All posts in " Understanding Cycles "

There no such thing as Random Walks in Markets or Economics

March 15, 2023

  COMMENT: Marty, I really cannot thank you enough. Socrates called yesterday as the turning point and it was the strongest one of the week. We got the bounce when everyone was in a panic state claiming that the Fed would not have to lower rates. They really do not understand central banks as you […]

Where to Go?

March 14, 2023

A lot of people have been asking where to go, what bank is safe, and what’s next? This is by no means over. The fiscal mismanagement is off the charts and we have a major clash with the Marxist views of the Democrats who always want to punish the rich and then ask them for […]

The Myth of Fair Value

March 13, 2023

QUESTION: If the metals are not trading at a fair value relative to everything else, then does that not prove they are manipulated? SN   ANSWER: Your problem is the assumption that everything must be trading at some fair value. That is up there with the theory of random walks.  ALL markets trade for periods […]

Time is Always Fixed – Crude is the Example

March 6, 2023

QUESTION: Thank you for the interesting update on Crude & Natural Gas previously. Since Feb was a Directional Change and March is a turning point, then the cycle inversion for a March high rather than a low looks still choppy with no breakout. Since electric car demand has peaked, the Fed seems determined to get […]

Markets & Starlings

March 1, 2023

COMMENT: Hi Martin, Your blog, “Model & the 1991 Collapse of the USSR” for me was a major thought process change. I believed in the Random Walk down Wallstreet, not any more. The chaos model example of the Dow Jones reminds me of the migration of the starlings – link attached. I had a pet […]

Model & the 1991 Collapse of USSR

February 28, 2023

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/1991-WEC-SP500.mp4   COMMENT: Marty, I remember your 1991 conference when you said Russia looked like it would collapse by the end of the year. I think it was December 31st when Gorbachev resigned. But I also remember how we were talking about how key reversals were still reappearing but migrating to different time levels. You […]

Understanding Cycles

December 28, 2019

  QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I met someone who used to work for you. He said your models are far more complex than anyone imagines and that it is not a simple algorithm. He said you have relied on quantum mechanics which is why nobody has been able to duplicate what you do. Would you care […]

Sports Peaked with 2015.75 and NFL Has 15,000 Unsold seats

December 23, 2019

COMMENT: Marty; Your forecast that sports peaked with the ECM 2015.75 and would decline was really amazing. Socrates is monitoring everything and your explanation that sports would peak and decline was part of the cycle has proved that there are so many trends all interconnected. Fantastic forecast nobody else even thought about. GH REPLY: Yes, […]

Reversals – Energy – A Different Dimension

September 18, 2019

QUESTION: Hi Marty… I’ve been reading your blog for several years now. I’ve been trying to understand the basics about your reversal system is with no luck. Yet I’ve been trading stocks with only simple trend lines for years using basic tech A. PS I still don’t even understand how the Federal Reserve works either… […]

Page 2 of 16