All posts in " Understanding Cycles "

PRIVATE BLOG – The Object of it All

November 29, 2023

PRIVATE BLOG – The Object of it All Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit

Are Brenner & Kondratieff Waves Valid in Commodities?

March 25, 2023

QUESTION: Hello Martin, I have been reading you since your handwritten and from memory letters were getting out from your incarceration. You are truly an amazing man sir. I realize that both the Kondratieff and the Brenner cycles are mostly just coincidental to market cycles today but my question is are both the Kondratieff and […]

Brenner & Kondratieff Waves v Economic Confidence Model

March 25, 2023

COMMENT: Marty, I began following you in 1985. That is when everyone was using the Kondratieff Wave and admitted it averaged 45 to 60 years. They were all predicting another Great Depression. You were the only one right back then as well. I remember your advertisement in the Economist saying a new Private Wave was […]

Chaos & the Secret Order to Everything

March 18, 2023

Economics is the ONLY field where cycles are denied. Moreover, people do not even comprehend how COMPLEXITY emerges. Alan Turing was a brilliant mathematician who is probably the father of computers for he built the really first computer to break the German Enigma Machine. He invented the computer and broke the German Enigma Code. You […]

There no such thing as Random Walks in Markets or Economics

March 15, 2023

  COMMENT: Marty, I really cannot thank you enough. Socrates called yesterday as the turning point and it was the strongest one of the week. We got the bounce when everyone was in a panic state claiming that the Fed would not have to lower rates. They really do not understand central banks as you […]

Where to Go?

March 14, 2023

A lot of people have been asking where to go, what bank is safe, and what’s next? This is by no means over. The fiscal mismanagement is off the charts and we have a major clash with the Marxist views of the Democrats who always want to punish the rich and then ask them for […]

The Myth of Fair Value

March 13, 2023

QUESTION: If the metals are not trading at a fair value relative to everything else, then does that not prove they are manipulated? SN   ANSWER: Your problem is the assumption that everything must be trading at some fair value. That is up there with the theory of random walks.  ALL markets trade for periods […]

Time is Always Fixed – Crude is the Example

March 6, 2023

QUESTION: Thank you for the interesting update on Crude & Natural Gas previously. Since Feb was a Directional Change and March is a turning point, then the cycle inversion for a March high rather than a low looks still choppy with no breakout. Since electric car demand has peaked, the Fed seems determined to get […]

Markets & Starlings

March 1, 2023

COMMENT: Hi Martin, Your blog, “Model & the 1991 Collapse of the USSR” for me was a major thought process change. I believed in the Random Walk down Wallstreet, not any more. The chaos model example of the Dow Jones reminds me of the migration of the starlings – link attached. I had a pet […]

Model & the 1991 Collapse of USSR

February 28, 2023   COMMENT: Marty, I remember your 1991 conference when you said Russia looked like it would collapse by the end of the year. I think it was December 31st when Gorbachev resigned. But I also remember how we were talking about how key reversals were still reappearing but migrating to different time levels. You […]

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