Changing Transcripts

The inferior federal courts have become a joke. They are there to defend the government, not the people. In my own case, I confronted perhaps the most corrupt judge in New York City: Richard Owen. He had the audacity to alter the transcripts in court by changing the words people said to support the government. I submitted an affidavit outlining whole sections he removed. Many people showed up in court that day and lawyers were telling me I was crazy because you cannot accuse a judge of a crime. “They all say he does that,” I remarked. “Yes,” they replied, “but you cannot say that in public.” Since there were so many people in the courtroom that day, Owen became nervous and admitted to changing my transcripts, but denied making any material changes. The whole place went silent.

I appealed when he refused to step down but the Second Circuit refused to hear the case. Like police, judges protect each other. Since a circuit court would not take the appeal, I was denied the right to petition the Supreme Court. Strangely, when another judge changed the transcripts to help the defendant, the Court of Appeals in New York wanted to prevent that judge from practicing but they lacked the power to order a district judge to obey the law (see page 97, UNITED STATES v. ZICHETTELLO, 208 F.3d 72 (2d Cir. 2000) ). If the Second Circuit has no “power” to uphold the Constitution when violated by a judge, then who does?

There is no honest rule of law in the United States. We are no different from some backwater court in the sticks where the judge and the sheriff are family, or a third world country where the majority cannot read since it really makes no difference. This entire process is in direct contradiction with the rule of law. The federal court exists to protect individual citizen’s rights under the federal Constitution for it has been acknowledged that this is the core purpose of their creation (see Bivens v Six Unknown Named Agents, 403 US 388 (1971); Bell v Hood, 327 US 678 (1946), Marbury v Madison, 5 US 137, 177 (1803). There is absolutely no right to anything because the inferior courts all know the odds of you getting to the Supreme Court are virtually zero.

In Marbury v Madison, Chief Justice Marshall also stated bluntly: “The very essence of civil liberty certainly consists in the right of every individual to claim the protection of the laws.” (id/ 5 US at 163). Chief Justice Earl Warren stated in 1967: “It is a judge’s duty to decide all cases within his jurisdiction that are brought before him, including controversial cases that arouse the most intense feelings in the litigants.” (Pierson v Ray, 386 US 547, 554 1967). None of this has any force of law unless the Supreme Court is returned to its constitutional role and mandates the right to be heard.

Bank-Of-US

Princeton Bank Proof

We have no rule of law today all because of an unconstitutional Act of Congress known as the Judiciary Act of 1925 (43 Stat. 936). This barbarous act reduced the workload of the Supreme Court of the United States and in effect denied the right to be heard. From that moment on, your Constitutional rights all became discretionary.

Miss Uncut sheet The Real Estate Banking Co-r

This is the same chaos that was created when Andrew Jackson closed the Bank of the United States and every bank began issuing their own money, all of which defaulted in the 1840s. Without a central bank controlling the inferior banks, the financial system was destroyed. The Judiciary Act of 1925 did the same to our constitutional rights. The only reason I was released was because I won that lottery and the Supreme Court ordered the government to respond. I was one of the 80 out of 7,000+. You will never get in if you are not high profile and do not have a Constitutional claim.

The inferior courts are statutory and are not constitutionally required, and as such, they exist at the pure discretion of Congress. We have 94 U.S. judicial districts that are organized into 12 regional circuits. They are not bound to a single unified rule of law, which results in the denial of equal protection of the law.

The movement Black Lives Matter is based upon the issue that police treat blacks differently. Well, so does the law in every aspect because we have 12 circuits and a “discretionary” Supreme Court. The ONLY court secured by the Constitution is the Supreme Court. That’s it folks! If you cannot be heard in that court, then you are denied your Constitutional right to Due Process of Law. Therefore, someone in the 9th circuit in California will be treated differently from the 2nd Circuit in New York. The Supreme Court is supposed to settle such differences but is not obligated to do so. This is what the Judiciary Act of 1925 pulled off by undermining of our entire Constitution.

Previously, the Judiciary Act of 1891 created the United States courts of appeals and rendered a small part of the Supreme Court’s jurisdiction “discretionary” and subject to grant of writ of certiorari. This began the process of reducing the workload of the Supreme Court, yet it remained obliged to rule. In December 1921, Chief Justice William Howard Taft appointed three justices to draw up a proposal to further reduce the obligation of the Supreme Court to hear cases. This became the Judiciary Act of 1925.

Taft William

The Judiciary Act or 1925 was clearly unconstitutional since Congress could not reduce the jurisdiction of the Supreme Court. Yet, William Howard Taft (1857 – 1930) served as the 27th President of the United States (1909–1913) and then became the 10th Chief Justice of the United States Supreme Court (1921–1930). It was Chief Justice Taft who lobbied with Congress to reduce the role of the Supreme Court. This is up there with Goldman Sachs sending in Robert Rubin as Secretary of Treasury to eliminate Glass-Steagall, which was enacted because Goldman Sachs lost more money than any public trust during the Great Depression. The Supreme Court has never ruled on the constitutionality of the Judiciary Act of 1925.

franklin-2

Instead of arguing and blocking the appointment of a single Justice, let’s straighten out this mess and repeal the Judiciary Act of 1925. How about we then adopt the original proposal of Ben Franklin who said that the legal community should nominate judges instead of politicians. That was the system in Scotland and he proposed we eliminate politics from the judiciary. That is the only possible way to achieve a real rule of law.

This should be the real fight. To those claiming to be “conservative”: how about returning the Supreme Court to its rightful position as a check and balance against Congress and the Executive? The Supreme Court should defend the people for once and act as our last, honest Equal Protection of the Law.


 

Feel free to repost this everywhere

Martin Armstrong

 

 

Two Volcanoes Erupting Simultaneously

April 28, 2016

Snow April 25-26

COMMENT: Here in the Netherlands we had snow on april 25 and 26 2016. This is a rare event and could indicate your models on Global Warming are right. Could this be the start for colder winters in the coming decades.

EK

REPLY: Yes, it was also snowing in Britain. Unfortunately, when this cycle turns it does so rather violently. This is why we are looking to move the office to Florida to get closer to global warming for it is moving south. We warned that beginning in March, our models were turning up for the West Coast. So far, this seems to be on point. This is something we input into the system as a peripheral data set.

We are trying to update our models on a much deeper scale with specific data points on a regional basis. Earthquakes and volcanoes are also connected. We are getting unprecedented activity on the West Coast. There were two big volcanic eruptions this month in April. If this continues to build, the world will move rapidly into an ice age and our models warn that this trend will produce lower lows. Forget global warming – the danger is a global freeze.

Popocatépetl

Popocatépetl in Mexico

Popocatépetl volcano erupted this month just 35 miles from Mexico City and 20 miles from the nearby city of Peubla. It sent a mile-high plume of ash into the air, putting thousands of people living within a 10-mile radius on a yellow alert to be ready to evacuate should activity increase. Plumes of  volcanic ash block the sun and cause crop failures on a wide scale. A second volcano, also on the western edge of the ring of fire, also erupted this month in Alaska. These two volcanoes erupted at nearly the same time. This is indicating that there is a massive build-up of tectonic stress on the West Coast of North America.

Pavlov Alaska

Pavlov in Alaska

We warned that our models were turning up in March for earthquakes on the West Coast. The Alaskan eruption of Mount Pavlov volcano on Alaska’s Aleutian Island chain blew ash, stone, dirt, and smoke some four miles into the air before lava began seeping out. The Pavlov volcano is around 600 miles southwest of Anchorage. Neither one was a killer explosion. However, the more we get at this level, it can combine as if there were one catastrophic eruption that blocks the sun. All of this is connected. There is also a cluster of earthquakes in Yellowstone National Park where there is the super volcano. We are attempting to get as much data into the system as possible so it can make the global correlations. We are short of staff but we are trying to find the time to accomplish this rapidly.

Silver Warning

April 28, 2016

SVNYNF-D 4-27-2016

We will be providing a post on silver on the private blog tonight. We have generated a – P E R F E C T – Double Daily Bearish Reversal which is very rare. We will provide details tonight.

The Solution DVD

April 27, 2016

J100

The Solution DVD is still available. Both the full ($95) and 90-minute ($29.95) versions are sold by Amazon.

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